WEATHER MEGATHREAD UPDATE: Invest 90E / New Tropical Threat to Hawaiʻi
Last Updated: August 19, 2026
Hawaiʻi is now monitoring another developing tropical system, currently designated Invest 90E, east-southeast of the islands.
This is a different system from Lala.
The National Hurricane Center currently gives Invest 90E a 90% chance of developing into a tropical depression or tropical storm within both the next 48 hours and the next 7 days.
At this point, formation appears likely. What remains much less certain is exactly how strong the system will become and how close it will pass to Hawaiʻi.
What We Know Right Now
Invest 90E is moving generally westward toward the Central Pacific and is expected to organize further over the next day or so.
Current guidance generally brings the developing system toward the vicinity of Hawaiʻi this weekend.
The National Weather Service in Honolulu says forecast ensembles currently show a general preference for a track similar to Lala or possibly somewhat farther south, but emphasizes that it is still too early to forecast an exact path.
That uncertainty is important.
A relatively small shift in track could make a significant difference in rainfall, wind, surf and flooding impacts on individual islands.
When Could Hawaiʻi Be Affected?
The earliest fringe effects could begin reaching the Big Island on Saturday, with the more significant period currently looking like Sunday into Monday.
The Big Island would likely encounter effects first because the system is approaching from the east-southeast.
Maui County, Oʻahu and Kauaʻi could potentially see impacts afterward depending on the eventual track and size of the storm.
It is too early to say that any particular island will or will not experience significant impacts.
The Biggest Concern Right Now: Rain
Even if the center of the eventual storm remains south of Hawaiʻi, tropical moisture associated with the system could still move across portions of the state.
The National Weather Service has already increased precipitation chances for Sunday and Monday because of the developing system.
Potential impacts include:
- Heavy tropical rainfall
- Flash flooding
- Landslides and rockfalls
- Strong or gusty winds
- Dangerous surf
- Rough ocean conditions
- Coastal flooding
- Additional power outages
This is especially worth watching because some areas are still recovering from Lala, including infrastructure and power systems.
No Tropical Watches or Warnings Yet
As of this update, the National Weather Service Honolulu has no tropical watches or warnings in effect for Hawaiʻi.
That is completely normal at this stage.
The system has not yet developed into a tropical cyclone, and forecast uncertainty remains high.
If development continues as expected, official tropical cyclone advisories and a forecast cone should become available once the system becomes a tropical depression or tropical storm.
Those forecasts will give us considerably better information than individual model runs currently circulating online.
If You Are Traveling This Weekend
If you are arriving, departing or traveling between islands Saturday through Monday, this is now something you should monitor closely.
However, this is not currently a reason by itself to cancel a Hawaiʻi trip.
There is still significant uncertainty regarding the storm's eventual track, intensity and impacts.
Travelers should:
- Monitor the National Hurricane Center / Central Pacific Hurricane Center.
- Check National Weather Service Honolulu forecasts.
- Watch airline notifications.
- Check directly with hotels and vacation rentals.
- Keep an eye on tours and ocean activities, which may cancel earlier than flights or hotels.
- Avoid making decisions based on a single weather model or social-media forecast.
Forecast confidence should improve significantly once Invest 90E develops a defined circulation and official tropical cyclone advisories begin.
A Note About Forecast Models
You may see model graphics over the next few days showing everything from a hurricane approaching Hawaiʻi to a storm passing safely south of the islands.
Do not treat individual model runs as forecasts.
The National Weather Service specifically notes that while models presently show some agreement on a track resembling Lala or somewhat farther south, it is still too early to determine the exact path.
We will put much more weight on the official NHC/CPHC forecast once the storm forms.
ALL INVEST 90E QUESTIONS GO IN THIS THREAD
Please continue using this megathread for questions including:
- "Should I cancel my trip?"
- "Will Maui be affected?"
- "I'm flying Sunday. Should I change my flight?"
- "Will the Road to Hana be open?"
- "Will my snorkeling tour operate?"
- "Will Waikīkī get hit?"
- "Should we leave early?"
- "What island will have the best weather?"
Separate posts about Invest 90E and its potential effect on individual vacations will be removed.
Please also do not take visitor-specific travel questions to r/Hawaii. Use this thread instead.
Current Bottom Line
Invest 90E is now a legitimate system to watch.
Development into a tropical depression or tropical storm is considered highly likely.
There is a realistic possibility of impacts in Hawaiʻi beginning this weekend, particularly Saturday through Monday, but the severity and exact location of those impacts remain uncertain.
For now:
Monitor, prepare for possible travel disruptions, but don't panic or make decisions based on speculative model runs.
We will update this thread again as soon as the system develops and the National Hurricane Center begins issuing official track and intensity forecasts.