r/CollapseOfRussia

When you try to erase a sovereign nation but end up stranded on the M-4 highway with an empty tank. Drone strikes are causing massive shortages across the country, and locals are complaining that 'The Hunger Games continue.' Who knew imperialism would be so inconvenient?

Everything is going exactly according to plan! Just a slight, miles-long delay in the morning commute while Ukraine successfully redesigns the Russian oil industry. 11 out of 34 major refineries hit in August alone: guess those holiday road trips to Krasnodar will have to wait.

source: https://bsky.app/profile/antongerashchenko.bsky.social/post/3mtdmpuzaus2f

Police and the Swedish Coast Guard detained the bulk carrier Caffa off the country's southern coast in the Baltic Sea in March. The arrest was based on the fact that the vessel was sailing under a false flag, violating navigational safety laws, and the vessel itself, as it was unseaworthy due to its technical condition. The Swedish court upheld the detention of the vessel and ordered its transfer to Ukraine, where it is suspected of illegally transporting grain from occupied territories.

"The court confirmed that the seizure of the vessel Caffa… was lawful and that it can be transferred to Ukraine," prosecutor Hakan Larsson told Reuters. The owner of the bulk carrier, Caffa Shipping Limited, had previously contested the seizure. It now has three weeks to appeal, the prosecutor noted.

Ukraine is demanding the return of the vessel as part of an investigation into alleged war crimes related to the appropriation and removal of property from territories seized by Russia, the court ruled. It also found that such actions could constitute a war crime under Swedish law, paving the way for the transfer of the bulk carrier and related evidence to Ukrainian authorities.

Ukraine has repeatedly accused Russia of trading in seized grain and other agricultural products after occupying its lands. Subsequently, Russian companies that established themselves in these territories began buying them for next to nothing from the remaining local farmers, who had no other outlets. Russia also exported Ukrainian grain to other countries.

According to police, most of the Caffa's 11 crew members are Russian.

According to the ship tracking service MarineTraffic, the vessel was a 96-meter bulk carrier sailing under the Guinean flag. However, according to the court's ruling, the information about the vessel's ownership is false. It departed Casablanca in February and is currently in Trelleborg, Sweden.

As part of the fight against Russia's shadow fleet, Northern European countries announced in January their readiness to stop and inspect ships without nationality, i.e., those using false flags to conduct navigation.

source: The Moscow Times https://archive.is/95mTF

Moscow Credit Bank, which has close ties to Rosneft, has faced a growing wave of loan defaults, according to its financial statements published by banki.ru.

As of July, the bank—which ranks among the top 10 by assets and is designated as systemically important—had 14.8% of all outstanding loans in default, a rate five times higher than the banking system average. In total, customers failed to repay 277 billion rubles to MKB on time.

“MKB has a hole in its balance sheet,” write analysts at InvestFuture. According to the financial statements, the bank’s volume of non-performing loans increased by 1,716% over the past year. The first problems arose last summer: from August through December, the volume of “past-due” loans grew 11-fold—from 15 to 160 billion rubles. From January through July of this year, non-performing loans increased by another 1.7 times (+117 billion rubles).

Founded by billionaire Roman Avdeev, MKB came under the influence of Rosneft in 2017, when it found itself on the brink of bankruptcy along with other banks in the “Moscow Ring”—Otkritie Financial Corporation, Binbank, and Promsvyazbank. Rosneft effectively rescued the bank by injecting funds into its capital and placing long-term deposits maturing in 2066. The company also transferred reverse repo transactions worth hundreds of billions of rubles to MKB, which it used to finance its operations.

It is unclear exactly which entities failed to repay their loans to MKB in 2025. According to the Central Bank, in recent months, companies in the metallurgical and coal industries, as well as the construction and real estate sectors, have experienced debt difficulties—they requested that banks restructure loans they were unable to service.

According to a source for *Kommersant*, MKB’s problems were uncovered last year during a Central Bank audit, following which the bank’s management was replaced. In the summer of 2026, the bank’s majority shareholder also changed, though it is unknown who took over. Credit institutions currently have the right not to disclose the identities of their controlling beneficiaries.

According to the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, as of April 1, only 3.9% of loans issued by banks were “bad”—about 3.5 trillion rubles. However, the share of non-performing loans is three times higher—11.6%—and in monetary terms amounts to 11.2 trillion rubles—equivalent to two annual budgets of Moscow. This amount includes loans for which banks were forced to ease terms because borrowers were unable to keep up with payments.

Potential difficulties with debt servicing are even more likely for loans totaling 36 trillion rubles—which account for three-quarters of the total debt of the largest companies, according to the Central Bank’s assessment. Among the largest companies in critical condition are those in the coal and construction industries, as well as in trade and machine building, the Central Bank noted.

source: The Moscow Times https://archive.is/hxfJo

Kyrgyz authorities have forcibly liquidated 19 companies linked to the circumvention of EU and U.S. sanctions against Russia, according to Interfax. Since the end of June, approximately 40 legal entities posing heightened sanctions risks have been identified in the country, the Kyrgyz Ministry of Economy and Commerce reported. The decision was made at a meeting on sanctions chaired by Bakyt Sydykov, the Kyrgyz president’s special representative for special assignments. Representatives from government agencies, the National Bank, and commercial banks participated in the meeting. Based on the results of the analysis, the interagency group decided to suspend the operations of these companies to prevent negative consequences for the country resulting from sanctions evasion.

At the same time, the National Bank of Kyrgyzstan announced that it was strengthening oversight of banks, payment services, and other financial services. From July through August 14, 2026, the state-owned “Eldik Bank” terminated its relationships with 109 companies. Another 20 or so companies are in the process of having their accounts closed. The bank also continues to monitor customer payments to identify and block transactions related to sanctions evasion. Another state-owned bank, “A-Bank,” has terminated business relationships with approximately 35 companies. About 40 more companies are currently undergoing verification procedures. “Banks will continue to consistently strengthen compliance controls at all stages of transactions. Particular attention will be paid to in-depth verification of documents serving as the basis for payments, identifying the ultimate recipients of goods and services, and determining the destination countries for shipments,” the Ministry of Economy added.

The current campaign is a continuation of measures that Bishkek began implementing in the spring. In May, Kyrgyzstan’s Deputy Prime Minister Daniyar Amangeldiev announced the suspension of registration for 50 companies operating in wholesale trade, transportation, and logistics. Information about these companies was provided by the United States and the United Kingdom. “Once they report the risks, we review them and respond,” Amangeldiev said. On May 2, the deputy prime minister warned that a company’s registration could be revoked if its ties to sanction-evasion schemes were established.

Kyrgyzstan was the first among the former Soviet republics to fall under European sanctions for violating measures imposed against Russia. As part of the 20th sanctions package, the EU banned the export of European CNC machine tools and telecommunications equipment to Kyrgyzstan. Brussels explained the decision by citing the high risk of re-exporting these products to Russia. Certain Kyrgyz companies and financial institutions also fell under EU sanctions. Among them are Keremet Bank, Capital Bank of Central Asia, and the Grinex cryptocurrency exchange. The latter traded the ruble-pegged stablecoin A7A5, launched by Promsvyazbank and Moldovan businessman Ilan Shor. A7A5’s trading volume reached $100 billion.

source: The Moscow Times https://archive.is/Wv7ME

Russians began to look for gasoline cans en masse due to the second wave of the fuel crisis that hit the country. During the week from August 12 to 18, the number of relevant requests for Wildberries increased 4 times and exceeded 106 thousand. This follows from the internal data of the marketplace, which was studied by Vestka.

Russians have begun searching en masse for gasoline cans amid the second wave of the fuel crisis sweeping the country. During the week of August 12–18, the number of related searches on Wildberries quadrupled, exceeding 106,000. This is according to internal data from the marketplace, which was analyzed by “Versтка.” Search engine data also shows a rise in interest in fuel storage containers. According to Yandex statistics, between August 10 and 16, the number of searches for “gas can” reached 450,000, a 39% increase week-over-week. Russians searched for “gasoline canisters” 139,000 times, which is 71% more than in early August. Google recorded a similar trend.

Meanwhile, shoppers on online marketplaces began explaining in the comments why they need these canisters. “It’s a real lifesaver in the current situation—you don’t have to waste hours waiting in line at the gas station,” one of them noted. Some are also upset that sellers sometimes pass off canisters meant for food liquids as fuel containers. “It’s just a regular water canister.” "I didn't dare take it to Crimea," wrote a buyer under the product listing for 2,279 rubles titled "Gasoline Canister." "Intended for food products; there's a glass and fork symbol marked on the bottom," another user commented.

Russia is gripped by the second wave of the fuel crisis amid ongoing attacks by the Ukrainian Armed Forces (AFU) on oil refineries. In August alone, four large enterprises stopped operating as a result of attacks. As of August 16, gasoline and diesel were available only at 28.1% of gas stations in the country, according to data from the WhereBENZ application. On August 19, several networks introduced limits on fuel supply in Moscow. At the same time, Reuters sources previously reported that the authorities began to redirect gasoline to the capital from other regions.

Kommersant’s interlocutors in the fuel market noted that by the beginning of September the crisis could worsen, since one of the two refineries in Belarus, from which supplies to Russia, will stop for repairs. Planned repairs are also planned at several large Russian factories.

source: The Moscow Times https://archive.is/DParB

While President Vladimir Putin declares that there are no “critical” consequences for the economy due to the strikes of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, entrepreneurs are beginning to experience interruptions in the supply of necessary products. Employees of the well-known metropolitan network of city cafes “The Karavaev Brothers”, which have more than 70 locations throughout Moscow, told the publication "Post-" about problems with receiving goods after UAV attacks on a logistics hub in the Moscow region, which was completely burned out along with goods worth almost 80 billion rubles.

“We have warehouses near Podolsk in Koledino - right a couple of hundred meters from the Wildberries warehouses, and, as they say, we were also affected, so almost nothing has been delivered since the weekend. Supplies have been greatly reduced,” network workers said. According to them, this affected the purchase of both finished products and semi-finished products for the Karavaev Brothers, one of the largest fast casual and free flow catering chains in the country. The time frame for restoring supplies is not yet known. Judging by photographs from several cafes of the chain, some of the counters are indeed noticeably empty; first of all, the range of cooking and baked goods has been reduced.

Since 2023, the Karavaev Brothers canteen chain has been owned by the Neftmagistral fuel company, which owns more than 100 gas stations. Against the background of the “second wave” of the fuel crisis that has hit Russia, gasoline has recently begun to disappear at the company’s stations, despite a sharp increase in selling prices.

On Wednesday, Putin said at a meeting of the Presidential Council for Strategic Development that the drone strikes, which since the beginning of the year have disabled several dozen large Russian refineries, as well as ports and an entire network of huge Wildberries warehouses, have not brought any “critical consequences” to Russia.

source: The Moscow Times https://archive.is/AwV8N

• At least five grain ships have been attacked near the Russian Black Sea ports of Novorossiysk and Tuapse as Moscow struggles to continue exporting grain amid heightened Ukrainian strikes.
• The attacks are the first confirmations of grain vessels serving the affected Russian ports coming under fire, with Russia and Ukraine stepping up attacks on each other’s commercial ships and ports in the Black Sea area.
• The managers of the ships in question didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment, after drone attacks and strikes caused damage and disruption to the vessels, including a fire onboard one ship that left it unable to continue its voyage.

At least five grain ships have been attacked near the Russian Black Sea ports of Novorossiysk and Tuapse as Moscow struggles to continue exporting grain amid heightened Ukrainian strikes, according to people familiar with the matter.

Russia and Ukraine have stepped up attacks on each other’s commercial ships and ports in the Black Sea area, raising concerns about global grain supplies. The nations account for more than a quarter of global wheat exports, and the attacks come in the middle of this year’s harvest.

The attacks are the first confirmations of grain vessels serving the affected Russian ports coming under fire. Moscow has sought to play down the extent of the damage from the strikes as an increasing number of shipowners grow wary of the risks of calling at its ports.

Four vessels were hit on Tuesday morning, the people said, asking not to be named as the information is private. A fifth ship was hit on Monday, the people added.

The Victoria V, a Russian-flagged bulk carrier capable of carrying 7,000 tons of grain, was attacked at Novorossiysk, where it was due to load wheat. The Fehu, a Marshall Islands-flagged ship, was struck after leaving the same port with a cargo of wheat. The ship was able to continue its voyage, the people said.

Elina B, sailing under the Maltese flag, was hit after loading about 56,000 tons of wheat at Novorossiysk and is now heading toward the Bosphorus. Necibe, a San Marino-flagged bulker, was hit by drones at the port of Tuapse, where it was due to load about 20,000 tons of wheat.

A fifth vessel was struck on Monday. The Liberian-flagged Anna S was heading to Novorossiysk to load barley when a drone strike caused a fire onboard, leaving it unable to continue its voyage, according to the people.

The managers of the ships in question didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment.

Since July 10, drone attacks have completely halted shipments from Russia’s Azov Sea ports, which account for a quarter of the country’s grain exports. Last week, three terminals at the deep-water port of Novorossiysk announced they were suspending operations after one of the heaviest attacks since the war began.

source: Bloomberg https://archive.is/h3Nqt

Following a nighttime raid by Ukrainian drones in Ufa, a “small fire” broke out at one of the oil refineries, according to the head of the republic, Radiy Khabirov. “They are currently assessing the extent of the damage, but preliminary reports indicate that the [oil refining] unit, which is currently under repair, was hit. As always, any impact breaks pipes, so there is minor damage,” he said on his Max channel. According to the regional head, the damage is expected to be repaired within a few days. Rustam Sharipov, acting mayor of the Bashkir capital, wrote that Ufa “was subjected to yet another terrorist attack by UAVs.” Of the six drones, four were shot down, and one “crashed in an industrial zone—a fire is being extinguished there,” he reported.

One of Russia’s largest petrochemical and refining complexes is located in northern Ufa, comprising the “Bashneft-UNPZ,” “Bashneft-Ufaneftekhim,” and “Bashneft-Novoyl” facilities, with a combined capacity of 23.5 million metric tons per year. The authorities did not specify which plant was targeted. Nor did they disclose why the facility was undergoing repairs. This is likely a consequence of previous strikes by the Ukrainian Armed Forces on Ufa’s industrial zone. In August alone, the petrochemical complex was struck three times by Ukrainian drones, and prior to that, on multiple occasions in July and June. A fire broke out at the Rosneft oil refinery (“Bashneft-UNPZ”) following a drone attack on August 5.

In addition to the oil refinery, on August 19, one of the drones “apparently veered off course” and struck a residential building in the Zaton neighborhood of Ufa, Khabirov reported. Preliminary reports indicate that one person was injured—a medical student from India. “According to the latest information, he is fine and got away with just a scare. Nevertheless, we are examining him to make sure everything is okay,” the regional head stated.

According to Sharipov, several apartments and cars were damaged as a result of the “crash.” Authorities are assessing the extent of the damage to the building; an emergency response headquarters has been established, and a “temporary shelter” has been set up for the residents of the high-rise.

source: The Moscow Times https://archive.is/Cy4LQ

s "the capital's irritation with government policies" and "a split" within the Russian elite are reaching a breaking point.

Picture shows the level for the last 5 years. They will be having to sell gold reserves to prop it up again. At a certain point they will cease trading to stop collapse, as was done shortly after the 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/stock-market

Russians are withdrawing billions, causing liquidity problems for banks and undermining the Kremlin’s ability to issue bonds to finance the fight in Ukraine.

Russians are pulling billions from the country’s banking system ― a record cash outflow amid intensifying Ukrainian drone attacks and rising fear that the Kremlin could start seizing deposits to finance its war.

Nearly $3.4 billion (286.4 billion rubles) was withdrawn in the first two weeks of August, on top of the $7.3 billion withdrawn in July and more than $4.5 billion in June, according to Russian Central Bank data.

Total withdrawals this year could nearly double the amount taken out in the first year of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, according to Taras Skvortsov, a senior executive at Sberbank, Russia’s biggest retail financial institution.

The withdrawals are causing liquidity problems, according to Skvortsov and a former senior Russian finance official, overstretching a financial sector already strained by increasing levels of bad debts following a government-directed lending boom to ramp up military output.

“Drones are flying. Things are burning down. Nervousness is growing. And people’s everyday wisdom may be kicking in that they need to have cash under their pillow and not somewhere in banks where it may never be returned,” said the former finance official, who like others spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive issues.

“For some banks this really is a problem,” the former official said. “They didn’t expect this, and they invested all the cash elsewhere, and yet people are coming and taking out half a trillion rubles a month.”

Alexandra Prokopenko, a former adviser to the Russian Central Bank, said the withdrawals reflected deepening fear among the Russian public.

“It means people have no trust in the Russian banking system or in the Russian financial system,” Prokopenko said. “This is all a consequence of the fear that the government will do something with the banking system, that it could nationalize deposits.”

She said she believed that such a nationalization was unlikely but added, “I would not exclude that the authorities could impose limits on withdrawals.”

The total siphoned out this year already exceeds the $24.7 billion (2 trillion rubles) removed in the first year following the February 2022 invasion.

In the first two weeks of the invasion, $23 billion fled the system, and banks appeared to be imperiled by depositors and businesses lining up to empty their accounts, until the government stemmed the drain by imposing tough capital controls and sharply raising interest rates.

Now, big businesses are also seeking to move money out of the reach of Russian regulators as anxiety grows over potential asset seizures. That is further exacerbating the problems, the former official said.

In all, more than $9.4 billion was transferred out of Russia in the second quarter of 2026, according to Central Bank data.

“Each month there is a big outflow,” Skvortsov told RBK Radio, a Russian radio station. “If the trend continues things are not going to get better.”

The withdrawals have already undermined the Russian government’s efforts to raise money to finance the war through issuing state bonds.

The Finance Ministry last month was forced to cancel planned bond issues, even though it has become ever more dependent on them as a means of filling a yawning budget deficit as spending on the military continues to grow while the economy stalls.

Skvortsov told RBK Radio that the banks’ liquidity problems mean many cannot spare cash to buy government bonds.

“If there is an ominous sign of imperial overreach, this is clearly one of them,” said Craig Kennedy, a former vice chairman in investment banking at Bank of America Merrill Lynch who is now a scholar at Harvard University’s Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies.

“Great powers don’t have repeated treasury bond failures in the middle of a war,” Kennedy said.

As a result of government orders to ramp up lending to the defense sector, Russian banks “appear to have so much exposure to nonviable borrowers that they’re not certain how it’s going to get restructured, when it’s going to get restructured and how much of that they are going to have to eat,” Kennedy added.

In a sign of how sensitive the strain on Russia’s finances is becoming for the Kremlin, the chief economist at VEB, one of the country’s biggest state banks, Andrei Klepach, was fired from his post this weekend after commenting that Russia could not win a war of attrition against Ukraine while Kyiv is supported by the West.

“We won’t win the competition in this war of attrition,” Klepach said in a presentation he made in May, which was circulated in the media last week. “We’re under the illusion that everything [in Ukraine] will collapse. It hasn’t, and it won’t. Meanwhile, the costs we bear are mounting.”

Ever since Ukraine began expanding its drone campaign against Russian oil facilities this spring, taking out more than 30 percent of the country’s refining capacity and causing the worst fuel crisis since the fall of the Soviet Union, anxiety has intensified.

In June, the Russian Central Bank was forced to limit an expected interest rate cut because of fears that fuel price hikes could spur inflation. Panic spiraled through the bond market, driving interest rates up to 17 percent for the government’s 10-year bonds and forcing the Finance Ministry to postpone further issues.

With the budget deficit for January to July already at 6.46 trillion rubles ($76.1 billion) — far exceeding the 3.8 trillion rubles forecast for the entire year — fears are mounting that the Kremlin could seize big businesses’ revenue to finance the war.

“If the government needs cash, Putin will just do a grab for assets. He doesn’t care,” said an associate of one Russian billionaire. “And that’s where I think it’s heading.”

In addition, “there is the feeling that political power is becoming not quite as stable, and this is such a period when it is better not to be present,” the former finance official said.

Already several businesses owned by Russian billionaires have been targeted by the government in a nationalization drive that last year alone saw $51.5 billion in assets seized for the state, according to Russian prosecutors.

In June, the Russian state seized $7.6 billion (550 billion rubles) of assets linked to Vadim Moshkovich, who founded Rosagro, one of Russia’s biggest agricultural holdings, after the billionaire was detained and charged with large-scale fraud.

It was the biggest asset seizure in Russia since the start of the full-scale invasion. Others who have lost assets to the state include Dmitry Kamenschik, who previously owned Domodedovo airport in Moscow; and Konstantin Strukov, who controlled one of the country’s biggest gold mines.

Some economists argue that the Kremlin’s drive to direct bank lending into cranking up military output is strangling the civilian economy, especially because high interest rates and inflation leave banks and companies with few funds left for investment in nonmilitary sectors.

The Russian economy ground to a halt in the first half of 2026, with gross domestic product growth falling to 0.3 percent, compared with 1.2 percent in the first half of 2025.

For now, however, the Trump administration’s war with Iran has pushed oil prices back up and given the Kremlin a partial reprieve from its budget squeeze.

Russian state oil and gas revenue increased by 60 percent in July compared with the same month the previous year, as global oil prices rose, but it is still down 11 percent between January and July compared with the same period last year.

Ukraine’s attacks on Russian oil refineries as well as on the sprawling network of warehouses belonging to Wildberries, Russia’s largest online retailer, are also hitting Russian billionaires’ bottom line.

“It’s costing these guys money,” said the associate of the Russian billionaire, referring to Russia’s richest individuals. “They have to put their hands in their pocket. They’re not used to having all these problems.”

Ukraine has hit more than 20 Wildberries warehouses since it began targeting the company’s facilities on July 18, in an onslaught that some economists estimate has destroyed more than $6 billion in goods and caused more than $3 billion in damages to Wildberries infrastructure.

“It’s not a place you want to be doing business,” the billionaire’s associate added. “If you can pull money out, you do it.”

One Moscow business executive said, “Everyone who can is trying to move money out of the country, but it’s getting more and more difficult to do so.”

A key channel for removing money from Russia, amid increasing government restrictions on large cash transfers abroad, involves opening brokerage accounts in neighboring Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Armenia, according to the Moscow business executive and the former finance official.

“From there this money can be invested across the world,” the former finance official said.

As concerns grow over the war’s mounting financial toll, several senior officials have staged rare public interventions in recent weeks.

German Gref, the head of Sberbank, broke ranks at the end of June by publicly saying everyone wanted the war to end as soon as possible.

Then early in August, the powerful Moscow mayor, Sergei Sobyanin, spoke out against calls by hard-line members of parliament to further focus the economy on the war.

“If there’s no economy of peaceful life itself, there will be no taxes, no income for the population, the political situation will be completely different, and then we won’t achieve success in the war either,” Sobyanin told Tass, a state news agency. “And to kill life, to kill the civilian economy, is to kill the country itself.”

source: The Washington Post https://archive.is/xf6Ho