
Israel’s next great threat may not be Iran.
Israel’s next great threat may not be Iran.,
by Joshua Hoffman, Future of Jewish, 2026-08-20.
> Abu al-Duhur is nowhere near Israel’s border. That makes Israel’s > action look disproportionate unless one understands what could > eventually be stationed there. > > The principal concern is not a few hundred Turkish soldiers. It is > what those soldiers might bring with them: drones, radar, > electronic-warfare equipment, combat aircraft and, most importantly, > advanced air-defense systems. > > Israel’s operational freedom over Syria has become one of its most > important strategic advantages. It has allowed Israel to attack > Iranian positions, weapons convoys, Hezbollah infrastructure, and > Syrian military installations without facing a serious air-defense > challenge. A Turkish-operated airbase equipped with modern radar and > surface-to-air missiles could begin closing that sky. > > Turkey would not need to attack Israel to change the balance. It > would merely need to make Israeli operations more detectable, > expensive, and dangerous. > > From Ankara’s perspective, the story looks different. Turkey argues > that it is helping Syria rebuild a national army after 14 years of > civil war. It wants a stable, centralized Syrian government capable > of restraining Kurdish forces, securing the Turkish border, and > facilitating the eventual return of Syrian refugees. Turkey regards > its military cooperation with Damascus as an agreement between two > sovereign governments. > > Israel sees a former jihadist movement governing Syria with Turkish > sponsorship. Ankara sees Israel bombing the institutions that might > prevent Syria from collapsing again. > > Both perspectives contain some truth. Neither country is acting out > of charity.