u/lirin000

r/knicks r/startrek r/mtgfinance r/secretlair_collectors

Midweek General Discussion Thread

So we used to have a weekly general discussion thread on Wednesdays in this sub, I'm not sure what happened to it. Mods if this thread is something you cancelled intentionally feel free to take it down and I won't post it again obviously.

But if people like these general discussion posts, feel free to discuss whatever Magic-related topics you want below without needing to create a new post. And Mods, please bring these back!

reddit.com

u/lirin000 — 1 day ago

▲ 159 r/mtgfinance

More money has already been spent on Hobbit CBBs than Marvel on TCGPlayer

Hard to determine the exact numbers but...

2,222 Hobbit CBBs at roughly $780 (probably closer to $800) = $1,733,160

3,477 MSH CBBs at roughly $475 = $1,651,575

This is not a knock on Marvel (I really like it!), but the set has been available for much longer and most of the action has happened really around release date while Hobbit is still a week away.

Crucially Hobbit has seen escalating sales volume over the past few days as box openings have been posted and today prerelease started, and there's a big spike. Market price also hit a new floor around $820 and has been going up. Compare the two charts, do they have anything in common?

It's important also to recognize that Hobbit is a "small" set while Marvel was the big "tentpole" summer set of the year. Again, not a knock on Marvel but there have been a lot of posts/comments in this sub scoffing at Hobbit being"small" and "mid" and primed for a crash. Long term I think Marvel does well as more heroes and villain cards show up in subsequent sets plus the infinity stones and all that. But Hobbit is already smashing everyone's expectations.

Comparisons of Hobbit to Spider Man (which itself has been moving up a bit lately) continue to be thrown around... but is there any evidence at all that is the case at this point? Spider Man was absolutely cratering at this point. Hobbit is going in the opposite direction.

I went to a midday prerelease today and it was packed to gills. Everyone there was all smiles. The evening one was also sold out and so were all the weekend events. They were selling collector packs at $75 ($900 CBB equivalent with no box topper). Was that how Spider Man prerelease went? I don't think so?

I think it is inevitable that we will see a drop next week when the market opens to everyone, and I'm certainly not advocating buying at $800+. But if it goes below $600 I think I'm a buyer. At this point I'm skeptical that happens though. The boxes will be money in the long run and the special treatments will be too. It's crucial to remember that book covers show up in almost no play packs and literally zero of the LOTR reprints do nor do the Dwarven language cards.

Again, anyone betting against Tolkien in Magic is generally going to be on the losing end.

ETA: as of 7:30 pm EST the current TCG low for Hobbit CBBs is back up to $875. There are only 11 boxes under $900.

ETA: 40 minutes later the low is $899.99 with only three boxes under $930.

u/lirin000 — 13 days ago

▲ 190 r/mtgfinance

The entire Hobbit set has been fully spoiled, what does it mean for existing LOTR cards?

Without getting into a discussion about how powerful or not the new set is, or what new cards might take off, which is not my specialty in this sub, now that the long awaited/predicted "return to Middle Earth" set has finally arrived, what are the implications for in-demand (whether for playability reasons or collecting reasons) existing LOTR cards that have not been able to keep up with demand for three years now? The set will be a huge hit with Tolkien fans. Aside from whiffing on having a "Necromancer" card but still doing Were-Worms and Beorn turning people into bears for some reason, basically everything is on point. This will be a long one, so if you prefer low/no effort posts, this will not be for you.

First of all - a quick note - the LTR set (LTC is a different discussion although it's related for some of the cards) has a rather high number of commons/uncommons that are over $1, and a few that are $3+. Uncommons of course include the $15+ Nazgul cards, but also cards like [[Entish Restoration]] are $3 or so. Not bad for a set that was going to be "printed into the ground". I'll be talking about these cards along with the rares/mythics that dodged any reprint at all.

Lastly some of this discussion will be on the short term vs long term (i.e. I expect people are going to want multi-color Bilbos to build Halfling decks in the next few months but can't really know if that will hold up a year from now when The Hobbit is not on everyone's mind).

Ok so here we go! First, here's a link to the full breakdown of what's in the set, split into HOB and HOC tabs. All the reprints are in the HOC tab:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1EqSWZlDgFkOjkjjRbstM5TizUwNfVubdnVaKU82GWcw/edit?gid=2087470416#gid=2087470416

(special thanks to u/mistercimba for putting this together and answering my questions as new cards were spoiled)

Let's start with the fact that NONE of the realms/relics cards were reprinted (as expected), and NOTHING that was unique to the holiday CBB's was reprinted, like the Hildebrandt arts (as expected). I'm sorry but the ship has likely sailed on all of these. But if you're buying because you want the cards, it's really now or never at this point. Some people convinced themselves that [[The Party Tree]] would get reprinted somehow. No. Ridiculous.

I'm not going to focus much on what WAS reprinted because that's already been discussed and ultimately box toppers have done very little to affect prices in the past. Maybe some base-level versions of cards like [[Cavern-Hoard Dragon]] or [[Arwen, Weaver of Hope]] or [[Witch-king, Bringer of Ruin]] get hurt as people upgrade their Commander decks and those cards were probably inflated because they're only in precons or starter decks. But honestly? You have to pay $150+ for PBB at minimum to have a CHANCE to open a box topper. And they're only in about 1/3 of Collector Packs so they won't be as plentiful as other recent bonus sheets. So doubtful we get much price impact from these.

Much more important is what was NOT reprinted AT ALL.

VERY IMPORTANT: NOTHING FROM LORD OF THE RINGS WAS REPRINTED IN THE MAIN SET AT ALL. This is not what many people expected. Personally I thought they would AT LEAST do [[Mirkwood Spider]] or something similar, but nope, they made a new version for The Hobbit. That's a pretty big deal I think, particularly for the commons/uncommons that I mentioned earlier. And it means there is NO NEW MASS OF SUPPLY FOR LOTR CARDS. PERIOD.

For example, the landcycling cycle of: [[Lorien Revealed]], [[Generous Ent]], [[Troll of Khazad-Dum]], [[Eagles of the North]], and [[Oliphaunt]] did not show up in the main set or box toppers. All but Ent ARE however in the welcome decks. Anyway, there's no reason NOT to think that all existing versions of these cards are going to keep going up. These were ALL also in precons, being in welcome decks will mean nothing. Scoff if you like, but Lorien in scroll foil is a $20 card and sells regularly. Generous Ent is $10+. All of these are going to keep going up since they're the most premium versions of these cards and they are regularly played. Ent would be the obvious target here since there's literally zero supply coming for it. But Lorien and Troll aren't going anywhere because they're in welcome decks.

Now the big one: THERE IS NO NAZGUL REPRINT HAPPENING. PERIOD. I thought AT LEAST there would be ONE in the bonus sheet. NOPE! Caveat here is that they may still show up in a in secret lair. In fact at this point I would expect an all-Nazgul SL with nine new arts to show up for $100 or so at some point and sell out in seconds. One other note, in the "how we made the Hobbit" (or whatever it's called) article, they explicitly called out the "Ring Tempts You" mechanic as a mistake. They don't like it. So any reprint here is definitionally going to be limited. That mechanic isn't ever coming back in a new set.

Nothing really more to say here though, even if there is a secret lair or if there's a Nazgul bonus card in one of the Hobbit secret lairs (possible but doubtful since they're all very heavily The Hobbit themed) or in all of them, it won't be cheap enough nor will it have enough of an impact on supply. People will buy them and keep their original set of nine for sure. Get 'em while/if you can.

Next, let's talk some rares/mythics/other interesting cards that dodged ALL reprints:

From the scene boxes:

[[Legolas' Quick Reflexes]] (how!! Instead we got Elven Chorus?? crazy!)

[[Nazgul Battle-Mace]]

[[Galadhrim Brigade]]

[[Rammas Echor, Ancient Shield]]

Those are all $10+ cards. There are several other $3+ cards in the set boxes that dodged. But ultimately, all of the set box cards are likely to go up because it's unlikely they will be printing them for years, if ever. Again there's a CHANCE that there's some kind of supplementary set coming, or maybe some Secret Lairs around the time the Five Armies co-op set comes out. But none of these cards could be in a The Hobbit-themed set. The only exception is Reflexes, if they reskin it as something like "Bilbo's Quick Thinking" in the lair with the new foiling I could see it. So no large amount of supply is coming for these unless they reprint the scene boxes at some point. Unlikely!

From the LTR set and precons:

NO GANDALFS! No [[Gandalf the White]], no [[Gandalf the Grey]], no [[Gandalf, Friend of the Shire]], no [[Gandalf, White Rider]]. How is this possible? Importantly, Gandalf the White is a poster card. Gandalf the Grey is actually IN the Hobbit and works well with spellslinger decks like the new/red Gandalfs so that would be the one I would think people would go after for theme decks.

No Bilbos as I said earlier - notable because people are going to want a Bilbo Commander and all the Bilbos are either blue or white (in the co-op). Only multicolor Bilbos are in LTR/LTC sets. My money would be on [[Bilbo, Birthday Celebrant]] since it's in the right colors for other Hobbit lifegain type decks.

On that note, no Sam, Frodo, Merry or Pippin of any variety! [[Samwise Gamgee]] seems like the no-brainer move here because of lifegain/food synergies and it works with [[Bilbo, Fellow Conspirator]]. Particularly the surge foil showcase because it's extremely rare and looks underpriced for how few of them there are.

No Balrogs of any kind getting reprints.

[[Taunt from the Ramparts]]

[[Forth Eorlingas]]

[[Saruman, the White Hand]] - good with Amass and [[The Great Goblin]] as a result.

[[Galadriel of Lothlorien]] (could work with simic landfall themes but needs Ring Tempts You)

[[Farmer Cotton]] - food/halfing synergies

[[Warg Rider]] - Amass synergies and really should have been in The Hobbit!

[[Call of the Ring]]

[[Sting, the Glinting Dagger]] - mind boggling!

[[Gloin, Dwarven Emissary]] - dwarf/historic synergies

They also reprinted most of the legendary lands, but not [[Barad-Dur]] or [[Mines of Moria]]

Noteworthy Sagas with no reprint:

[[There, and Back Again]] (how!!!)

[[One Ring to Rule Them All]]

[[In the Darkness Bind Them]]

Poster cards with NO reprint:

[[Radagast the Brown]] [[Storm of Saruman]] [[The Watcher in the Water]] [[Hew the Entwood]] [[Spiteful Banditry]]

Other notable commons/uncommons that are not getting a reprint at all!

[[Lembas]] [[Cast Into the Fire]] [[Entish Restoration]] [[Rising of the Day]] [[Mirkwood Bats]] (although this at least is confirmed to be in one of the Hobbit Secret Lairs)

All of these are worth a look since they are relatively playable. Lembas, Entish and Mirkwood are Lord of the Rings IP. Cast and Rising are probably not getting reprinted outside of a Tolkien set.

Scroll versions of literally everything, even the reprints... going up long term. But particularly if they did NOT get a reprint, this is basically last call as they are the most premium versions, aside from posters and maybe borderless scene cards from the original release. Borderless/scene cards are probably worth a look too actually but this post is getting to Silmarillion level length already.

Lord of the Rings basic map lands. Particularly the surge foils, but I would look especially at any version with Mirkwood (forest), the Misty Mountains (mountain), and The Shire (plains) on them. These are all cheap currently, but they're almost certainly not going to be printed in large quantities ever again (as are the commons/uncommons I called out above) unless there are going to be large waves of LOTR set or draft boxes coming. But let's be real, while they will probably keep printing them for a while, eventually that's going to stop or will just not be as high a priority as their currently active sets (like The Hobbit!).

And finally, I wouldn't expect many more waves of precons anymore either. They only have so many resources and that set is now 3+ years old. They have to prioritize the new stuff they're doing and there's been a lot of evidence lately that they're struggling to keep up.

What do you think? Did I miss anything? Should I add anything to the list?

tl;dr: for the vast majority of the LOTR cards, as I often say, price of the brick going up.

Disclaimer: I own all of these cards because I'm a Tolkien collector/Magic player. I am also selling a handful of remaining scrolls and realms relics (literally a handful, like a few dozen). The vast majority of my LOTR cards for sale are bulk or remnants from precons that I did not mention here at all. Most of the cards mentioned I am not selling.

u/lirin000 — 20 days ago

▲ 237 r/mtgfinance

The 9 HOC Extended Arts have been revealed and they are NOT Nazguls

UPDATE: THERE WILL BE NO NAZGULS IN THE BOX TOPPERS. RAISE THE PALISADE TOOK THE LAST POSSIBLE SLOT IT COULD HAVE BEEN IN. The only chance now is if there is a Nazgul in one of the Secret Lairs. But they're all Hobbit themed so... not looking great!

Original Post:

Them printing Nazguls in extended art, not borderless, with no base version was always a long shot anyway, but this means we are at best getting ONE new Nazgul art that people will buy 9 of in the bonus sheet (which means it will likely be the most expensive of the bonus sheet cards) and NOT 9 unique cards. There are only two possible slots left for black cards in the box toppers, so unless they do the Fallen Empires era Goblin Grenade a/b/c finder numbers that's it.

Might add to this post about the actual new cards spoiled once I have some time to think about this, but AT MINIMUM this means all the individual art Nazguls are going to be EXTREMELY sought after and obviously the scrolls versions are going to become EXTREMELY expensive over time. The best time was three years ago, the second best time is probably any point between then and right now.

Unless they do like 21a, 21b, 21c, etc. in which case they could still do 9 different arts. But like, what are the chances of that?

UPDATE: These cards are going to be in the co-op bundle that's coming out early next year. "Collecting The Hobbit" article now has two of the cards and includes this statement:

>There are also 9 non-foil extended-art mythic rare cards from the Magic: The Gathering | The Hobbit Eternal-legal set that appear in Collector Boosters. Traditional foil default frame versions of these cards will be available in the Battle of Five Armies Co-Op Kit planned for 2027.

>We'll share more details about the Battle of Five Armies Co-Op Kit in the future. But if you want a hint at what it will include: it's interesting that Bilbo, Unexpected Adventurer references battles, isn't it?

u/lirin000 — 22 days ago

▲ 86 r/mtgfinance

Hobbit Previews for today so far (first one is possibly questionable since it's a "leak" not official spoiler)

Fateful Discovery is a leak not an official spoiler, but I think the most interesting/has the most potential of what we've seen so far maybe? Those are ALL artifacts, not non-token artifacts. Anything that cranks out treasures (of which there are quite a few already revealed in this set alone) also drawing a card for each one is pretty good I would think?

This site has the name listed as a real revealed card, so I think it's legit:

https://butwhytho.net/2026/05/live-from-magiccon-las-vegas-preview-panel/

The box topper reprints continue to have fantastic art. I'm sure people will be extremely rational/normal about the two new cards with Aragorn. [[Palantir of Orthanc]] was obviously going to happen, as was [[Aragorn the Uniter]].

Still waiting for any sign of a Nazgul, at this point unless the numbering system is totally off for this set there's officially no chance of nine Nazgul arts in the bonus sheet.

And with only a few slots left in the bonus slot, it's clear that there are going to be several substantial LOTR cards that won't be showing up. There's only room for one more black card for example, so if that's Nazgul that means no [[Witch-King of Angmar]] (notable due to the poster card being $200+). Genuinely shocked that they reprinted the one from the starter sets instead of that one. Unless they will actually do two Witch-kings and no Nazgul, or the numbering system won't hold up this time.

Actually technically there's room for either one more black card or two black cards and zero more white cards. But there's zero chance they aren't re-printing [[Gandalf the White]] I think. So it's either Nazgul or two Witch-kings.

Anyway you cut it, at this point it looks like several of the poster cards won't be getting reprints.

It also looks like a lot of the scene box cards won't get reprints. And several high value scrolls cards won't either. But we'll have all the box toppers by the end of the week I think so I'll wait to comment more on that until we actually know for sure what we have/don't have.

Particularly interested in what people think of Fateful Discovery, assuming it's real.

UPDATE: since this post they just revealed [[The Gaffer]] at 15. So I believe that means we are waiting on 13 and 14 in white and then two more in black. So still possible we get Nazgûl and a second Witch-king.

u/lirin000 — 29 days ago

▲ 168 r/mtgfinance

Updated Thoughts On Hobbit/LOTR After First Previews

First off, here's the link to the updated "Collecting The Hobbit" article with percentages for most (more on that later) of what I'll be talking about in this post:

https://magic.wizards.com/en/news/feature/collecting-the-hobbit

And here's a link to my first post RE: Hobbit implications for LOTR which I think holds up pretty well still:

https://www.reddit.com/r/mtgfinance/comments/1t1eou5/implications_of_todays_hobbit_reveals_for/

Will try to not rehash what I wrote there already, particularly my expectations for what kinds of cards would or would not show up in the main set (i.e. no Ring Tempts = no Nazguls or Witch King, etc). And yesterday essentially confirmed that there's no Realms/Relics anywhere to be seen, likely at this point ever again unless there's another another big LOTR set/draft box wave, and even then it's just box toppers. Rumors have been floating around that all LOTR sealed products got their last call already (so no more precons or set/draft boxes) but I don't think that's confirmed. Either way, [[Balin's Tomb]], [[The Dead Marshes]], and so on, are almost never going to see reprints again, outside of box toppers in a hypothetical future set/draft box reprint. Game over, man.

So now let's talk about what we learned on Saturday. If this is too long (it is), and all you want is some actionable stuff skip to the end.

Focus in-set seems to be on GOBLINS not ORCS. Bowmasters is in the bonus sheet (as is [[Sauron, The Dark Lord]], and the Amass Orcs mechanics seems to have been replaced by Amass Goblins. So that means it's highly unlikely we see many, or any, orcs in the main set. More importantly, unlikely we get anything with Amass Orcs either at this point. So no [[Saruman's Trickery]], no [[March from the Black Gate]], no [[Saruman, The White Hand]] or [[Sauron, Lord of the Rings]] from the precons. And so on and so forth. None of these cards are particularly valuable now, but at this point it's unlikely we ever get more of them. Also expect some more goblin support I would think, maybe almost as much as dwarves since Amass Goblins is confirmed (although it's possible they will also have Amass Dwarves or something else for Battle of the Five Armies reasons).
Likewise the focus is DWARVES not HOBBITS. Treasures rule, food less so (although there will be some food stuff). Elves will see some action too, and humans I would think as well based on what we've seen.
There seems to be only room for one blue card in the bonus sheet? My guess would be [[Lorien Revealed]] and likewise along with Troll above (if I'm right) maybe the rest of the land cycle shows up there. Since [[Generous Ent]] would ALSO want a reprint I would think. This is WAY out on a limb here so don't kill me if I'm wrong.
There's still room for [[Palantir of Orthanc]] and the legendary lands like [[Minas Tirith]] and [[Mount Doom]] (I assume Palantir and Mt Doom must show up). But we're running out of space quickly for a bunch of stuff. [[Gandalf the White]] has to show up in the white section, but will [[Gandalf the Grey]] be in the main set?
So far, ZERO precon reprints in the bonus sheet. And since there's already stuff from the scene boxes, it's less likely they will show up here. [[Relic of Sauron]], [[Cavern Hoard Dragon]], [[The Black Gate]], [[Forth Eorlingas]] (although that's dropped a lot) and others... If they don't show up, the LOTR precons will keep churning up up up.

I'll leave it to everyone else to figure out for themselves the odds of pulling things like Mox Amber dwarven runes or any individual card from the bonus sheet, but keep in mind that UNLIKE many/most recent sheets it is NOT one of the 40 reprints per pack. It's roughly 1 in 3 packs plus the box topper. That's WAY LESS. Now there's also the box toppers in the play boxes that will be numerous but as I mentioned before there were only 30 realms/relics cards (not 40), and being in the box toppers for set AND draft boxes really did not do much for them.

Three more things to think about...

1. Nazguls, Nazguls, Nazguls. If I'm right (and maybe I'm not, but I don't see where there is room for them at this point unless they really screw with the color numbering order), we will NOT get 9 different versions. That means the ORIGINALS and SCROLLS will be THE MOST desirable versions no matter what the art in the bonus sheet, since people will want one of each for their decks. If nothing like this is revealed soon, $100 for a scroll Nazgul will end up being cheap in the long run.

Secret Lairs are a wild card still -- I SUPPOSE it is still possible we get a Nazgul SL with 9 different versions, but if the Secret Lair preview is an indication, there are 4 Hobbit SLs (based on the different art styles) plus Hobbit food SL, none of which would be that. Also goes for everything else I'm saying above. Based on what we've seen I don't think we will get an SL that's all the land cycle cards for example.
There's something somewhat mysterious in the article, highlighted here:

What is this? The only HOC cards so far are scene box cards, the bonus sheet cards, or the dwarvish rune cards, right? All of those are already borderless though. Usually this would be something from a precon, but that... doesn't exist here. Any ideas/theories?

Final (actionable) Thoughts:

Realms/Relics are a must-buy RIGHT NOW. If you don't have them you're not getting them for any less. Same goes for the Hildebrandt reprints from the holiday set (although [[Diabolic Intent]] is in a Secret Lair, but the Hildebrandt art will be desirable nonetheless and they're not putting all of them in an SL anyway.
Vast majority of precon singles are not getting reprinted in any meaningful capacity. I'd be standing by with an itchy trigger finger on the most desirable ones from that set.
Majority of LOTR scene box cards are not coming back either. We have a few so far, but looks like one from each color. Will they use up a slot on [[Nazgul Battle-Mace]] for example? What about [[Anduril, Narsil Reforged]]? What about the other LOTR artifacts from the main set? [[Glamdring]] ? [[Lembas]] ? I assume [[Mithril Coat]] will be in the main set but it looks like they made a new version of Sting, so... I don't know? Either way, we're running out of space...

And that's it. If people like this, I'll be back with more in another week or so as more of the (actual) set gets spoiled.

UPDATE: It looks like Cavern Hoard may be in the box toppers based on this post, thank you to the people who pointed it out to me:

https://www.reddit.com/r/mtg/s/0FAnj6kBls

reddit.com

u/lirin000 — 1 month ago

▲ 88 r/startrek

Is anyone here interested in the upcoming Magic: The Gathering Star Trek set?

Hi everyone, never posted here before so apologies if this isn't the right place for this.

I'm curious if the overall Star Trek community is at all interested in the upcoming Magic: The Gathering set. They've done a bunch of crossover sets in recent years, and some have been bit hits (Lord of the Rings, Final Fantasy) while some have been... less well received... (Spider Man, Ninja Turtles).

I play and collect Magic, and while I would not consider myself a proper Trekkie, I did spend a lot of my formative years watching Next Generation and the original series when they had the reruns on. Most of the movies too.

For me it's pretty cool to have them together, although I don't know how "magic" fits in to Star Trek, nor how Star Trek fits into "Magic" (capitalization intentional).

So I figured I'd ask some of the real fans what they thought! For anyone who doesn't know what Magic is, it's a trading card game that up until recently was about wizards casting spells to defeat each other in duels. But with all these crossovers, it's a little blurry, although the mechanics of the game are the same. Just now, aside from summoning creatures/characters that were created by the makers of the game, you can summon Gandalf... and Peter Parker... and Captain Picard (or Kirk or Janeway etc etc)...

Anyway, curious what you all think! I don't see a way to make this into a poll, if there is a way I'll do that!

UPDATE: Looks like the reactions here are overwhelmingly positive! Wow! I didn't realize there was such a crossover between Star Trek fans and Magic!

reddit.com

u/lirin000 — 1 month ago

▲ 25 r/knicks

Some thoughts I had before - and after - Game 5

So I was typing up a pre-Game 5 post on Facebook, and then got cold feet because I was too worried it would look like I was assuming they would win and didn't want to jinx it. I've re-read it a few times since a couple of weeks ago, and thought I'd share it with other fans to see if anyone else felt like this too.

Having a lot of thoughts right now... I don't know if the Knicks will win tonight, or if they will win at all. But this is the first time since 2012 that any of my teams have had a chance to win a title (Yankees and Rangers most recent appearances don't apply because they never were in a position to win the series).

But this is different. The Yankees of course have won 5 times in my life (the last of which I got to be there for which was, prior to Wednesday the best sports game I've ever been to), the Giants 4, and the Rangers once.

The Knicks have never (in my life).

But even more so... The 1994 (failed) championship run is one of my earliest sports memories. More importantly, it was my first sports heartbreak. The Knicks losing just about a week after the Rangers won taught me something very important about sports - and about life.

Nothing is certain, nothing is guaranteed. Sports, and life, are not preordained. Nothing is given just because you want it or deserve it. Sometimes, it just doesn't happen. And for the Knicks, it hasn't happened since 1994.

I don't know if they'll win tonight, or if they'll win this series, or if they'll ever win in my life ever.

That's where I stopped writing before game 5 started and I got all superstitious.

This was even after being at the insane comeback at Game 4, which I still can't believe I got to witness firsthand. I still can't believe how they did that after being the receiving end of so many collapses over the years, thinking about it, the comeback against Atlanta should have been the first indication that this year really was different. Then the Cleveland comeback. And then Game 4 should have sealed it for me.

But looking at this post now (which stayed in my drafts just long enough for me to save it after game 5) it's so crazy just how beaten down I felt by this team - even after they were all up on the podium for the awards/trophies, I had this irrational feeling like, could they still somehow lose?

My first year as a season ticket holder was 2005. People laughed me when I would tell them I had Knicks tickets, and I always said "one day they'll be good and it will pay off". That day finally came for me at Game 4. Even though I couldn't imagine they would ever actually win, I never really gave up hope. Through all those miserable teams under 30-win teams (and a couple under 20!), and then the false hope of the Carmelo era...

Did anyone else feel like that over the years? Like you would tell yourself it was impossible, but there was still part of you that kept believing?

And at what point this year did you believe they could actually pull it off?

Were there any superstitious things you did to try and somehow influence the outcome, silly as it may be?

reddit.com

u/lirin000 — 2 months ago

▲ 52 r/secretlair_collectors

Not to freak anyone out but... Did they push back the Back To School drop?

Just checked my orders to see if Dwarf Fortress would maybe be shipped at the same time as the Chaos Drop and noticed it said "Initiated" but Chaos Drop says "In Preparation". So I clicked through to the Secret Lair site and now it says "Shipping Begins June 9th".

So then I thought well maybe I remembered incorrectly, but nope, my email confirmation says "expected shipping date May 13th". So... yeah, looks like we got pushed back a few weeks.

As far as I know though, "Initiated" means there is some movement, because the default is "Not Initiated". So maybe it's wrong? I don't know. I'm mostly curious what the bonus cards are going to be so I was hoping some people here would get them before me, which is what always happens in this sub. I assume everyone got pushed back though, not just me.

UPDATE: it’s delayed. Emails received confirm it. Oh well.

u/lirin000 — 3 months ago

▲ 218 r/mtgfinance

So! We finally have some idea on what The Hobbit is going to be, and so this means we can start to figure what is the most likely path for prices on existing LTR and LTC cards from the 2023.

First, let's get the big one out of the way [[The One Ring]] IS getting a reprint, however just as I and most others figured it is going to be extremely limited based on what we know now. Its presence as a box topper and bonus sheet card in Collector Boosters ONLY means it will likely be about as common as any of the realms/relics cards. Same goes for [[Sauron, Dark Lord]] and [[Tom Bombadil]] obviously and anything else they print. What I'm curious about is if they will be of varying rarity or if it's an equal chance (i.e. they're all "mythics") of getting any of the 40. That's how it worked with the original realms/relics.

So far all three of the cards shown were mythics, both here and in the original set. It's curious that they only showed mythics from the original set because [[Orcish Bowmasters]] was a rare... Also, for people speculating it will be more than 40 of these because The One Ring's collector number was 44, my guess is that the surge foils will be numbered separately so that's where the extra numbers come in.

My expectation would be that none of these will have enough produced that they'll make a major dent on the very desirable cards' original printings, although the fact they'll be in play boxes means there will be a continual supply of them being printed for the next three years of so. Still, that was ALSO true for the original realms/relics, and over the long term cards like [[Balin's Tomb]] are worth more today than they were when they first came out, despite having many previous [[Ancient Tomb]] printings AND another one in EOE AND a second wave of collector boosters with the holiday edition.

tl;dr: One Ring and other high-demand cards from the LOTR set will not see a major flood of new supply.

None of this should be a surprise though, and frankly anyone who expected the One Ring to be printed into standard or as a bundle inclusion should have their head examined. The Hobbit is not Lord of the Rings and Standard is not Modern.

Next, since they showed there will be dwarven rune versions of existing staples (perhaps in the bundles???) I would expect this to be a heavily dwarf-themed set, as has been the expectation all along.

Now onto some surprises...

The biggest news for me at least is NO PRECONS. So pretty much everything in this set is either going in the bonus sheet or going into Standard. That also limits the amount of cards/reprints that will be in this set by a wide margin. And I think it means that we will not see large new supplies of [[Cavern-Hoard Dragon]], [[The Black Gate]], [[Raise The Palisade]], [[Arwen, Weaver of Hope]], [[Relic of Sauron]], [[Forth Eorlingas]], [[Taunt From the Rampart]], [[The Gaffer]], [[Galadhrim Ambush]], or any of the other popular precon cards. Some of them may show up in the bonus sheet, but that's not going to be a lot of them. I suppose some could show up in the main set, but none of these cards (aside from Cavern-Hoard) make any sense to be in The Hobbit... which brings me to the next point...

(but first tl;dr: RIP to anyone who wanted the LOTR precons and didn't pick up any of them in this most recent/possibly last precon release)

...it does look like they're going to keep the main set true to The Hobbit. They said on the stream that there will be no Ring Tempts You and based on the cards they showed it seems like Adventure is the mechanic they're leaning on (which makes sense since The Hobbit is all about "an unexpected journey" after all) for this set. If there's no Ring Tempts You that means (in the main set at least):

No [[Nazgul]], no [[Witch-king of Angmar]], no [[Call of the Ring]], no [[Boromir, Warden of the Tower]], no [[One Ring To Rule Them All]], no [[There and Back Again]], and so on and so forth.

What's also implied though is that if the character/place/event is not in The Hobbit it almost surely will not be in the main set either and only maybe maybe maybe will show up in the bonus sheet/box topper. Aside from the Hobbit-themed version of the Ring, there also appeared to be a new Elrond. I'd be really quite surprised if most/all of the cards I just mentioned in the previous paragraph are NOT in the bonus sheet, but are they going to waste 9 out of 40 spots on 9 different Nazgul versions? Very unlikely IMHO, they'll almost certainly have ONE Nazgul, but not 9 new arts. So I don't think that will affect the original printings at all, since they're already uncommons and quite plentiful.

So that means also most likely no [[Minas Tirith]] in the main set, no [[Mines of Moria]], and no [[Barad-Dur]]. No [[Gandalf the White]], none of the Galadriels, Frodos, Aragorns, also nothing from the scene boxes at all so no [[Legolas' Quick Reflexes]], no [[Nazgul Battle-Mace]], etc.

And crucially, I think this means we won't see the land cycling common cards from LOTR either. So no [[Lorien Revealed]], no [[Generous Ent]], no [[Troll of Khazad-Dum]], no [[Oliphaunt]], and POSSIBLY [[Eagles of the North]] but I doubt it and anyway that one is the lowest value anyway. And don't scoff at these because Lorien, Ent, and Troll have all been steadily moving up, Lorien is now a $2.50+ COMMON. Disclaimer: I did buy a whole bunch of Trolls for about 50 cents each) a few weeks ago for this very reason.

I doubt we'll see the LOTR sagas reprinted either, and certainly not all of them. With a new art Tom Bombadil - that could matter.

Highly unlikely we get [[Last March of the Ents]] or [[Lotho, Corrupt Shirriff]] or [[Arwen, Mortal Queen]], outside the bonus sheet (where I do think there's a good chance they would show up, but remember only 40 slots means not everything will be there). And the vast majority of LOTR commons/uncommons/currently bulk rares and mythics will not be showing up anywhere anytime soon.

tl;dr if you were hoping for cheap Nazguls, forget about it.

Finally - it also looks like the realms/relics cards won't be reprinted either unless there's a SECOND bonus sheet that they didn't reveal today. So no Balin's Tomb, no [[Minas Morgul]] (Cabal Coffers), no [[Paths of the Dead]] (Cavern of Souls), no [[Glittering Caves of Aglarond]] (Gemstone Caverns), etc etc etc.

All of these cards - even the surge foils that caught a surprising reprint in the holiday release - have been on unrelenting upward grind. Unless they get power crept, there's no reason to think they won't keep moving up for the foreseeable future.

tl;dr all the LOTR versions of these staples are going to be quite expensive.

And now for some question marks...

[[Orcish Bowmasters]] and [[Delighted Halfling]] are almost certainly getting reprinted - but COULD they put them in the main set? Could they be in standard? I think it's possible that they try with the ban-hammer ready, but still the most likely home for them is the bonus sheet. Both COULD be in The Hobbit without breaking the lore. The most likely destination for them I thought would have been a precon, but that's not happening now.
What non-LOTR reprints will show up? If the bonus sheet/box toppers are ONLY LOTR-themed, that means any dwarf-related cards that people have been assuming would show up, like [[Dwarven Recruiter]] among others, would have to be Standard-legal to catch a reprint. Is that still likely? I don't know. Recruiter is probably fine, but doesn't really make sense in The Hobbit. Would have been an obvious include for a precon, but no precons!
Will the bonus sheet/box toppers have differing rarities or are they all "mythics" - the original LOTR realms/relics had an equal chance of being opened. Will that remain the case here? All three of the cards they showed today were mythics in the original set so, unknown as of now.
There's no Hobbit holiday release, so this is it. The fact that they announced another co-op set based on the Battle of the Five Armies that will be coming out in 2027 means we're not going to double-dip. Holiday stuff will probably be Marvel anyway.

Ok so that's it. With only 40 slots in the box topper/bonus sheet, anything else would have to fit into Standard. There are hundreds and hundreds of LOTR cards, so expect even the low level stuff - especially from the precons - to keep moving up. Anything with Ring Tempts You is not going to be in the main set for sure, so it would have to take up 1 out of the 37 slots we don't know about. Which means the vast majority of cards with that mechanic won't show up at all. If the place/character/event/spell is not [[The Hobbit]] it's gotta be in the bonus sheet or no reprint.

I think the ultimate tl;dr is there are NOT going to be a lot of LOTR reprints.

Govern yourselves accordingly...

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u/lirin000 — 4 months ago