u/ptrdo

An estimated 3% of U.S. voting-age citizens lacked non-expired government-issued photo ID in 2020, with substantially higher rates among 18–19-year-olds, people earning under $30,000, and Black and Hispanic citizens.

Source: Hanmer, Michael J., and Samuel B. Novey. 2023. Who Lacked Photo ID in 2020? An Exploration of the American National Election Studies. Center for Democracy and Civic Engagement, University of Maryland, and VoteRiders. https://voteriders.org/article/why-americans-dont-have-id/

Across three recent presidential elections, most Georgia voters also appear in at least one other election. That leaves relatively few one-election-only voters and little support for a theory that large numbers of uncorroborated voters simply appeared that year.

It’s not just the sequence of counting that delays mail-in votes, but also the timing of voter verification. With in-person voting, verification precedes receipt of the ballot, while with mail-in ballots, ballots are received and then verified — in some places, after all other ballots are counted first. This takes time.

When new maps disperse voters into opposition districts—as done recently in Tennessee—this triggers a ripple effect that moves a corresponding number of opposition voters elsewhere. Margins get redistributed, too, making safe districts more competitive.

Gerrymandering is a zero-sum game. As maps are engineered more aggressively, margins can get thinner and more vulnerable to political shifts.

…Except when voting is suppressed or discouraged—even a competitive district is winnable if only one party shows up.