What could the first 3 years of COMP360 sales look like?
Compass has posted roughly 100 U.S. Therapeutic Sales Specialist roles ahead of the COMP360 launch.
Rather than guessing peak sales, here’s a simplified bottom-up model based on what those 100 reps could actually produce.
First, the revenue assumption
Assume the total cost to the payer is ~$7,000–10,000 per treatment, including the drug, preparation, 6–8 hour administration/monitoring, facility costs and follow-up.
For this model, assume only ~$3,500 of that is net drug revenue to CMPS per patient. The rest goes to clinics/providers and other costs.
Assume a deliberately slow launch
Rather than assuming every sales rep immediately opens one productive account per month, assume each of the ~100 reps averages only: ~0.5 new productive centers per month
That would roughly mean:
Month 1: 50 active centers
Month 3: 150
Month 6: 300
Month 12: 600
Then assume utilization also starts slowly as reimbursement, referrals and clinic workflows get established.
An established center might eventually reach 6–8 patients/month, but during Year 1 the average newly activated center could be much lower.
A hypothetical patient ramp:
Month 1: 300 patients → $1.1M
Month 2: 600 → $2.1M
Month 3: 1,000 → $3.5M
Month 4: 1,500 → $5.3M
Month 5: 2,000 → $7.0M
Month 6: 2,500 → $8.8M
Month 7: 3,000 → $10.5M
Month 8: 3,500 → $12.3M
Month 9: 4,000 → $14.0M
Month 10: 4,500 → $15.8M
Month 11: 5,500 → $19.3M
Month 12: 7,000 → $24.5M
Year 1 total: ~35,400 patients
At $3,500 net revenue per patient:
~$124M first-year COMP360 revenue
What’s interesting is that this doesn’t require a particularly strong launch.
By Month 12:
~600 productive centers
~7,000 monthly patients
= roughly 12 patients/center/month or about 2.7 patients per clinic per week.
And because most of those centers weren’t operating for the full year, Year 1 revenue substantially understates the exit run rate.
Month 12 revenue of ~$24.5M implies:
~$294M annualized revenue entering Year 2
So even a relatively slow first-year launch could look something like:
Year 1: ~$125M revenue
Year 2: ~$350–500M
Year 3: ~$750M–$1B+
The two metrics I’m keen to watch after launch are:
1. Productive centers activated per sales rep per month
2. Patients treated per productive center per month
With ~100 reps, even averaging only one new productive account every two months per rep builds a network of ~600 centers in the first year.
If those centers eventually treat just 2–3 COMP360 patients per week, you can get surprisingly close to a ~$125M first-year launch while setting up a much larger Year 2.
Not a forecast — just a deliberately slower bottom-up scenario based on the commercial organization Compass appears to be building.