u/prasanth-g

We don't know what was discussed between Vijay and the governor but it is clear the governor is demanding proof of a majority. Many thinks Vijay should just give up on the meetings and go to the court and demand a floor test. But Vijay meeting the governor 3 times instead of rushing to the lawyers is actually the most brilliant move.

What happens if Vijay goes to the court? The court will order a floor test and if Vijay fails to prove his majority, he must submit his resignation. the governor can not propose a re-election immediately. Instead he should consult with the opposition whether they have a majority. If ADMK+DMK shows a majority, Vijay will only be an opposition leader for the next 5 years. So going to the court is a suicide mission.

The assembly term ends on May 10. Even if Vijay fails to show a majority before this date, the article 356 does not come into play automatically. There is no law which states a formal deadline for a government formation. So Vijay can still borrow time to prove a majority if he has a good rapport with the governor. He is surrounded by stalwarts and so far he is playing his cards right.

It is not the first time that a party failed to prove a majority despite winning more seats than any one. Here are some examples:

Manipur 2017: Congress was the single largest party after the election but they cannot prove a majority. BJP formed post poll coalition with other parties to form a government.

Goa 2017: Congress was the single largest party but BJP formed the government with a post poll coalition.

Jharkhand 2009: This is a more apt example. There was a 3 sided contest between BJP, JMM and congress and all 3 did not reach majority. Even after many negotiations with the governor, all parties failed to prove a majority. So article 356 was imposed. 345 days later, a coalition was formed between BJP, JMM and they ran the government.

Some examples where the governor invited the single largest party to form a government but it failed:

Jharkhand 2005: BJP was the single largest party but fell short of majority by 5 seats. The governor invited UPA to form the government. BJP soon gained support of 5 independent candidates and they paraded the candidates to Delhi and presented them in front of the president to show they have a majority. UPA's government lasted only for 8 days.

Karnataka 2018: BJP was invited by the governor but failed the floor test. So the CM candidate resigned.

Maharashtra 2019: BJP formed the government without majority. The government lasted only for 3 days before failing the floor test. The CM candidate had to submit his resignation.

So even if the governor or the court agrees to a floor test and Vijay somehow forms the government, it might not last. TVK knows this and this is why they are not rushing and instead negotiating with the governor. My assumption is that more parties will break their alliance to join TVK and TVK will offer ministry to other party's candidates. Showing a majority will be their priority than forming a government.