u/wkgui

Thursday's tape priced a monopoly ending. Exclusivity already went in July 2025 when VantageScore got GSE approval. April cut the mortgage pull to $0.99 plus $65 a funded loan, so that lever's spent. What changed is a ~50-lender pilot becoming every lender. Permission isn't displacement. The test is still VantageScore as the primary pull on more than 10% of conforming files by FY2028.

https://www.investmoat.com/research/fico-the-mandate-was-already-priced

I don't own Meta.

Meta spent $31.1B in Q2 and printed $784M of free cash flow. Stock fell about 8.6% the next day. That’s the print people marked. They also split the ad line. Impressions +14%, down from +19% in Q1. Price per ad +12%, second quarter in a row. Daily users only +3%. Ad revenue still +27% to $59.4B. The extra money is coming from charging more per ad, not from finding more people.

Full-year capex is $130–145B against $72.2B last year and they didn’t guide 2027. In a business where users grow 3%, that spend only shows up if they can keep charging as impressions slow. Two quarters of +12% is not a payback. What would break it: price per ad under 8% for two quarters, impressions already in single digits. Then they bought reach they can’t charge for. Could also just be a tighter auction. They don’t publish ROAS, so I can’t split a smarter match from scarcer inventory yet. Did the $31B buy a better ad, or more of them?

https://www.investmoat.com/research/metas-capex-has-one-receipt

I noticed the nuclear tape still prices Cameco, Kazatomprom, NexGen, and Uranium Energy as one uranium-spot trade. I don't think they are.

Cameco is already contracted for more than 28 million pounds a year through 2030. Q2 realized US$67.79/lb against US$85.18 spot. That's old ceilings, not a scarcity premium. KAP realized $66.61 the same quarter. Similar price, no Western lock-in.

NexGen has 10 million pounds of offtake against up to 30 million pounds a year of nameplate. UEC sold nothing in Q3 FY26 on purpose.

The sort is whether a name is already inside a utility fuel plan, or still a call on the pound. Realized price this quarter does not settle it. Both producers are lagging spot.

https://www.investmoat.com/research/cameco-and-the-uranium-beta-trade

Mine. Not advice. Is Cameco in that basket because of the realized price, or are NXE and UEC the actual spot trade?

Entry was March 6, 2026, which felt awful at the time. March turned out to be the S&P’s worst month since 2022 and I was down roughly 6% within three weeks as the Iran situation escalated.

Where it stands today:
• Portfolio: about +11%
• S&P 500: +9.9%

So about a point of alpha. Which is basically noise.

Things I’ll own:
• 20 concentrated names with heavy AI and semi overlap earned me index returns with a lot more single name risk. That is not a win.
• The 6% BTC sleeve cost me around 0.8 points. It is down about 4% over the window.
• Timing flatters or wrecks any update like this. In early June the lead was obvious, with Nasdaq above 27,000 versus 25,138 today. Seven weeks of AI capex anxiety ate most of it.

Not selling, not claiming genius, just posting the scoreboard.

Numbers are approximate, estimated from index moves rather than calculated position by position. Not advice.

Any feedbacks would be highly appreciated 🙏
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