u/swagadagg

The technology of the future is always the art of the possible. With food it becomes, rather subtley, the art of making the inevitable manufacturable and this is especially true with precision fermentation. But er, what is it: Precision fermentation is the use of engineered microorganisms to produce specific proteins or ingredients, like dairy or egg proteins, cosmetics and beyond but without using animals.

This afternoon’s AMA with the globes en primeur investor in cellular agriculture, Jim Mellon, lands at a moment when the technology of precision fermentation is now about to be realised in the factory. Public markets, including Mellon’s Agronomics Limited, have marked the sector down since 2022, but the capital has not vanished (it very nearly did though, it has concentrated. ANIC portfolio companies have now raised over $2bn cumulatively, with roughly $300m plus flowing through 2025 into 2026 even as broader venture slowed, and Mellon’s core claim, implicit if not shouted, is that this is not retreat but selection, fewer bets, larger cheques, closer to steel.

The timeline now is not scientific but industrial. Between now and late 2026 the constraint is capacity, not proof. Facilities tied to companies like Liberation Bioindustries and Clean Food Group move from pilot to early commercial throughput, which is to say actual revenue rather than samples. The first cost parity events are not dramatic, they sit in whey, casein, and specific fats rather than whole cuts, and they arrive unevenly through 2026 as fermentation scale and input costs stabilise. Meanwhile ingredient platforms such as Perfect Day, Formo and Remilk continue to push into supply chains rather than shelves, so the visible event horizon will likely be quiet reformulation deals with incumbents like Nestlé and Unilever rather than any theatrical supermarket debut. Dohler for example are well and truly in.

What changes over the next twelve months is therefore measurable. Capital already deployed begins to convert into litres, contracts, and margins. Venture shifts from narrative to unit economics, asking not whether proteins can be made but at what cost per kilo, per hour, per tank. If even a handful of Mellon backed companies demonstrate stable output and repeat B2B contracts by mid to late 2026, today’s valuations look like a timing error; if they slip again, the market’s scepticism calcifies. Mellon’s wager, and the point of engaging in the AMA, is that biology has already conceded the argument and engineering is about to catch up. In a world where technology is recognised via marketing food tech and precision fermentation is entirely under the radar. So ask your questions. I have no idea if a link is up yet and not sure if it is cricket to share in here. It is at 3pm, Im 90% sure of that.

There’s been a quiet shift in cellular agriculture over the last 12–18 months. The narrative used to be “when will this scale?” Now it’s becoming “which pathways actually survive contact with reality?”

Over the past six months, especially in the lab meat field (or bioreactor) there have been some missteps. Meatable and Believer (the latter basically factory ready) have folded. Bans in Republican US states on lab meat backed by a feeling and the beef lobby remain. Lab meat of course is not the whole story. In this short letter I’ll think through the companies and sectors within cellular agriculture that are closest to scaling commercially.

Also note on 3 May Jim Mellon of Agronomics will be doing an AMA on reddit. No idea how or if i can link that in here. In any case, on to the thought.

Cultivated meat (growing whole tissue from cells) is now in a capital squeeze. The science works, but scaling it is proving brutally expensive. Upside Foods has raised $600m+ and built pilot-scale production in California, while Mosa Meat has raised $120m+ euros and continues to iterate on cost reduction. That is the first clear signal that this is no longer a science race but a balance sheet one. Expect the next teo to be a survival window for a number of companies, with restaurant pilots and very limited scale, and perhaps by 2032 there will be a clear identity to the market. Probably the most likely lab meat companies to scale in the early stage will be pet food companies. People are less squeamish and more receptive of the benefits, watch Meatly and Bond Pet Foods as early frontrunners for scale.

Aside from the challenges in the US and EU on legislation there is an interesting shift outside of the big money beef lobbyists. Ranch farmers have reacted to the ban saying that it undermines free trade in the US. In the Nederlands, Mosa Meat, Aleph Farms, Kipster and Multus have combined to set up a collaboration with a farm calling the conglomerate Respect Farms.

Precision fermentation (using microbes to produce specific proteins like whey or egg) is materially ahead. Perfect Day has raised $800m+ and already commercialised ingredients, while Formo has raised over €135m including a €35m EIB loan in 2025. EVERY Company has taken a similar B2B route. This sector is building real capacity now, not just pilots. The next two will likely start to produce scale and we will see companies embedding into existing food supply chains. Clean Food Group who have a ready to go factory currently producing and phasing up scale produce oils and notably palm oil are very much on the path to outstrip the competition. By the early 2030s, it is likely to be an invisible but widespread layer in processed food.

Hybrid products (combining cultivated or fermented inputs with plant bases) are emerging as the pragmatic middle ground. They reduce cost while improving taste and texture, and they fit more easily into current regulatory frameworks. You will likely see these reach retail scale before pure cultivated meat, simply because the economics work sooner.

Infrastructure (bioreactors, media, manufacturing capacity) is where capital is quietly concentrating. Liberation Bioindustries raised $50.5m in 2025 to build commercial fermentation facilities in Indiana, reflecting a broader shift. The bottleneck is no longer whether proteins can be made, but whether they can be made cheaply and at volume. Whoever owns capacity controls the pace of the industry. The Liberation factory will open possibly early next year.

Pulling this together, the timelines are no longer aligned. Precision fermentation is scaling now. Hybrid products likely follow into retail this decade. Cultivated meat faces a narrowing path and will either break through in the early 2030s or settle into a premium niche.

The early framing was that cellular agriculture would disrupt food quickly. The more accurate framing now is slower and less romantic. The path to commercialisation is being formed but who will lead the charge to commercialisation is a little less clear.

Precisions fermentation has existed since the 70s, its application extends beyond food and likely reaction will be less explosive as it is in lab meat.

It is a fascinating story and one which we are watching unfold and will add a depth to our food systems which will be unprecedented. As mentioned earlier, Jim Mellon’s AMA on the 3 May is a good place to ask your questions on the sector.