u/xairos13

Need idea to print my jersey.
I don’t want to print my real name.
But wanna print something humourous and dark like this one.

Saltillo had a mean Father’s Day cap, and the swag at the SdF was a little underwhelming, but still good stuff this season/last season but not really any throwbacks. Great displays, though. Heads up, all in Spanish. Even if your Spanish isn’t great, it’s worth checking out. A spiritual experience for any fan of baseball. The last picture really nails it: “For those who baseball is for is like water for life”

I started with the idea of valuing early-stage players like venture capital -- high risk, high yield. But limited amateur data made it hard to connect the dots on player "income statements."
Then I realized: even newer pros have years of metrics that oscillate with every game, backed by
years of data points. They get slumpy, they get streaky, and by producing runs, they pay dividends.

Volatility? Dividends?

Players sounded like shares of stock. So I built a Black-Scholes model to price them like one.
xwOBA is the stock price, wRC+ (runs created) is the dividend. Game to game values across 4 years
of data is volatility. The last game of the season is the strike date.

The model asks: what's the probability this player finishes above league average? BUY/HOLD/SELL
signals backed by their previous production.
It doesn’t explain age, injury, or choices in October. But it answers the question: given the evidence,
what's this player's stock worth?

What’s next? Maybe stock price vs. contract value? Pricing a player’s market cap based on contract
years remaining and current stock price? Pitchers as bonds?