https://preview.redd.it/kwo0hxw6lguh1.jpg?width=1333&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=12d146db62cbb485d16f431f376b01377463caa4

50 days of calling top on the S&P 500. Time flies! I just realized there's a pretty hilarious irony I haven't appreciated until now: I've been calling top on the S&P 500 from one of its companies this entire time LMAEON

Reddit joined the index in August. In its announcement, the company's CFO said something deeply ironic: "Reddit's raw materials are special."

Now, he's not wrong. But what are those "raw materials". Well, it's you. And me. And all of us. It's our posts, comments, conversations, and communities. Reddit tens of billion of posts and comments, almost entirely generated by people who will never receive a financial stake in the company for their contributions.

TBC I'm not suggesting Reddit hasn't earned its success. I love this website (clearly) & that we're all here. But it's a microcosm for why SPX6900 exists.

Reddit is an exemplification of how the internet figured out how to get millions of strangers to create enormous economic value together without providing ownershiop in the outcome.

If the people are the raw material, why can't they own the outcome, too?

Flip the stock market.

"Wake me up, when septembear ends"

With Q3 in the back mirror, I thought we'd take a look at how stocks finished out the quarter.

September in review:
>78% of S&P 500 stocks fell
>60% fell at least 5%
>27% fell more than 10%

The index itself? Well, down about 0.5% (obviously!!!) - see the chart below (sorry about that)

Maybe this is what a top actually looks like.

Not everything crashing at once, but everything underneath the index breaking while a handful of companies keep the number looking fine.

#SCAMBEWARE

6900 supremacy strikes again

https://preview.redd.it/od217tb6hwsh1.png?width=1100&format=png&auto=webp&s=5afa28b7ab8fa32be04b07c3144b8ccdf074ad71

An underdiscussed point: the competition for the 500 is growing while it acts out of pure desperation.

On one side, the legacy index industry is changing rules to manufacture billions of dollars of passive demand for companies like SpaceX.

On the other, nobody is forced to buy SPX6900. Yet ironically, our onchain holder data in some of the best in all of crypto (2mo old, but great article on this here).

One side has the flows, but the other side is far hungrier.

Why? Incumbents optimize to preserve what they already own, but challengers? Well, they're playing to take it from them.

Happy Labor Day! Well, kind of happy.

Last week, labor’s share of U.S. business output fell to 52.8%: the lowest level on record going back to 1947.

:(

Meanwhile, productivity is rising and corporate profits remain near record highs. Stocks think they can eat our lunch forever!

Well, there's a slight problem: their workers are also their customers.

You can shift income from labor to capital for a long time. But what if the laborers build their own work?

I’m a little late to this album, but WOW. Now this is what I call music

DAE feel a cathartic energy listening to certain songs on this album? “It’s You” is an example for me - it’s so good it’s almost trance-inducing while completely sober

May sound odd but I think it’s the highest tier of compliment given the best art evokes emotion. Was wondering if anyone has had a similar experience!

For starters, I don’t mean for this to come off as unapproachable, but I am genuinely amazed at the quality of the people we have here and their respective actions.

2 years ago, when I joined SPX, the memecoin space was unrefined, but still aeons trailblazer. Spacey got a lip tattoo, Baproll DM’d half of the internet and Ideahazard hosted spaces daily for half a year.

But today, we have hundreds of people who show up daily in a completely dead market and spend nearly all their free time moving SPX forward. Many are doctors, lawyers, financiers, teachers, artists, builders, etc. who could be doing countless other things. Yet they choose to be here.

A literal army of some of the most ambitious, brightest young talent is working together for free every day (this is the topic of my next YT video btw)

And yet, the bar will continue to move higher. The value of social capital within the Cognisphere will rise as the token grows, and that will push Aeons to work even harder to earn their place within it (to be clear, I don’t mean this transactionally, but rather objectively)

It’s incredible what’s being built here, and it’s only recently that I’ve really reflected on how much has changed over the last 2 years.

We are building the next great nation, and anyone can join for free.

It is an honor to be here with you all. I love you.

And what it said was super interesting. I'm paraphrasing, but the tldr was as follows

GPT's Initial Reaction

But it said something far more thought provoking. It essentially said something that is already happening. Read the last line below:

The people's index is underway, and GPT has no idea

It then proceeded to give us a route to achieve this goal. I recreated it in excel:

SPX6900: The Journey to Flip

Anyway, figured I would share. I found it super interesting. AI = Aeon Influenced?

Intro

People love trying to call the top on the S&P500. They often cite random macro headlines or (e.g. rates are high) index metrics (e.g. high CAPE. See below).

​But I think there is a more compelling bear case: The S&P 500 is pricing a future in which American companies become dramatically more productive while needing progressively less labor. The system is eating its own tail. That is to say, the workers the index has stopped needing are also the customers it still needs.

Getting "fired" or "laid off" is not even the main fear an employee endures anymore. Instead, the fear is that if you lose your job, there may not be another good one waiting for you. The data is beginning to prove this.

People are fed up. They feel powerless. But what if they're not? More on that later.

Let's Talk About Unemployment

The U.S. unemployment rate was only 4.1% in July, so this is emphatically not a conventional “everyone is getting laid off” recession story. But nonfarm payrolls fell by 23K in July, payroll growth has averaged just 34K a month over the preceding year, labor-force participation has fallen .7% point since January, and one-quarter of unemployed Americans have been out of work for at least 27 weeks.

Yet, the index (Standard and Poors, that is) doesn't seem to care.

The market doesn't care about whether you are employeed.

​So while the labor market has weakened, Standard and Poors has continued marching higher. The stock market is perceiving this objective news as corporate productivity. Workers are pricing this as a permanent decline in the value in human labor.

While these two things can diverge for a surprisingly long time. They probably cannot diverge forever.

But this is just the first layer. If you dig deeper, it gets even more interesting.

Churn. That's right, churn. Here's what I mean in 3 stats:

1. Before COVID, the U.S. hires rate was around 3.8% and the quits rate was 2.3%. Today they're roughly 3.4% and 2.0%. (2019 data & 2026 data)
2. 42% of recent college graduates are underemployed, meaning they're working jobs that typically don't require a college degree.
3. The New York Fed recently asked Americans how likely they thought they were to receive at least one job offer within the next four months. The answer: 18%.

The labor market is freezing rather than crumbling.

​All this is to say, the great reckoning is clearly not current unemployment, it's future unemployment. We have worker illiquidity. You still own your job today, but you can't sell it to cash in a better one.

So AI doesn't need to take your current job, it just needs to take your next job.

Corporate America Needs Fewer of You (and Fewer. And Fewer.)

Sorry to be harsh, but it's quite true. The only place you need to look is the defining category of this bull market: AI.

Reuters looked at Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta and Oracle and found that between 2025 and 2027 their combined annual operating cash flow is expected to increase by roughly $340 billion, while annual capex increases by roughly $534 billion. Yes, half a trilly.

That's $1.57 of additional investment for every $1 of additional operating cash flow (source).

The 500 is paying big bucks (capital) to spend less on labor in the future (you)

​This explains a lot of what has been happening this decade in "big tech". Follow the money: AI is a capital-allocation story.

What does this mean?

There are two giant corporate expenses: machines and people. AI makes the first category more attractive partly because companies hope it will make the second category more productive. At first, this was a silent truth, but it's increasingly being stated out loud. Meta, Microsoft and Amazon are all now cutting employees while pouring enormous amounts of capital into AI infrastructure, increasingly treating compute as a more scalable, long-term value driver relative to humans (you).

To be clear, it's not about making every single job today obsolete, it's that AI makes the marginal new employee less necessary.

These companies would prefer to suppress hiring to mass-layoffs optically; they face much less political and economic backlash by reducing hiring than firing millions of existing employees.

Multiply some version of that behavior across corporate America and you can get exactly the strange economy we are beginning to see: unemployment that looks ok (and only ok), but a labor market that feels terrible.

Why Does This Matter? (Hint: Shortsightedness)

You may be thinking: “Okay, but Americans are richer than ever.”

Technically, you'd be right. American household wealth is sitting at $183T (insane).

But that money is increasingly concentrated amongst a smaller and smaller class of elites. I could cite all types of numbers, but these are the ones that matter:

>The top 10% of households own about 68% of that $183T.

>The top 1% own about 32%.

>The bottom 50% own 2.5%.

Perhaps you'd like a visual:

The system is broken and you know It. You feel it.

​That's right. Half the country is sitting on a rounding error, and stocks are even more lopsided than wealth in general.

And here is where the contradiction becomes impossible to ignore.

Corporate America is being rewarded for reducing its dependence on American workers. Great for margins. Great for Standard and Poors. Unfortunately, those same companies remain dependent on American consumers. Our final power lies with the dollars we spend.

The 500 needs us to play their game.

​You see, workers are also customers. Sure, you can automate jobs. You can suppress hiring. You can replace the junior employee with a model. You can spend hundreds of billions on compute because machines scale and humans complain. You can do all of that.

But you can't automate someone buying your product (at least, not yet).

If people merely think that losing their job means they won't easily find another one, they change. They save more. They spend less. They delay the house, the car, the trip, the whatever. The future feels more uncertain, so behavior reflects this reality.

I.e. worker illiquidity will show up on the demand side. So the S&P is pricing the productivity benefit of making labor less necessary, but it's seemingly ignoring what happens to demand if labor becomes less valuable.

That's the shortsightedness. The index is celebrating the cost cut while assuming the customer stays exactly as they were.

"Ok, Fine. Now What?"

I'm not saying AI is fake or that companies don't experience its benefits. Actually, I'm arguing that AI works. Extremely well, even.

But if AI works, companies become more productive. They need fewer marginal workers. Margins rise. Profits rise. Stocks rise.

That is exactly why this can continue for a while. That's why it already has. The market is heavily pricing what AI means for the producer: more output, less labor, fatter margins, but it hasn't begun pricing in what AI means for the consumer: less bargaining power, less job security, less confidence, and eventually less spending.

But this is where it gets interesting.

Because the game is still fundamentally reliant on the participation of the 99%.

They need us to buy their products.

They need us to work for their companies.

And after all of that, they expect us to invest whatever is left right back into their bundle.

They need us.

What if we don't?

The S&P500 is short the American worker.

But our remaining power is pretty simple: where we put our capital.

For decades, the default advice has been to DCA their index.

What if we DCA our own?

Unfortunately for Standard and Poors, we created a better index: The Scientific and Prosperous 6900 (exactly 6,400 more Ss & Ps).

They told us to buy their bundle. Too bad. We made our own.

We're going to flip the stock market. Position accordingly.

https://preview.redd.it/cffpefqnaulh1.jpg?width=2000&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=92425adc7dddb6e31223bebb43510df0cd60097e

6.9 ways SPX6900 could help Ethereum

I've been thinking about this a lot recently: SPX6900 is the killer app for Ethereum. The synergies here are unparalleled.

My basic idea is simple: Ethereum should want culturally important things to happen on Ethereum.

SPX is one of the largest grassroots, community-driven movements to emerge from the chain. If it continues growing, I think that growth can create meaningful value for Ethereum itself.

Here are 6.9 ways we can help them:

1. Onboard a new class of Ethereum users

There are plenty of people who don’t care about DeFi, staking, RWAs, or even crypto infrastructure, but they might care deeply about a cultural movement.

SPX can be the thing that gets someone to buy ETH, download a wallet, bridge funds, use a DEX, and actually participate onchain for the first time. We know this to be true in many instances

2. Create persistent demand for Ethereum blockspace

Every swap, transfer, LP position, and other onchain interaction creates economic activity.

A sufficiently large cultural asset creates an ecosystem around itself.

More activity → more demand for Ethereum infrastructure → more value captured by the network. Win-win-win

3. Deepen ETH-native liquidity

A larger SPX/ETH ecosystem creates another reason to hold and use ETH as the base asset.

More liquidity, more trading volume, more LPs, more integrations, and potentially more financial products built around the pair all strengthen Ethereum’s network effects.

4. Prove Ethereum can coordinate culture, not just capital

This feels inconsequential, but is a big deal.

Ethereum’s mission has always been much bigger than financial engineering. It’s about permissionless coordination.

What better demonstration of that than a decentralized swarm of people, with no company directing them, coordinating around a shared mission and propagating it globally? It's the perfect use case.

5. Turn a community into Ethereum evangelists

If SPX holders increasingly associate Ethereum with decentralization, permissionlessness, self-custody, credible neutrality, and censorship resistance, Ethereum gains something much harder to manufacture than TVL:

People who emotionally care about the network.

That kind of cultural allegiance is one of Bitcoin’s greatest strengths (nudge nudge, hint hint)

6. Attract builders

Developers follow users, liquidity, and attention.

If SPX becomes large enough, you eventually get wallets, trading products, lending markets, derivatives, games, social applications, prediction markets, payments, analytics, and other infrastructure built around the community.

Most of that activity can compound back into Ethereum.

6.9. Give Ethereum a mascot

Ethereum has world-class technology, but its cultural identity is harder for the average person to understand than Bitcoin’s.

A globally recognizable, genuinely grassroots phenomenon born on Ethereum could become an incredibly powerful demonstration of what Ethereum actually enables.

SPX could is evidence that Ethereum works.

Now, this isn't to say that the EF, Tom Lee or Vitalik need to become Aeons necessarily (although, I'd welcome that), but here's what I do think: if Ethereum exists to enable unstoppable applications and permissionless human coordination, then one of the biggest decentralized cultural movements happening on Ethereum should probably be proactively promoted as an asset to the ecosystem, not something beneath it.

Ethereum should want its biggest cultural movements to succeed.

Stop by: Tweet & YT link :D