Updated analysis: >400 matches at >2,100 rating.
(Previous post context): Hi all, I ran this analysis about a week ago for all matches >1,400. https://www.reddit.com/r/worldofpvp/comments/1tfm3wm/some_fun_analysis_of_ss_games_and_outcomes/
This was designed to be representative of "the average person's experience", but there were questions raised about the higher rating games, hence I have repeated this analysis now with >400 games at >2,100 rating.
Methodology: This is from wowarenalogs.com, I pulled 413 most recent rounds at 2100+ rating, and only those that completed 6 rounds. Happy to share my workings (not very complex) if anyone wants - incl. links to rounds.
Potential outcomes: Note that if we look only at combinations and not permutation for a given role (ie we're treating 6-0 and 0-6 as the same thing for healers), there are only 7 outcomes assuming that 6 rounds are completed - they are outlined below.
Results: Here's how often each of the 7 combinations were observed in the 413 rounds:
This time, I've added the comparison to 1400 (to the right).
My observations (initial ones - keen to see what others add):
- Healers go 3-3 slightly more often at 2100 (35% vs 30% of the time at 1400). The increase is not due to more DPS sweeps (6-0 or 0-6) but rather from the other pattern (DPS wins 4,4,2,2). Note it's still only ~1/3rd of the time that healers go 3-3.
- It's still about ~28% chance for DPS to go 3-3... so it's not that they see it THAT much less often, but what's fascinating to me is that it's almost never from a 6-0 healer clean sweep at 2100 (only 2% of the time)
- So from the above, while it might feel more common, the data indicates that a 3-3 for a healer is only ~30-35% of the time, and that it's not much less common for DPS. HOWEVER, it might be much more frustrating for healers as most of the time is due to a DPS sweep (6-0 or 0-6) and it's almost never due to a healer sweep for DPS.
Keen for anyone else's observations? 😄
