What happens to MF/CRE when long term rates keep rising?

Historically, class A MF cap rates are ~200 bps above the 10yr ... currently 10yr is 4.7% and rising meaning we should be seeing +/- 6.7% cap rated stabilized transactions - certainly not seeing that. Too much cash chasing deals that don't actually make sense unless you lie to yourself or your GP does...

Ergo, long-term rates are not coming down and the fed cannot change that unless they monetize the debt and create more inflation so your 4.9 cap acq still makes sense but your renter is paying $25 for a chipotle bowl and gas is $8 a gallon... and if long term rates keep rising above 5% isn't all of CRE basically screwed? What about all that CRE debt we hear about rolling over? What about the duration mismatch in long term gov debt that's rolling over? ... god forbid we go to war /s

and why risk any acquisitions w ops challenges and rising uncontrollables and flat rents when 10/30yr going to >5%?

Trying to find deals that makes sense currently feels impossible even if you have a $500M fund. Why sell when you're cash-flowing and valuations are down >25% from 2022/23? why realize a loss to your investors just to have no where to put the cash unless your forced to by a lender in which case your lps are already screwed?

... how much can I make as a plumber right now?

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u/mrman2121 — 9 days ago

What's your opinion on Blind Offers when soliciting for acquisitions?

If you reach owners asking if they'd sell, many may say "feel free to submit me an offer but I'm not sending you financials" or some version thereof, followed by very little more info... in your mind, are there any situations where it makes sense to actually submit a blind offer? or is it a complete waste of time? why/why not?

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u/mrman2121 — 2 months ago

First thing I thought when I saw Martin Malloy

Anyone else? Love this guy

u/mrman2121 — 3 months ago