r/Coin_Beacon

Bitcoin’s current bear cycle has already lasted more than 300 days. Counting from the October 2025 all-time high, we’re now around 315 days in.

There’s an interesting stat going around: if we take roughly one year as the average length of a Bitcoin bear market, about 86% of this cycle could already be behind us.

And the timing actually looks pretty similar to previous cycles. Major Bitcoin bear markets lasted roughly 321, 385 and 381 days.

Of course, Bitcoin doesn’t have to follow the same timeline again, and this doesn’t mean the bottom is already in. But based purely on time, we’re much closer to the late stage of the bear market than the beginning.

The amount of BTC supply sitting in profit has dropped to multi-year extreme lows, often associated with capitulation. But that doesn’t mean the bottom is already in.

Coinbase Premium Index shows institutional selling has continued for around 90 days, while SOPR suggests we still haven’t seen real mass capitulation from both short- and long-term holders at the same time.

So yes, BTC may be getting closer to a bottom, but there could still be room for one more move lower before it’s fully formed.

Trump spent much of Saturday posting images on social media showing the US maintaining what he called an “iron” blockade of Iran and portraying himself capturing Iranian oil tankers.

Today, the US reportedly conducted reconnaissance around an area in the Pacific where Iranian tankers are stationed.

Some experts believe this could be a sign that Washington is preparing for a much larger operation targeting Iranian oil tankers.