u/user4443337

I was talking to Gemini about negative carry, and it was saying that NTSX has half of the risk of negative carry - it borrows about half less. It would protect against inverted yield. Plus, NTSX’s expense ratio (0.2) is half of RSSB (0.39). However, I am a fan that RSSB is close to VT whilst NTSX is just SPY. It also has 10% more equities which is compelling.

But for a long term horizon, less leverage (1.5x) feels safer than 2x. I want to preserve wealth, I don’t necessarily want to have an aggressive allocation.

Right now I’m 20% GDE but I want to split that in half for NTSX or RSSB. I’m having anxiety about gold as an asset class; it’s nonproductive. What if it stays flat for another 25 years? The bonds feel more “guaranteed” to me.

Which would you choose for a 35 year time horizon? I’m leaning toward NTSX, to have less risk of negative carry, less leverage, and less of an expense ratio.

Although it does say 0.45% at the top of the page, everywhere else it says 0.20%. The 30d median bid ask spread is currently 0.28%, but this is insanely cheap. A lot of their other 2x ETFs are 0.45%.

Either way, so much cheaper than WLDU - which also has very low AUM. Not sure if this is a promotional thing.

2x VUG is interesting, I wonder when we will see 2x small cap value and the like.

Seems like they have some pretty competitive products and pricing!

Finally got to see my trust’s portfolio. It’s 57% equities, but the equity sleeve is just horrible! It’s only ~40 stocks, and 9 mostly active/concentrated ETFs. The blended expense ratio looking at just the mutual funds and ETFs is around ~0.60%. Its equity portion is only 15% international, and 5% of the sleeve is emerging markets. In VT, it should be ~40% international and 10.3% of that emerging markets.

I’m losing tens of thousands to expensive active mutual funds and ETFs. How do I approach my family trustee and the managers to just use something like VT? I want to say it in a clear and convincing manner. I want to send a short explanation to the trustee and tell him to demand we switch to VT because it’s outperformed on a 5 year basis already, it’s simpler, more diversified, and not betting so heavily on AI and tech.

If I had it my way I would want it to copy my exact portfolio, which uses return stacking and 20% small cap value. I’m 23 so research backs me up in using those. I think I’d have a hard time convincing both of them to use niche products like NTSD though, which is the core of mine.

NTSD - 48.41%
GDE - 21.53%
AVUV (DFSVX as proxy) - 10.16%
AVDV (DISVX as proxy) - 9.97%
AVEM (DFEVX as proxy) - 9.93%

NTSD and GDE perform very well in backtests. From 1969, NTSDSIM has a 11.96% CAGR. GDESIM has an astounding 14.53% CAGR. So if I could test even further back, the CAGR may be even higher than just 11.18%. My target for financial goals is 10%, which I feel is a reasonable target.

I would also expect the Avantis funds to do even better than the Dimensional mutual funds, all 3 have lower expense ratios. I see pretty much all of Avantis funds outperform their Dimensional counterparts.

My real portfolio is practically the same but with 2% BBCA to include Canada exposure - attempting to be close to global market cap weights. That wouldn’t affect this much.

I just started investing 7-8 months ago and feel confident in this strategy - the issue will be refraining from chasing tech or more leverage; to stick with it for 30 years. I often feel like adding ROM or VGT or SMH, something performance-chase-y. Before I found NTSD, my core was an un-levered DFUS + DFAX. This still feels relatively conservative.

On /r/LETFS there’s a ton of strategies. Managed futures, treasuries, 200D SMA, TQQQ. I feel like this is simple, 1.4-1.5x leverage, VT + 20% small caps + ~17% gold. We’ll just have to see if small caps and gold don’t perform the same as backtests, but if they do, I hope the leverage will supplement it. I will always be close to VT no matter what.

I’ve been trying to build a spreadsheet with Claude, Gemini, but it’s always finicky. Between so many ETFs, buy dates, and even some sells it is a lot for the AIs to even track.

I want to just upload a csv of all my ETF buy and sell history and then tell me how I’m performing against VT/VOO. Fidelity data is pretty good but not the full picture - doesn’t combine my Roth and brokerage account MWR or TWR.

If someone could build a functional app or tool for this that would be awesome.

I have a decent spreadsheet built from Claude but I don’t know if it’s fully complete or accurate. It might even be easier to just build it manually at this point - it’s shocking how complicated it is for them.