u/sean_ireland

I am literally shaking right now. Last night I am at my favorite inclusive pub (APD Safe Place Decal 🏳️‍🌈 was prominently displayed). I was just trying to be an open-minded, cultured global citizen and watch a soccer game match, only to find out that the entire sport is completely compromised. The announcer casually mentioned that Team USA was relying on their "right-wingers" to drive the ball down the line, and I nearly dropped my Fernet-Branca. How is this allowed? Why are we letting extreme political factions control the outer edges of the pitch? I thought sports were supposed to be a neutral ground, but instead, they are openly broadcasting tactical maneuvers from the far right on national television.

It gets even worse because when I looked into it, nobody else is even blinking an eye! My "safe place" is now Hitler's Wolf's Lair cheering on these brownshirts running around out there, completely unchecked, pushing their MAGA agenda down the flank while the "left-wingers" are forced to just stand on the completely opposite side of the field, totally divided. No wonder my Grindr date stood me up. The blatant partisanship is sickening, and I refuse to subject my family to this kind of systematic indoctrination masked as "the beautiful game." I am one and done. FIFA can keep their radicalized field positions because I am officially boycotted and will never watch a single game again.

The strikes follow a drone attack on a commercial vessel in the Strait of Hormuz and threatens to unwind the fragile ceasefire deal between Washington and Tehran.

https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/trump-says-iranian-attack-on-cargo-ship-was-violation-of-ceasefire-deal-884c617c?st=mmJnMo&reflink=article_copyURL_share

Donald Trump and JD Vance echo the anti-Israel Left. The vice president seems to be trying to curry favor with Tucker Carlson for a presidential campaign, writes Allysia Finley.

https://www.wsj.com/opinion/donald-trump-and-jd-vance-echo-the-anti-israel-left-63eb82b0

Let's be honest: I don't do lines. I know central Austin is going absolute beast mode today to prove to their Instagram followers that they’ve read How to Be an Antiracist.

To save me from my own total lack of patience, please drop the names of the top-tier, Black-owned restaurants and cafes currently being entirely suffocated by white guilt and 90-minute wait times. Where is the line wrapping around the block just so someone can tag themselves eating a sweet potato pie for equity? I love the excellence; I just hate the crowds. Help me bypass the performative gridlock.

And incase if you were wondering, I am def not racist. I still send memes of Wardy Joubert III to all my friends and family.

It's been almost a week since Robert Pape was last on BP to remind us he predicted this all and beg us to subscribe to his Substack. Anyone else feeling lost without his groundbreaking analysis of the recent peace deal developments? I need to know exactly where we are in the escalation trap.

Here's a good analysis of the current situation with Iran. I anticipate these will be almost the exact talking points K&S will use today (Krystal will also predictably bash Israel and Saagar will inevitably compare something to LBJ and remind us of depleted interceptors).

X post from former US bureaucrat, including US Ambassador to Israel, Dan Shapiro:

>Until the text of the US-Iran deal is signed and released, there is going to be a lot of spin on both sides. But here is my initial take.

>This war was a mistake, and it needs to end. The President thought that the Iranian regime would collapse quickly, but it did not. In fact, it has been strengthened strategically by its survival against a heavy US-Israeli assault and carrying out some effective counterstrikes. Many countries in the region are now courting Iran and looking to deescalate and rebuild ties. A sign of which way the wind is blowing.

>Getting the Strait of Hormuz open is the most important outcome of this MOU. Of course, the Strait was open before the war. Now we are paying to reopen it with sanctions relief. Iran has taken a theoretical point of leverage and turned it into a very real and powerful one, imposing costs across the global economy and rattling President Trump.

>As for the nuclear issues, there really is no agreement, other than to negotiate over the HEU stockpile and an enrichment moratorium. Iran knows how to drag out those negotiations, and try to pocket concessions along the way. It is possible that no deal will every be reached, and very likely that if one is reached, it will be worse than what we could have achieved through diplomacy before the war.

>Iran is not likely to take seriously that the US would return to war, certainly before the US midterms. So that means we will be conducting diplomacy without a credible threat of force.

>If any agreement ultimately reached actually safely puts Iran's nuclear ambitions out of reach, I'll acknowledge it. It's just too early to make that judgment.

>Trump is mainly focused on comparing his deal favorably to the JCPOA. But we are a long way from being able to make that comparison, and it may end up no better, or weaker than that deal.

>But in some ways, Trump's deal and the JCPOA are already similar. Nothing on ballistic missiles, nothing on proxies, nothing on weakening the regime or helping the Iranian people. And plenty of sanctions relief that will strengthen the regime, and be poured into the missile program and proxy network. Honest critics of the JCPOA will not twist themselves into pretzels to defend Trump's approach.

>Israelis are deeply disappointed in this outcome, but they should not be surprised. After some initial overlap of Trump's and Netanyahu's interests, there was a strong divergence. The United States needed this war to end. Netanyahu wanted to continue.

>Trump's claim to include Lebanon in the ceasefire and his harsh shutting down Israeli attacks on Hezbollah is also a win for Iran. After the JCPOA was signed, Obama and Netanyahu worked together to strengthen Israel's campaign of strikes in Syria to intercept Iranian weapons shipments to Hezbollah in Lebanon.

>So let's hope we see the removal of Iran's enriched uranium and a long-term suspension of enrichment, with full verification. But to achieve those goals, Trump's team is going to need to engage in far more sophisticated diplomacy, backed by qualified experts, than they have to date. If it is a phase one splash with no follow-up on implementation of later phases, like in Gaza, we will be much worse off after, and because of, this war.

Iran and the U.S. have agreed on a peace deal, the two nations announced Sunday, a major breakthrough after nearly four months of fighting that created global political and economic turmoil.

”Following intensive talks, we are pleased to announce that the Peace Deal between the United States of America and Islamic Republic of Iran has been REACHED,” said Shehbaz Sharif, the prime minister of lead mediator Pakistan. “Both sides have declared the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon.”

The official signing ceremony will be on Friday in Switzerland, Sharif said on his X social-media account.

https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/iran-threatens-to-pull-out-of-talks-after-israel-strikes-beiruts-outskirts-d0390e22?st=CGBySD&reflink=article_copyURL_share

https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/iran-threatens-to-pull-out-of-talks-after-israel-strikes-beiruts-outskirts-d0390e22?st=7okFvF&reflink=article_copyURL_share

On Tuesday's show, Krystal defended Sorsby by asking "do you think there should be some consideration made for people who genuinely have a problem?"

No, Krystal. We need firm, consistent, and authentic standards from peers and authority figures. We have gotten to the point where holding people to standards and having accountability is “too mean” or “not compassionate”. It’s been a decade or so through social media of pseudo-science regarding self care and mental health convincing people that the best way to handle mental health challenges is bulldoze any adversity or standards out of the way. It’s a shame. And here we are.

Would Krystal advocate for consideration to be made for people arrested for DUI who genuinely have a drinking problem?

Woke up this morning, pooped out a condom, and poured myself a cup of coffee after getting thrown out of my local watering hole for drinking 11 jellyfishes. I opened up Grindr, and the first guy I connected with wouldn't stop referring to his pee pee as a screwworm.

Awful, right? Not a great start. But my spirits brightened with the next connection: an 80-year-old drag queen in Round Rock. I was like, hell yeah, cool! We started chatting, but he was so mean. More than half of his comments were rude and weird, mostly because he hadn't even fought in the Civil War like I hoped.

Anyway, I deleted Grindr (again). I beseech you, Austin Reddit—what's good? Surely it's not all a "Karmelo is innocent," "Elon is a Nazi," "I love Iran," "I want to deploy to Ukraine but my mom won't sign the waiver" AI hellscape out there.

I'll go first: I got blacked out last night and got a Nazi tattoo just like Graham Platner's.

My wife's boyfriend dumped his three kids off this morning so he can go to Vegas for a boys trip (he didnt ask but I told him I couldnt make it). I am still digesting the injustice Karmelo is experiencing and I know my fellow austinites are literally shaking in unison. Does anyone know where there are completely organic protests demanding Karmelo be released?

In a 215-208 vote, the GOP-led House passed a war-powers resolution restricting President Trump’s ability to continue the ongoing conflict with Iran without explicit congressional approval, signaling eroding Republican support for the war amid rising fuel prices and sagging poll numbers. Joined by four dissenting Republicans, the united Democratic majority approved the measure—which requires the president to halt military hostilities against Iran unless acting to defend against an imminent attack—though it faces steep procedural hurdles and lacks the supermajority needed to override a certain presidential veto. Despite condemnation from House Speaker Mike Johnson and warnings that the move undermines U.S. negotiating leverage, the vote marks a significant symbolic rebuke for the White House, arriving alongside additional legislative setbacks for Trump, including separate bipartisan House momentum to fund Ukraine aid despite his opposition.

https://www.wsj.com/politics/gop-led-house-votes-to-limit-trumps-iran-war-powers-3d9d0fac

The Trump administration has officially abandoned a proposed $1.8 billion "anti-weaponization" fund following widespread bipartisan condemnation and pressure from Republican lawmakers. Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche confirmed the cancellation, which removes a major roadblock for a separate $70 billion immigration-enforcement package that had been stalled in Congress.

https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/gop-leaders-expect-trump-to-kill-anti-weaponization-fund-b3b94da8