Patch 26.11 Smolder and botlane hypocrisy.
I'll be the first to point out how comically broken Smolder is. But let's not pretend Brand isn't next up in power level. I won't even mention the other plethora of mages on this list. Brand's pick rate is extremely high for a mage "Marksman," and yet he hasn't been touched. Next patch, when DFT's vile interaction with BC is gutted, where will smolder be, considering the nerf to both DFT and Smolder himself?
I've seen the upcoming changes for Smolder, pushing him toward Crit. And while once ER + IE core is complete, you technically have more damage, the nerf to his early game is extreme. Not to mention any non crit item is actively punished. This means no way of obtaining bulk in a meta filled with assassins like we've rarely seen before. Of course, you can go shieldbow, and the Talon/Zed/Etc can just go Serpents.
Below are the three item winrates. Notice how the last one, without cleaver, sits at 52.6%? It may seem high, but please note that this is the WR when three items are achieved, which, in 99% of cases, means smolder has stacked completely. It also contains Hubris, which is built when one has a lead.
As an advocate for playing scalers in Soloq, and staying as far away as possible from "beat down" picks, I don't see a reason to pick Smolder over Jinx, Aphelios, Zeri, or even Vayne (in some scenarios) next patch. Which sucks, because he's my favorite adc these days.
Of course, we won't know how things will end up until we see the whole patch, but I'm not hopeful.
Let me here your thoughts, if you would.