u/neonmystery

Hello Captains!

“We’ve been trying to reach you about your car’s extended [dilithium exchange wait time.]”

If you haven’t already been experiencing it for yourself, the dilex is slowing down. Let’s jump straight into the numbers and then do a little discussion. We’re looking at the week of June 28 - July 3 today.

Week over week:
-The average queue was down about 2.5%
-The average periodic throughput was down about 4.4%
-The average wait time was about 44.6 days, up about 2% or 21 hours.
-We are about 1.5 days from the red line, down from around 4.
Special info! Day over day:
-The periodic throughput dropped by 2.4% between July 2 and July 3 offers. That’s the biggest daily drop (or change in either direction) by 0.1% since I started taking daily notes.

I don’t have a ton to discuss about this that I didn’t hit on last week. Just to recap, the end of the summer event brought a lot of dilithium into our pockets. July 4 took a lot of people away from their desks. If you aren’t logged in, you can’t trade zen. Let’s do a quick forecast before I uh, blow that all up.

The forecast:
-Offers made July 10 should be accepted around August 25.
-Offers made July 17 should be accepted around September 1.
-Offers made today might be accepted around October 4.

Including this forecast, I’ve been using the average of the last few days’ change in periodic throughput to take my guess at the future. Typically the oldest orders have the highest forecast accuracy because they have the least time left in the queue. But before I post my last two weeks of receipts, check out this correlation between queue length and periodic throughput for offers starting in June!

Queue shown in millions, periodic throughput shown in thousands.

So take this relationship into consideration when looking at the trend for the queue. It jumped up and was mostly stable for the first two to two and a half weeks of July. Then it dipped and slid again and a pretty soft rate to close out that month before ticking up steadily for the month of August. So let's all keep an eye on this and see if the pendulum starts to swing back!

Here are the receipts. Go live long and prosper and photon torpedoes.
🖖 💥

Offer Time	Queue Length	Finish Time
6/20/2026 16:32:30	11,753,690	8/2/2026 17:04:28
6/21/2026 18:02:31	11,761,226	8/4/2026 9:22:48
6/22/2026 16:57:45	11,782,954	8/5/2026 13:35:07
6/23/2026 17:02:50	11,761,716	8/6/2026 13:33:57
6/24/2026 17:15:08	11,824,170	8/7/2026 16:57:58
6/25/2026 16:38:27	11,753,706	8/8/2026 13:45:19
6/26/2026 17:29:50	11,670,753	8/9/2026 12:55:56
6/27/2026 17:17:59	11,659,229	8/10/2026 23:17:33
6/28/2026 17:29:49	11,672,307	8/12/2026 9:57:09
6/29/2026 19:17:12	11,560,531	8/13/2026 8:13:11
6/30/2026 17:40:03	11,496,306	8/14/2026 0:12:39
7/1/2026 17:06:31	11,437,645	8/15/2026 7:20:08
7/2/2026 17:24:15	11,271,523	8/16/2026 7:50:30
7/3/2026 18:09:31	11,136,448	8/17/2026 21:52:39

Hello Captains!

Recap!
For those of you who are not familiar, the Dilithium Exchange or "dilex" is a mechanism that lets players trade dilithium for zen with other players. This is handled on a first come first served to the highest bidder basis. On PC the exchange rate is essentially locked at 500d/z, and you'll have to be patient. I'm here to share some understanding of what's going on, and to provide a light at the end of tunnel for those of you that are waiting.

The offer date for my most recently completed dilex transaction is June 28, so let's look at the seven-day period of June 21-28:
-The average queue for that week was down about 0.6% from the week before.
-The average periodic throughput for that week was down about 2.9% once again ending the slowest trading period since before June!
-The average wait time for that week was 44.05 days, up 2.4% over the previous week
-We are about 4 days from the red line, down from 6.1 last Wednesday.
Once again I'll include the 14 transactions referenced here at the bottom.

While things continued to slow, the rate at which they slowed was less than the previous week. In other words, we're seeing what could be the beginning of stabilization.

The forecast:
-Offers made on July 5 should be accepted around August 18
-Offers made on July 6 should be accepted around August 26
-Offers made today could be accepted around September 25.
These estimates should be expected to be the most accurate for the oldest orders.

Thoughts on events near the offer times:
Let's take a quick look at what we had going on during that last week in June. We were nearing the end of Risa. Many diehards had already collected their Gomtuu and were getting their daily bonus dilithium. We were in the first week of a three-week Zen sale. We had double XP start on June 26, and a 72-Hr sale on promo packs start on June 27. We're also coming up on Independence Day in the US. A spike in real world activity could easily depress dilex activity. While your personal plans may vary, I don't think it's too wild to say we could be seeing summer vacations reflected in the dilex. In fact, the same might be said about the end of the year. While I started my survey in overdrive on June 1, my regular bi-weekly survey began with an offer placed on December 11, 2025. It was that offer that set my red line for lowest periodic throughput. This too could have been a result of people logging off and spending more time with their families during the holidays. Of course, this is all conjecture.

As promised, here are my receipts for the last two weeks of accepted offers:
🖖 💥 ... I'm not the only one that sees that as a photon torpedo, right?

Offer Time	Queue Length	Finish Time
6/15/2026 16:51:56	11,762,749	7/27/2026 18:47:12
6/16/2026 17:41:53	11,880,790	7/29/2026 21:00:04
6/17/2026 16:45:06	11,879,055	7/31/2026 2:27:13
6/18/2026 16:40:19	11,790,432	7/31/2026 14:12:00
6/19/2026 16:31:56	11,801,401	8/1/2026 15:21:50
6/20/2026 16:32:30	11,753,690	8/2/2026 17:04:28
6/21/2026 18:02:31	11,761,226	8/4/2026 9:22:48
6/22/2026 16:57:45	11,782,954	8/5/2026 13:35:07
6/23/2026 17:02:50	11,761,716	8/6/2026 13:33:57
6/24/2026 17:15:08	11,824,170	8/7/2026 16:57:58
6/25/2026 16:38:27	11,753,706	8/8/2026 13:45:19
6/26/2026 17:29:50	11,670,753	8/9/2026 12:55:56
6/27/2026 17:17:59	11,659,229	8/10/2026 23:17:33
6/28/2026 17:29:49	11,672,307	8/12/2026 9:57:09

Hello Captains!

For those of you who are not familiar, the Dilithium Exchange or "dilex" is a mechanism that lets players trade dilithium for zen with other players. This is handled on a first come first served to the highest bidder basis. On PC the exchange rate is essentially locked at 500d/z, and you'll have to be patient. I'm here to share some understanding of what's going on, and to provide a light at the end of tunnel for those of you that are waiting.

The offer date for my most recently completed dilex transaction is June 22, so let's look at the seven-day period of June 16-22:
-The average queue for that week was down about 1.4% from the week before.
-The average periodic throughput for that week was down about 4.5%, ending the slowest trading period starting in June! More on this below.
-The average wait time for that week was 43.27 days, up 3.2% over the previous week
I'll include the 14 transactions referenced here at the bottom.

The forecast:
-Offers made on June 29 should be accepted around August 11.
-Offers made on July 6 should be accepted around August 17.
-Offers made today could be accepted around September 15.
These estimates should be expected to be the most accurate for the oldest orders.

On throughput and the speed of the trading period:

Periodic throughput is a measure of how much Zen is traded on average per hour over the course of the sale. It is easily calculated by Initial Queue ÷ (Final Trade Time - Initial Trade Time). The slowest value I have for this since I have been recording is 9993. I've established a kind of doomsday clock that tells me how far at any given time we are from hitting that low. For lack of a clever phrase, I'm just calling it the red line. RL = Initial Trade Time + (Initial Queue ÷ 9993). At present we are 6.1 days away from the red line.

I'm still looking to correlate sales and events with fluctuations in demand. It's going to take a lot of time to be able to see anything. Taking a breather from trying to optimize my math. It's landing close enough right now. Until next time, thanks for reading, and enjoy the table!

🖖 💥

Offer Time	Queue Length	Finish Time
6/9/2026 16:31:29	12,344,313	7/22/2026 6:47:17
6/10/2026 17:00:11	12,301,704	7/22/2026 18:56:25
6/11/2026 18:00:31	12,095,878	7/23/2026 13:18:45
6/12/2026 17:52:28	11,943,067	7/24/2026 15:31:23
6/13/2026 17:01:49	11,778,490	7/25/2026 8:31:30
6/14/2026 17:24:41	11,661,045	7/26/2026 1:42:20
6/15/2026 16:51:56	11,762,749	7/27/2026 18:47:12
6/16/2026 17:41:53	11,880,790	7/29/2026 21:00:04
6/17/2026 16:45:06	11,879,055	7/31/2026 2:27:13
6/18/2026 16:40:19	11,790,432	7/31/2026 14:12:00
6/19/2026 16:31:56	11,801,401	8/1/2026 15:21:50
6/20/2026 16:32:30	11,753,690	8/2/2026 17:04:28
6/21/2026 18:02:31	11,761,226	8/4/2026 9:22:48
6/22/2026 16:57:45	11,782,954	8/5/2026 13:35:07

Hello Captains!

You know what I'm here for.

Yesterday my Dilithium Exchange offer from June 8 was accepted. When I placed the order the queue size was 12,306,214. Based on my start and end times, the hourly Zen throughput for that sale was 11,986 Z/Hr. My model assumes all offers are left in the exchange to completion because I don't have any way of tracking withdrawals. I know this is a flaw, but it's something I have chosen to tolerate. As of now, this is my most recent throughput data.

I placed a new offer on the exchange last night with a starting queue of 10,925,092. My first predicted ETA for this order is August 28. This is based on the throughput from the week leading up to June 8 and will be adjusted as offers made after June 8 are accepted.

Next Tuesday, July 28 I expect offers from June 16 to be accepted.
The following Tuesday, August 4, I expect offers from June 24 to be accepted.

My intent is for these updates to become more concise over the next couple weeks. I'm still trying to find the sweet spot in terms of how much context to provide.

🖖 💥

Hello Captains!

Throughout the month of June I really boosted my efforts to collet data. I’m still interpreting the results.

Previously I was getting data back every 14 days or so. My math was simple. Queue length at start divided by total duration equals throughput. Next start time plus queue length divided by previous throughput equals prediction.

I’m getting far more frequent data points back now. As a result, I’m feeling every little bump in the road a lot more. For example, between June 1 and June 2, the queue dropped by about 300k. The basic math would indicate that offers made on those two days would be accepted only hours apart. That didn’t happen. In fact, along with a drop in the queue, we had a drop in throughput.

There has always been at least one major flaw in this model. I have no way of measuring how many offers get removed from the queue, and so my model just assumes that nobody does. I know that’s not true. I know people cancel their orders. I’ve heard it anecdotally, and now and can see its shadow. This brings me back to the drop in the queue at the beginning of June.

We all remember what happened around that time, right? Gomtuu was released with a dilithium buyout option. The logic seems sound to me that a sharp drop in the queue with a decrease in periodic throughput means people were cancelling their orders. No, I can’t prove it. But now, when something like this happens it kind of jumbles my math, and I can only connect the dots by inference. If there’s a mass withdrawal like that overnight, especially one that’s larger than the daily throughput, there’s a chance that my prediction for timepoint B may be earlier than for timepoint A. The system doesn’t work that way, so I’m still trying to figure out a way to handle things like that.

Last time I checked in here I had predicted that June 1 offers would be accepted on July 21. That order came in on July 14. Put your torches down. That says more about the change in periodic throughput between May 15 and June 1 than anything I described above. Whether or not I can come up with a way to sniff out withdrawals, my prediction math is scheduled to stabilize by Thursday, July 23. Let’s stick with the Generations meme and talk about what I forecast to come in over the next couple Tuesdays – using math that’s still developing:

July 21 - Currently expecting offers from June 7 to be accepted
July 28 - Expecting offers from June 16 be accepted

🖖 💥

Captains!
My May 15 offer was accepted overnight. Here are the details:

Start time: 5/15/2026 16:02:15
Initial ETA: 7/3/2026 18:50:18
Real Finish time: 7/1/2026 0:39:03
Queue at start: 11,922,829

Initial ETA was based on the throughput of my previous order spanning May 1 - June 18 at 10,114z/hr over that period.

My most up to date estimate is that June 1 orders will come in around July 21, but no later than July 25. If we pass July 25, 00:47, that means we're in the slowest zen trading period since I started taking notes mid-December.

Post format is going to change coming up as my data density is about to multiply. I won't have anything to post until that June 1 offer is accepted.

🖖

Captains!
Dilithium exchange offers made on May 15 should be accepted within the next few days. I'm not really expecting to see this happen before tomorrow night. On the other hand, I'll be surprised if I don't see movement by the end of the day Saturday.
Check your dilex transaction history and set your expectations accordingly.
🖖

Final update.

My sale from May 1 just cleared. Look at your posting dates and mark your calendar accordingly.

Only 19 hours later than my initial prediction.

Average throughput for the sales period is 10,114 Z/hr or 242,745 Z/day. I had been placing offers almost every 1st and 15th of the month, and this is the second slowest throughput for any sale period that I've placed this year.

Using this number, *which may or may not hold true,* offers made on May 15 could be expected around July 4.

🖖

Following up on my post from a couple days ago.

A little frustrating news here.

The due date I established for dilithium exchange transactions placed on May 1 was June 18, 01:12 Pacific. This due date was established using information from my previous transaction initiated on April 15, with the timestamp and queue length on May 1. That’s why it’s so specific.

With the due date now behind us we know that despite some recent dips in queue length, fewer Zen are being sold on average per day over this period. We are looking at <10234/Hr compared to 10284/Hr previously.

I have significantly increased the frequency with which I probe the dilithium exchange, so I am hoping future forecasts land a little closer to the truth.

I have no other means to adjust the due date at this time. We’re simply overdue. I will post one more update for this period when the transaction clears.

Edit to add: the data I’m using is available upon request.

Captains! If you placed an offer on the dilithium exchange on May 1, your offer is likely to be matched in the next couple days.

Based on the queue length on that day and the transaction rate from the period starting two weeks prior, I anticipate <450,000 zen in the queue in front of May 1 orders. This would take a little less than two days.

This estimate is strictly based on the previous period’s numbers and does not include the influence of recent in-game events or discounts.

Anyone else play without any damage numbers or combat text? At any given moment there are so many damage numbers that could fly across the screen, that they’ve become meaningless to me. I don’t minmax very hard, so I’m not quibbling over the data. I turn difficulty up or down based on feel.

I see a lot of people complain about visual clutter from skills, but I don’t see many people talk about clearing combat text. Who’s with me?!