List of potential Q4 news items and catalysts
We all feel bad about the current share price. But lets not forget that we know why its happening. The market is reacting to the delay, and people are temporarily moving their money elsewhere while waiting for news to rebuild trust in the timeline being accurate. If NOAA's timeline is even close to accurate, TMC is still getting their permit in time to start Hidden Gem commissioning Q4 2027, and start production Q1 2028.
The permit delay doesn't affect that since AllSeas has said they're already started work on the long lead time items. The permit delays affect short term confidence, but not the medium term path or production timeline, even with some small additional government delays.
Now, the promised list:
- Hidden Gem application to reflag (was supposedly due end of Q3 - probably won't get a PR, and might have slipped. Likely update on Nov earnings call if anything)
- Nov earnings call?: AllSeas updates on contracts being awarded for long lead time items
- Oct 7th: Brownsville board meeting to approve working with TMC (minutes won't be published for a few weeks)
- Oct 13th: USA-A permit public hearing (and likely Greenpeace hit pieces will come out around this time - has potential to be a negative catalyst)
- Oct 13th: TMC to attend 121 Mining Investment event - might find some new funds to invest before the permit Certification which could lead to a bump
- Oct 19th: USA-A comments close
- Oct ??? : USA-A expected Certification
- Nov/Dec : Ideally get the Federal Register posting for NOAA starting the main USA-A permit Draft EIS
- Dec : Possibility of NOAA finishing USA-B Exploration permit Draft EIS (180 day deadline from Aug 17th - so might be Q1 instead since NOAA is understaffed)
- Q4?? : Brownsville BFS released
- Nov/Dec: Eco Minerals exploration work in CCZ, hopefully to increase PFS area
- Q4??: Theoretically could get government funding for the Brownsville Refinery (but I see this as more likely in H1 2027 based off past earnings call comments)