u/ykar648

Banknifty futures: BN again underperformed the broader index. This is after leading the charge for a while. Story of 3 months for BN- an 8000 point fall; an 8000 point recovery- then a 5500 point fall and then a 6000 points recovery- which is where we are now. That’s all. ICICI & HDFC supported the index while Axis, SBI & Kotak dragged. ICICI is also said to be looking at its first USD debt sale in a while following HDFC & Axis. Buy on dips- resistance at 58887; support at 58037 & 57650- latter being key.

Nifty futures: gapped up above the key pivot at 24300; and despite some profit booking, managed to close above it at 24352; From a sectoral perspective, the market was lifted by spectacular performances in the Nifty Metal (+1.8%) and Nifty Cement (+1.7%) sectors, closely supported by IT. On the flip side, the session proved challenging for banking and automotive spaces- which saw some profits being booked. Buy on dips; above 24300- target of 24638; below 24300- support at 23996-21 WMA. And then 23870;

Nifty: the index gapped up and finally did the elusive target of 24344 on Friday. But could not hold onto the gains or to 24344; finally closed 24270, 0.40% up; market was primarily supported by strong buying in IT and metal stocks. Top gainers on the Nifty included HCL Tech, Hindalco. India VIX cooled down by another 3.98% to settle at 11.80. 11 off 16 sectors closed at weekly gains. Slow but steady broadcasting. Buy on dips. Resistances at 24344 & then at 24561; support at 23900

USDJPY: 160.57 held as the dip was bought into. In the meantime, the Japanese 10y bond yield is again testing its recent 30y highs. Traders are actively testing the Ministry of Finance's resolve, with institutional speculation rising. Markets are pricing in a 60% probability of another BoJ rate hike by October. Takaichi's administration is actively signally something else. Ueda should soon be back in action. How to trade the pair- very tactically- buy at 160.57; stop at 160.30; target- 161.94 OR sell at 161.94 stop at 162.35; target of 160.57

GBPUSD: cable once again found rejection at the 1.3368 pivot. UK 10-year Gilt yields held elevated as financial markets currently price a roughly 75% probability of a single quarter-point rate hike this year, despite easing energy prices. Especially with BoE Guv Bailey firmly dispelling any hint of Dovishness. UK is perhaps the only country in the world which can say that there is no political uncertainty despite there being no incumbent PM. For the pair, the key pivot is 1.3368- a good close above opens up a buy on dips theme. Resistances at 1.3393 & 1.3450 there on. Support at 1.3326; construction PMI & BoEs Mann speaking today.

DXY: the USD recovered a bit on a day which had lesser trading volumes on account of the US holiday on Friday. US yields had bucked the trend on Thursday remaining unchanged. Let’s see how they react today. Fed hike expectations which had gone up ridiculously high have been pared quite a bit. Today we have the S&P services PMI & ISM PMI data and other nos. Will be interesting. The DXY remains a buy on dips. Resistances at 100.90 and then 101.41; support at 100.47- a key pivot. Momentum not supporting the trade for now though.

Banknifty futures: BN had a rather lacklustre day in the end. finishing practically flat with a minor 0.07% gain to settle at 58,311.In terms of structural momentum, the biggest drivers providing positive traction were the Public Sector Undertaking (PSU) banking stocks, which rode on institutional buying tailwinds. SBI and Kotak performed well, while HDFC bank dragged. Buy on dips. Next target is 58887; supports at 58037 & then the pivot at 57650;

Nifty futures: buy on dips working well. A small gap up and then a sustained move up finishing 0.72% higher at 24,265. intraday high of 24,278 and an intraday low of 24,145. Sectorally, the index was heavily propelled by the spectacular resurgence of the Nifty IT index, which surged nearly 5%to snap a painful four-day losing streak, while other growth pockets like Auto, Realty, and Metal also registered solid gains of over 1% each. Conversely, Capital Goods, Power, Telecom, and PSU Banks did poorly. Buy on dips. The target of 24300- which has been elusive is close by now. A break of 24300 opens up 24638; supports at 23918 & 23870

Nifty: buy on dips working very well with the index closing at 24,175.70 for a gain of 0.71%. The index opened at 24,062.20, hit an intraday low of 24,058.80, and peaked at 24,194.55. The rally was driven by IT mostly. And then banks. The India VIX (fear gauge) dropped 7.18% to close at 12.29, indicating a decline in market anxiety. Infosys (+5.64%), Tech Mahindra (+4.61%), and Tata Consultancy Services (+4.42%) led the market. Buy on dips. Next target is 24344 and then 23561; 24344 however has been very elusive. Support at 23900

EURUSD: rose sharply after the US NFP after remaining bidding through the day. In the meantime euro is trading at a low against GBP in a while. Today we have the HCOB services PMI nos for Eurozone and for some of the larger economies. ECB President Lagarde also speaks today. Couple of days ago she had emphasized a meeting-by-meeting approach without forward guidance. Still a sell on rise- resistances at 1.1447 & 1.1483; support at 1.1388

DXY: fell sharply after the much lower than expected NFP; June payrolls came in at 57,000, falling short of the consensus estimate, while the unemployment rate edged down to 4.2%. other data in the report, suggests that the supply-side of the labor force was the primary driver for the miss in job creation. This should temper expectations of a Fed rate hike this year, a scenario that always appeared more aggressive than the Fed’s likely course. For now the index remains a buy on dips till we see a break of 100.47; resistance at 101.41; support at 100.89

Banknifty futures: Like I suggested yesterday, BN has been looking much better than the rest of the market; strong day. Opening flat and then finding its feet to close nearly 750 points up; both Nifty PSU Bank index (+0.99%) and the Nifty Private Bank index (+0.89%) did well. Individually, Kotak Mahindra Bank (surging 2.09% to ₹400.45) and State Bank of India (SBI) (climbing 2.00% to ₹1,047.40) dramatically outperformed. Buy on dips; next target is 58887; supports at 58037 & 57650

Nifty futures: July Futures staged a solid recovery yesterday; Sectorally, the market witnessed strong rotation. The Realty sector (+3.58%) and FMCG sector (+2.08%) did exceptionally well, emerging as the top outperforming pockets fueled by intense momentum accumulation. Conversely, the IT sector (-2.01%) and the Metal sector (-0.99%) did badly, facing severe profit-booking and dragging overall indices down. Buy on dips; target of 24300; support at 23870 & then 23814- 50 WMA

Nifty: Equities rebound after two consecutive sessions of losses, supported by positive global market trends. Nifty closed 140 points higher. Sectoral indices trade mixed with IT sector and metal sector witnessing selling pressure. Meanwhile, stocks in realty sector and auto sector witness buying. Financials and fast-moving consumer goods also advance firmly, outweighing weakness in tech and metal stocks. Buy on dips; next target is 24344; support at 23900 & then the 50 WMA- 23767; below this the support is at 23567

USDJPY: Wonder if there is a Japanese version of the ‘Boy who cried Tiger’ story; BoJ intervention is now the Damocles sword that hangs over markets, but traders continue to test BoJs resolve; the resistance at 162.71 held; so far. A break will open up a target of 164.60; The 10-year JGB yield spiked sharply to 2.72 moving up nearly 15 bps from its recent lows; tracking US yields one could say; the BoJ is in an unenviable position, for sure. Like I have said before- the technical trade is buy on dips. But the pair is overbought; a short with a tight stop and a deep target is the better risk reward trade. By the way, I have already given a lot of those stops.

GBPUSD: cable completely bucked the overall trend of USD strength to move up sharply; BoE’s Bailey back expectations of interest rate cuts, keeping the currency strong. Speaking in Sintra, Portugal, Bailey made it clear that any reductions to borrowing costs are currently "off the table". His statements were taken to be moderately hawkish and the pair responded. The BoE credit conditions survey today will be keenly watched; the pair remains a sell on rise; resistances at 1.3326 & then the pivot at 1.3368; support at 1.3265 & then the key 1.3150; the US NFP will be the catalyst for the pair today.

EURUSD: Eurozone CPI drops to 2.8% in June 2026, down from 3.2% in May and below market expectations of 3.0%. This marks the lowest rate since February. Manufacturing PMI declines to 51.4 in June 2026 from 51.6 in May, broadly aligning with the preliminary estimate of 51.3. The drop in CPI helped the sell on rise trade as the pair fell below the support at 1.1388; this gives the ECB a lot of space to hold on to rates and not hike into a stagflationary environment; sell on rise; resistances at 1.1388- 1.1447; support at 1.1310; needless to say the US NFP will be the big mover today.