This company seems like a complete clusterfuck from a management perspective. Offices in Taiwan just got raided. However, there is no denying the growth in revenue and potential for margins to continue expanding if AI demand stays strong.
Is this a risk/reward worth taking?
Below the 200 day moving average on the weekly time frame. To me this company is a cash cow and isn't going anywhere. Buying opportunity?
It's time to revisit Figma, I bought during the IPO frenzy after reading the S-1, it was trading around 50x+ sales and today it's ~5.8x forward, tbh it's cheap versus its own history
The business itself is hard to argue with cause Figma has became the operating system teams build inside, each new seat and product lands in the same account at almost no extra cost and because the whole org's work now lives on that shared system, leaving isn't just an easy software swap, it's retraining everyone and rebuilding everything. One account, more products every quarter, each one making the next easier to sell and the whole relationship harder to leave
That lock in is visible in the numbers:
It also answered the bear case that crushed it. The fear during the SaaSpocalypse selloff and Claude Desing launch was that AI eats seat based pricing. Figma's response is to make AI usage credits on top of seats so more AI usage means more revenue, not less. The early data is showing most enterprise users who blew past their included credits kept paying for more, and teams that add credits spend 3x
The dip is real on price but GAAP profitability inflection does not look feasible in the short term: the GAAP loss is entirely stock compensation, but AI-inference costs are compressing margins and could push the GAAP inflection way into 2027 or 2028
If I buy, it's a <1% starter from my portfolio that earns its way up, full detailed analysis on my Substack for free:
Are you holding Figma, or waiting for a better entry?
Disclosure: I don't own FIG. Personal thesis, not investment advice. Do your own research.
I'm not interested in making this political or pointing a finger at what caused the screwworm to be in the US. We are here to talk about what financial impact this is going to have on the market.
At the time of writing this post we currently have 19 confirmed cases(3 inactive). I believe there to be many more cases that we have yet to identify.
We are currently bringing sterile flies from panama and dropping them along the border & in infested zones. This is an effective method of eradication but the issue is we do not have the production required to outbreed the screwworm. The government is currently building a new sterile fly breeding facility in Texas but it will not be producing sterile flies for at least a year. Screwworm is treatable but it first requires identifying the animal and then physically treating it with an injection such as Dectomax. Despite having tools like drones and helicopters, I think that the screwworm is going to outpace our efforts until the Texas facility starts pumping out sterile flies.
There are approximately 2.6 million feral hogs in the state of Texas and New World Screwworm can infest hogs. I'm cherry picking hogs because the state of Texas is already losing the battle against them despite greenlighting initiatives to eradicate the hog population. If screwworms infest these hogs Texas will be in for an even harder fight.
Zoetis ($ZTS) seems like it could be the company with the most skin in the game here. If beef prices are too high people might swap to chicken or pork. What are your thoughts?