u/value-growth-guy

The bars show the projected profit on $1,000 invested in each stock.

Nominal public debt has exploded since 2000: US +380%, Japan +430%, China +650%. Debt-to-GDP is already ugly: Japan 200%+, US heading toward 125–140%, France heading well above 120%, China crossing 100%. Global government debt is $111 trillion and growing every day. Interest spending is becoming a huge issue for these countries.

The path is unsustainable. Aging, slower productivity, and higher real rates make the math even worse.

There are only a few ways out:

1. Grow faster than interest spending and fiscal deficit. The cleanest option, but hard in aging, high-regulation, high-tax societies.

2. Run primary surpluses. Spend less than you tax, politically the hardest.

3. Inflate it away. Keep rates below inflation and force savers to hold the bonds. It destroys both wealth and the currency.

4. Default or restructure. Very costly for everyone, destroys trust.

5. Pretend and extend. The current path. Works until it doesn’t, then the adjustment is even more painful.

There is no painless option, but delay only shifts a larger bill onto the young. How will we get out of this mess?

Scaryyyy....

$ADBE revenue per employee is at a historically high level.

Analyst price target: $269.
Earnings per share are still growing.
Yet almost no one wants to buy the stock.

Why?

Mainly because of the AI threat.

So the real question is: what does the future look like for a company like Adobe in an AI-first world?

U.S and China are the most present in the AI race. who will win?

That creates an interesting debate around the SpaceX and Starlink investment thesis.

Revenue continues to grow as Starlink expands globally, launches more satellites, and increases its presence across residential broadband, aviation, maritime connectivity, government contracts, and defense.

But subscriber growth matters.

Starlink needs to keep adding customers at a strong pace to justify SpaceX’s valuation, fund its satellite infrastructure, and support long-term revenue growth.

So what matters more to you:

Strong revenue growth, or the subscriber miss?

Are you buying SpaceX stock at the current valuation, or waiting for a better entry price?

Are you still buying Oracle?

I’m avoiding Oracle and Meta for now. I still believe in the others.