u/mostly-bionic

It feels like every Giants fan and pundit is saying the same thing right now: sell everyone, dump the contracts, burn it down and start over.

I understand the frustration. This season has been brutal, and the pitching has been a complete disaster.

It is a running joke in my house that if the Giants are up 6-0 in the sixth inning, that just means the bullpen is going to give up at least seven runs.

Before anyone asks, yes, I used AI to help organize the stats and turn my rambling thoughts into one coherent post. The opinions and roster strategy are mine. Feel free to blame me for those.

I do not think this roster needs to be torn apart.

The Giants do not have a talentless team. They have a badly constructed and wildly unbalanced team.

There is actually a legitimate position-player core here. The Giants have been sunk by a lack of starting pitching depth, a horrific late-inning bullpen, uncertainty at catcher and a center-field situation that never really developed because Harrison Bader has been injured almost all year.

That calls for a focused and aggressive retool, not another five-year rebuild. Let’s start with the two hottest takes:

Keep Rafael Devers
I genuinely do not understand the push to trade Devers.
Since May 1, he has been producing like the middle-of-the-order monster the Giants acquired him to be. Based on that pace, he is comfortably earning his salary.
He had a bad start. So did half the team. That does not mean you immediately start shopping a 29-year-old star with elite power.
Trading him now would likely mean selling low, potentially retaining salary and removing the most dangerous hitter in the lineup.
It would also send a terrible message to future free agents.
Come to San Francisco, sign a long-term deal, have one season that people perceive as disappointing, even if the actual production is still pretty good, and the organization may immediately start trying to unwind the commitment.
That is not how you build stability or organizational credibility.
Keep Devers. Play him at first base and DH. Let him hit baseballs extremely hard.

Keep Willy Adames
Adames has not been perfect.
His defense has been a problem, and the contract becomes much more expensive in future seasons.
But his offense has recovered significantly since May, and his recent production is nowhere near the disaster people make it out to be.
More importantly, who exactly replaces him at shortstop?
Trading Adames would mean selling low, opening a major hole at one of the hardest positions to fill and then using money or prospects to find another shortstop.
That feels like trading in your car because it needs tires, only to discover the replacement costs twice as much and also needs tires.
Keep him. Work on the defense. Reevaluate his long-term position later if necessary.
Do not panic 18 months into a six-year commitment.

Keep Heliot Ramos
I would bet on Ramos.
He is 26, cheap, under team control and hits the absolute crap out of the ball.
The underlying numbers support what you see. He hits the ball hard, barrels it consistently and still has room to improve.
You do not trade that kind of player for prospects and then hope one of those prospects eventually becomes Heliot Ramos.
I would only consider moving him as part of a package for a young, established and controllable frontline starting pitcher.
Not a rental.
Not two teenagers in rookie ball.
Not because some contender offered a prospect who was ranked 14th in their system three years ago.

Keep Jung Hoo Lee
Jung Hoo Lee is really starting to come into his own.
I also think right field may be his actual long-term home.
He looks more comfortable there, his arm plays and it lets the Giants take advantage of his contact ability without asking him to cover the entire continent that is Oracle Park’s center field.
He is 27 and still adjusting to major-league pitching.
Moving him now would mean selling before we have even seen the finished product.
Keep him in right and let him continue developing.

Casey Schmitt should be the third baseman
This is where the roster strategy gets interesting.
Schmitt has been a better hitter than Matt Chapman this season. He is younger, costs almost nothing and, by the eye test, I think he is every bit as good as Chapman defensively at third, if not better.
Chapman has the reputation, awards and much larger defensive sample. I understand that.
But when I watch Schmitt play third, I do not see a defensive downgrade.
His reactions are excellent. His arm is ridiculous. He can charge slow rollers, throw from awkward angles and make plays from basically anywhere.
The comparison is not Chapman versus an empty roster spot.
It is:
Chapman at roughly $25 million per year
Or Schmitt near league minimum, plus whatever pitching or catching help the Giants can acquire using Chapman’s salary and trade value
Schmitt should not be bouncing between left field, second base and utility duty just because Chapman has a large contract.
Third base is his position. Put him there.

Trade Matt Chapman, but do it intelligently
This is not me saying Chapman is bad.
He is still a valuable player. His defense is elite, he has power, he is respected and contenders would absolutely have interest when he is healthy.
The issue is that the Giants already have a younger and drastically cheaper replacement who may be just as good overall.
That makes Chapman the most logical major contract to move.
The Giants should focus on getting controllable pitching or catching back. I would be willing to retain some salary if it substantially improves the return.
What I would not do is attach prospects just to dump his contract.
If the deadline market is weak because he is injured or because of his no-trade clause, wait until the offseason.
There is no requirement that every decision be made immediately just because baseball Twitter is bored.

Trade Robbie Ray now
Ray is the obvious move.
He is an older starter on an expiring contract who has been pitching extremely well.
That is exactly the type of player contenders overpay for at the deadline.
There is no reason for the Giants to keep him for two more meaningless months.
I would even pay most or all of his remaining salary if it improves the prospect return.
The targets should be:
An upper-minors starting pitcher with legitimate rotation upside
A real catching prospect
A package centered around a high-upside arm
Do not trade him just to say you made a trade.
But this is probably the best chance the Giants have to turn a short-term asset into meaningful future value.

Extend Luis Arraez
Arraez has arguably been the Giants’ best player.
He gives the lineup an identity. He almost never strikes out. He gets on base, makes constant contact and has been far more valuable defensively at second base than many people expected.
He is currently 29 and would begin a new contract at 30.
I think three guaranteed years makes sense, with a club option for a fourth.
Something around three years and $48 million to $54 million, plus an option, feels reasonable.
His hitting style should age better than someone who relies entirely on speed or raw power. His bat control is special.
There is some risk because so much of his value depends on batting average. If he goes from hitting .325 to .280 without adding walks or power, his value could fall quickly.
That is why I would not offer five or six years.
But three years? Absolutely.
Give him a serious extension offer now.
If he turns it down and someone makes an insane trade offer, listen. Otherwise, keep the best player on the team.
Wild concept, I know.

Move Harrison Bader if anyone wants him
Bader has been injured most of the year and was not producing when he was healthy.
The replacements have been better.
Drew Gilbert has gotten on base more and has been at least comparable defensively. The team has not fallen apart in center field because Bader has been unavailable.
If another team will take most of his contract, move him.
I would not attach a meaningful prospect just to get rid of him, but Bader should not be blocking the Giants from finding a better center-field solution.

Center field still needs an upgrade
Gilbert has been better than Bader.
That does not automatically make Gilbert the everyday center fielder on a good team.
I think Gilbert is a useful fourth outfielder who can start when necessary.
The ideal alignment would be:
Ramos in left
A new center fielder
Lee in right
Gilbert as the fourth outfielder
The Giants do not need another expensive power hitter in center.
They need someone durable who can cover ground, run the bases, play real defense and avoid being a complete black hole offensively.
A league-average hitter with plus defense and speed would be a major improvement.

Catcher needs stability
I am not ready to give up on Daniel Susac.
But I also do not want the Giants going into next season with an inexperienced catching group and simply hoping somebody figures it out.
They need a reliable major-league catcher who can handle a young pitching staff, control the running game and provide competent offense.
It does not have to be an All-Star.
It just needs to be an actual plan.
Catcher is too important, especially when you are trying to rebuild most of a pitching staff, to treat it like a spring-training raffle.

The starting rotation needs two legitimate additions
The Giants need one impact starter to pair with Logan Webb.
Not another back-end lottery ticket.
Not someone whose sales pitch begins with, “His expected ERA was actually much better.”
A real impact starter.
They also need a durable midrotation pitcher who can reliably make starts and prevent the bullpen from being asked to cover half the game every other night.
Webb and Roupp are a start. They are not a complete rotation.
A legitimate rotation could look like:
New impact starter
Logan Webb
Landen Roupp
New durable midrotation starter
Best young arm
That is a rotation that can actually compete.

The late-inning bullpen needs a complete overhaul
This may be just as important as fixing the rotation.
The Giants cannot enter another season hoping that three reclamation projects and a guy with an interesting slider will somehow become a functional late-inning bullpen.
They need at least two relievers with credible major-league track records in high-leverage situations.
Honestly, I would seriously consider spending real money on an established closer in free agency.
Yes, relievers are volatile.
Yes, closer contracts can age badly.
I understand the argument.
But at some point, a team that claims it wants to win needs somebody who can enter the ninth inning with a one-run lead without making the entire fan base start checking its blood pressure.
The Giants have enough young and uncertain pitching.
They need certainty somewhere.
Build the bullpen from the back forward:
Established closer
Proven setup reliever
Another credible late-inning arm
Then let the younger and more volatile pitchers compete for the remaining spots
They do not need to spend enormous money on every bullpen spot.
They need to spend intentionally on the innings that decide games.
An improved rotation would also help the bullpen by reducing the number of nights where relievers are asked to cover four or five innings.

What the lineup could look like
Luis Arraez, 2B
Jung Hoo Lee, RF
Rafael Devers, 1B/DH
Heliot Ramos, LF
Willy Adames, SS
Casey Schmitt, 3B
Bryce Eldridge, 1B/DH
New catcher
New center fielder
That is not a hopeless lineup.
That is actually a pretty interesting lineup.
Add two legitimate starters, rebuild the bullpen and stabilize catcher and center field.
Suddenly this team looks a lot more credible.

The bigger issue is organizational credibility
Trading Devers and Adames now would make the Giants less attractive to future free agents.
Obviously money matters most.
Nobody is turning down an extra $50 million because of bad vibes.
But when offers are close, players and agents look at whether an organization has a coherent plan.
Keeping Devers and Adames while fixing the pitching says:
“We understand what went wrong, and we are addressing the actual weaknesses.”
Dumping everyone says:
“We have no plan, and everything changes the second the standings get ugly.”
The Giants have spent too many years bouncing between half-measures, soft rebuilds, veteran stopgaps and pretending to contend.
Selling every good player because the pitching staff failed would just be another overcorrection.
Keep Devers, Adames, Ramos, Lee and Schmitt.
Extend Arraez.
Trade Ray.
Shop Chapman intelligently.
Move Bader if possible.
Then go attack starting pitching, catcher, center field and the back end of the bullpen like an organization that actually intends to win.
This is not a five-year rebuild.
They just might be one aggressive offseason away from having a legitimate team.