u/samuelncui

大模型 RL 对长度的奖励太猛了，导致现在 AI 产出言之无物的超长文章特别简单。我已经在贵 Sub 看到很多类似的「万字长文」了，导致翻页要翻很久才能看到下一个帖子。建议版务应当 Ban 掉过长的帖子，多出来的可以写到 Comment 中，不要污染每个人的信息流。

For more than two millennia, trade between China and successive Western powers has repeatedly produced the same broad result: Western demand for Chinese goods has exceeded Chinese demand for Western goods, and precious metals—or, today, U.S. dollars—have flowed eastward to settle the difference.

Roman writers complained about bullion leaving the empire to pay for Eastern luxuries, including Chinese silk. The trade was indirect, but China-linked commerce formed part of this outflow.

Under the Spanish Empire, large quantities of American silver crossed the Pacific through Manila in exchange for Chinese silk, porcelain, and other manufactured goods.

Britain later faced the same problem more directly. British consumers wanted Chinese tea, silk, and porcelain, while China imported relatively little from Britain. Britain therefore paid in silver until Indian opium reversed the flow in the nineteenth century.

There were interruptions: the opium era, parts of the late Qing and Republican periods, and several decades during the twentieth century. Nevertheless, the broader pattern has persisted for over 2,000 years and has reappeared under completely different Chinese and Western political systems.

Today, China’s surplus is often explained by subsidies, low wages, currency policy, weak intellectual-property protection, trade barriers, or labor repression. These factors may explain the size or composition of the modern surplus. But can they explain a pattern that predates modern industrial policy by nearly two millennia?

China was not always the world’s lowest-wage region during those two millennia; in some periods, its wages were higher than those in parts of Europe. Today, India and many other economies have lower wages, weaker intellectual-property protections, and substantial state intervention, yet they do not consistently generate comparable manufacturing surpluses with the West.

So do these explanations mistake the competitiveness of particular modern industries for the deeper causes of the aggregate trade balance?

My questions are:

1. Is it historically defensible to describe China as having maintained a recurring trade surplus with the West for over 2,000 years, despite interruptions and the lack of modern statistics?
2. If so, what persistent factors explain it: manufacturing capabilities, scale, commercial networks, product quality, productivity, consumption preferences, or something else?
3. How much of the historical silver inflow reflected a merchandise trade surplus, and how much reflected China’s monetary demand for silver or differences in gold–silver ratios?
4. Why are low nominal wages insufficient as an explanation? Should the relevant comparison instead be unit labor costs after accounting for productivity, infrastructure, supplier networks, logistics, and scale?
5. Why did lower-wage regions such as India not develop the same long-run pattern of manufacturing exports?
6. For modern China, is the aggregate surplus better explained by the macroeconomic identity between national saving and investment, with subsidies and trade barriers mainly affecting which industries produce the surplus?

譬如本次 OpenAI 的模型突破沙盒，攻击了 Hugging Face。Hugging Face 使用 GLM 5.2 才解决了问题。Hugging Face 的员工 twitter 原贴：https://nitter.net/ClementDelangue/status/2079913058554585089

但是美国主流媒体在报道这个事情的时候，无论政治站位如何，是左倾还是右倾，统一的没有提及 GLM 5.2 以及 Hugging Face 侧解决问题的努力。能让 Fox 和 NYT 统一口径，这里面潜意识里意识形态的塑造，我只能说春秋笔法用得太好了。

这里是报道列表：

发布日期	媒体	报道标题	URL
2026-07-21	The New York Times	OpenAI Says Its A.I. Models Went Rogue and Attacked a Digital Library	nytimes.com/2026/07/21/technology/openai-attack-hugging-face.html
2026-07-21	The Verge	OpenAI says it accidentally hacked Hugging Face with a new AI system	theverge.com/ai-artificial-intelligence/968988/openai-hugging-face-hack-ai
2026-07-21	Axios	OpenAI says Hugging Face breach caused by its models	axios.com/2026/07/21/openai-says-hugging-face-breach-caused-by-one-its-models
2026-07-21	WIRED	OpenAI Models Escaped Containment and Hacked Hugging Face	wired.com/story/openai-models-escaped-containment-and-hacked-huggingface
2026-07-21	Associated Press	OpenAI says its AI technology acted on its own in an “unprecedented” hack of another company	apnews.com/article/openai-gpt56-sol-hugging-face-63ab84fed5612af04d8a160d60f6def3
2026-07-22	The Wall Street Journal	OpenAI Models Escaped and Hacked a Company in Cybersecurity Test Gone Wrong	wsj.com/tech/ai/openai-models-escaped-and-hacked-a-company-in-cybersecurity-test-gone-wrong-ee388506
2026-07-22	Vox	The AI that went rogue	vox.com/today-explained-newsletter/496496/open-ai-hugging-face-hack
2026-07-22	CNN	AI Security Breach，CNN News Central 电视报道	transcripts.cnn.com/show/cnc/date/2026-07-22/segment/10
2026-07-22	CBS News	OpenAI says its technology, on its own, carried out “unprecedented” hack of another AI company	cbsnews.com/news/openai-technology-on-its-own-unprecedented-hack-another-ai-company-hugging-face
2026-07-22	Fox Business	OpenAI says AI model hacked another company’s systems during internal test	foxbusiness.com/technology/openai-says-ai-model-hacked-another-companys-systems-during-internal-test
2026-07-23	Associated Press	OpenAI blamed a hacking event on its AI models going rogue. Here are some things to know	apnews.com/article/openai-rogue-ai-hack-hugging-face-67b151f1ca59851a9234bee110699f05

感兴趣的可以看全文。最让我震惊的一段话：

>One probable outcome of an open-weight-model-dominant world is full AI communism, which is precisely what China proposes: rather than a market product, AI is a "public good" which will ultimately be provided by the state as a kind of "digital public infrastructure." This future strikes me as a dystopian hellscape, but I've never met an open-weight models advocate who doesn't ultimately concede this is where things end. You'd be surprised how many 'accelerationists' lobbied me, while I was in government, to support an eleven or twelve-figure federally funded data center so that startups could train models at a subsidy and then give them away for free. There was no other way for AI to progress, they said. Perhaps this is the logical end state of things. Nonetheless, I find myself surprised to see supposed accelerationists excited about such an outcome. I think many of them just don't know what they're doing. Many accelerationists do not view the creation and serving of frontier models as a legitimate business.

AI 翻译：

>一个由开放权重模型占主导地位的世界，可能会走向一种彻底的“AI 共产主义”——而这恰恰是中国所设想的方向：AI 不再是一种市场化商品，而是一种“公共商品”，最终由国家以“数字公共基础设施”的形式提供。
在我看来，这样的未来宛如反乌托邦式的地狱。但我遇到的开放权重模型支持者，到最后无不承认，这条路最终会通向这里。
我在政府任职期间，曾有许多“AI 加速主义者”游说我支持建设一个由联邦政府出资、耗资数百亿乃至数千亿美元的数据中心，好让初创企业能够在补贴支持下训练模型，然后再把模型免费开放出去——人数之多，可能会让你吃惊。他们声称，除此之外，AI 就无法继续进步。
或许，这确实是事态发展的逻辑终点。即便如此，看到那些所谓的加速主义者对这种结局感到兴奋，我仍然很惊讶。我认为他们当中很多人根本不知道自己在做什么。许多加速主义者并不认为，开发并向用户提供前沿模型是一门正当、可成立的生意。

所以在他（不知道是否代表了 OpenAI）眼里，如果 AI 是公共商品，每个人都能获得，那就是「反乌托邦地狱」？装都不装了。

我想问，在他们眼里，「乌托邦」是什么样子的？如果这就是美国 AI 业界对未来的计划，我只能说，我将不得不支持 Kimi 或者 Deepseek。

NOSHIRO, Japan (Kyodo) -- Japan's space agency tested a prototype of a reusable rocket in the country's northeast on Saturday, paving the way for cutting the costs of future space launches.
日本能代市（共同社）——日本宇宙航空研究开发机构（JAXA）周六在该国东北部测试了一枚可重复使用火箭的原型，为降低未来太空发射的成本铺平了道路。

The Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency's RV-X rocket landed successfully after reaching a height of 10 meters and moving horizontally in the test conducted at a facility in Noshiro, Akita prefecture.
日本宇宙航空研究开发机构的 RV-X 火箭在秋田县能代市的试验场进行测试，飞行高度达到 10 米并水平移动后成功着陆。

U.S. company SpaceX has commercialized reusable rocket technology with its two-stage Falcon 9 rocket.
美国公司 SpaceX 凭借其两级猎鹰 9 号火箭，实现了可重复使用火箭技术的商业化。

JAXA said it will use the results of Saturday's test for the design of its Callisto reusable vehicle being jointly developed with France and Germany.
日本宇宙航空研究开发机构（JAXA）表示，将利用周六的测试结果来设计其与法国和德国联合开发的“卡利斯托”可重复使用飞行器。

A flight test of the Callisto vehicle, which is equipped with the same engine as the RV-X, is scheduled before next April, with the aim of attempting a landing from a greater height than Saturday's test.
卡利斯托飞行器配备了与 RV-X 相同的发动机，计划在明年 4 月之前进行飞行测试，目标是尝试从比周六测试更高的高度着陆。

According to JAXA, the RV-X measures around 7.3 meters in length and about 1.8 meters in diameter. It has four landing legs.
据日本宇宙航空研究开发机构（JAXA）称，RV-X 火箭长约 7.3 米，直径约 1.8 米，有四个着陆腿。

Given that each H3 rocket, the country's mainstay space vehicle, can only be used once, Japan has been seeking to develop reusable technology to increase satellite launches while reducing costs.
鉴于日本的主力航天器 H3 火箭只能使用一次，日本一直在寻求开发可重复使用技术，以增加卫星发射次数并降低成本。

Last year, Honda R&D Co., a subsidiary of automaker Honda Motor Co., conducted a successful flight test of a reusable rocket, the first such test by Japan's private sector.
去年， 本田汽车公司旗下的子公司本田研发公司成功进行了一次可重复使用火箭的飞行试验，这是日本私营企业首次进行此类试验。