Sanity check on FIRE plan for late 2030s
Hi guys – I've been a long-time FIRE advocate but casually, whereas now I'm taking it more seriously.
I'm in my mid 30s and live with my wife and one child.
- We own our apartment and pay a mortgage of 2,500e per month.
- We spend another 2,500e monthly on core expenses including Hausgeld, all bills, groceries, eating out, etc.
- We "pay each other" 750e per month for personal spending.
- We budget 1,000e per month for travel / one-off or unexpected expenses.
This means our annual expenses is approx. 90,000e. We're high earners and can still invest 3-4,000e per month in ETFs. We already have 400,000 invested.
I've done the calculations multiple times and I keep getting the same answer. Depending on future returns, we could fully FIRE with 1.3m (in today's money) in 2036-2038 adjusted for inflation if I consider the following:
- Our mortgage is paid off in 2050 reducing our annual spend by ~30,000e per year (assuming rates are similar in the future, I have to make some assumptions).
- To be conservative, I'll assume we both receive 1,000e state pension from late 60s (even though it will likely be more). This also gives us 24,000e additional income per year.
Assuming a real return of 6% (inflation adjusted), am I thinking about this in the right way? I haven't factored in health insurance but my understanding is we'd pay the statutory minimum (we're both publicly insured).
I'm looking for a sanity check as I assume I've messed up something. I understand a real return of 6% is not guaranteed. I've also done calculations for a 4.5% return and it pushes FIRE out by 2-3 years, which is fine.