u/pacersnz

So with Smith finally inking a 2-way we have 14 full contracts on the books at a total value of $206.3mil which puts us about $5.9mil into the tax and has us about $2.2mil under 1st Apron, where we are hardcapped, meaning we cannot exceed that amount.

Contracts of note: Jarace Walker + Kelly Oubre - Walker makes $8.4mil + Oubre makes $8mil, simply offloading 1 of these guys would put is out of the tax line and create enough room to sign 1 player to a minimum deal. Walker would create $2.6mil + Oubre $2.1mil. Obviously deals become prorated as the season goes on, so the later Indiana do it, the more likely (in particular with Walker's contract) they could get 2 guys on minimum deals to have 15 on the roser and be below the tax. The other person of note is Ben Sheppard at $5mil, who won't get us under the tax line, but if out of the rotation, could save ownership a few million dollars being dealt.

I am not advocating for a trade by any means, but it is something to be aware of as the season progresses. The teams place in the standings, who and to what level these guys are contributing, and can they be used in a deal for a genuine upgrade?

It tis the season of absolutely nothing much happening, so I'll ask a question. We currently have about $2.2mil to spend, unfortunately a vet minimum (2yrs or more in NBA) will cost us $2.4mil. So right now we can't do anything, but by November 5th, we will be able to afford a contract.

So, who do you think gets it?

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I think our team is the most offensively balanced it has ever been after Siakam + Haliburton. So who do you think our 3rd leading scorer will be? What do you think they put up statistically?

Personally I think it'll be Nembhard at about 14-15ppg, but Oubre + Zubac will be right there with him.

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Some like this stuff, others do not, but this is how things look for our Pacers as we approach free agency.

C. Zubac / Huff / *Potter

PF. Siakam / Toppin

SF. Nesmith / Walker / **Furphy

SG. Nembhard / Sheppard

PG. Haliburton / McConnell / *Jackson

2-Way: Smith / Peter / Thompson

Free Agents: Kobe Brown

- So we have 13 contracts on the books, 2 are unguaranteed with Potter + Jackson, with Furphy missing the start of the season due to injury.

- Salary Space: So we are about $2.5mil under the luxury tax (following the very smart Smith/Jones trade) and about $9mil under the 1st Apron, which it looks like we may be entering this year.

- Needs: Chad Buchanan has stated (more than once) that wing depth and big man depth are still the 2 areas they'd like to address. Appears the front office is content now with Haliburton, Nembhard, McConnell, Jackson, + Smith all being in that PG rotation as required.

There seems to be a bunch of angry people (mainly on X) out there that all Indiana did was acquire Braden Smith and duck the luxury cap, for now. Well, outside of one of those Top 4 guys, no one was helping us win now from this draft, but now is the time to see if we will do anything meaningful as free agency approaches.

This is where those veterans and established players can be obtained to add additional wins to the column and have a meaningful impact over someone who is yet to find their place in the league.

So let's see what the front office has in store for the next couple of weeks.

Let us say we open up the full MLE, doesn't matter how we do it at this point, but it is something we can achieve. Personally I've had my eyes set on a Anfernee Simons, Quentin Grimes, and the like who would likely take every bit of that MLE to get them to Indiana. Listening to The Game Theory Podcast it got me thinking a little differently. What if we got some lesser talent, but more depth.

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This could look like signing someone like Kennard to be a bench shooter and then going out spending the rest on an upgrade at backup C. Alternatively we could try a trade that costs us a couple assets, but brings in say a Marshall or Bey then a big man the same way or via free agency again.

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So big swing or depth swing?

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What team is better?

C. Zubac + Huff

PF. Siakam + Toppin

SF. Nesmith + Walker

SG. Nembhard + Sheppard

PG. Haliburton + McConnell

OR

C. Zubac + Huff

PF. Siakam + Toppin

SF. Murphy + Brown (Furphy once healthy)

SG. Nesmith + Sheppard

PG. Haliburton + McConnell

It is pretty easy to see the question I'm asking here, and firstly I want to say that Andrew Nembhard is my favourite player on our team, but in any deal for Murphy his contract and talent makes the most sense.

We know what Nembhard brings to this team, but to say a 6'8 wing who drops over 20ppg (consecutive seasons), has a defensive rating equal to that of Nesmith, is a good high volume 3pt shooter, and the same age as your franchise player (Same age as Nembhard) isn't an upgrade in talent (key word talent) wouldn't be naive.

We've had time to digest those stupid ping pong balls not going in our favour, so what is your hope for the off-season: Swing big? Run it back (re-sign Brown)? Get into this draft to find some youth? Make a small move? Personally, I'm on the run it back/small move bandwagon.

My version of "running it back: is offer Brown an unguaranteed deal going into training camp and have him compete with the others (Potter/Jackson/Jones) for the last 2 or 3 spots on the roster.

On top of that, I'd like to see us aggressive in finding another bench scorer with the TMLE. The first guy I'm offering it to is Collin Sexton. He is a very efficient scorer, good volume 3pt shooter, and as a combo guard can play a little bit of PG if we have the need. Outside of that I'm looking at a shooter in Gary Trent Jr or Gradey Dick whose trade value is very low right now.

I know it is Sheppard + Walker's spots that I'm looking to add talent, but I genuinely believe by late November/early December we have Obi Toppin at backup C, so, Walker can slide to PF, Sheppard and the new addition can sort out those 2 wing spots with TJ doing his normal thing.

The way I look at this team is we have a 3 year window. That's how long Haliburton (& Nesmith) is under contract and I believe we will extend Siakam, Zubac, + Nembhard into that timeline as well. The reason I say 3 years is that is the end of the 2028-29 season when we hand that pick over to the Clippers. On top of that, I think it fits nicely with Siakam's likely timeline.

So my question is, what would constitute success?

Should we try get back into this draft?

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Obviously the draft could change this and if you want to throw the pick in there, then be my guess, but given we have a chance to bring the entire roster back how would you rank the players in terms of importance both as we start this season and beyond.

1. Tyrese Haliburton

2. Pascal Siakam

3. Andrew Nembhard

4. Ivica Zubac

5. Aaron Nesmith

6. Obi Toppin

7. TJ McConnell

8. Ben Sheppard

9. Jarace Walker

10. Johnny Furphy

11. Jay Huff

12. Micah Potter

13. Quenton Jackson

14. Kobe Brown

15. Kam Jones

Nembhard + Zubac are very interchangeable to me and Nesmith isn't far behind. I've probably put Nembhard 3rd as he is my favourite.

Toppin + McConnell are a tandem as far as I'm concerned, so again no real gap between, but Toppin can play a little bit of C + SF (very small amount, but we remember him vs. Miami and Jimmy Butler) and is younger.

Sheppard has a defined role for me, the shooting appears to be rounding into form, and he shouldn't be too expensive compared to Walker. Walker is nice, plenty to like, but I don't see his fit at this point.

Furphy could be the best defender on the team. His versatility is pretty impressive as he played SG, SF, PF, + C during the season. Health and outside shooting being the key things for him.

The next 4 are similar, I like Brown the most, but is is the 1 free agent. Kam Jones is a guy I don't see sticking around, but his contract does have a partial guarantee.