r/JourneyTo10Million

44% of this drone company's float is sold short ($ONDAS). Its revenue just grew 13x

ONDS is a drone and defense company most people have never heard of, and 44% of its float is sold short. 235 million shares, per the latest FINRA data. Other drone names run 5 to 21%.

Here's what the shorts are betting against: revenue up 13x last quarter to a record $83.8 million, and full-year guidance just raised. The stock ran past $10 on earnings, then faded back to $9. The market clearly hasn't picked a winner yet.

So that's the setup. A business growing that fast with that many shares bet against it means somebody is about to be very wrong. And if it's the shorts, 235 million shares all need to find the exit at once.

Bonus from the options chain since someone will ask: there are 2.4 open calls for every put on this thing. 1.25 million call contracts on a $9 stock, and over 90,000 of them sit at the $10 strike, one dollar overhead. The dealers who sold those calls have to buy stock as the price climbs toward $10. So a move through $10 has two forced buyers behind it at once: shorts covering and dealers hedging. That's how squeezes compound. (CBOE data, OI as of yesterday's close.)

Also the weirdest line in the whole chain: somebody owns 118,000 January 2028 $5 puts. It's the single biggest position in the name, and it is not retail-shaped. Make of that what you will.

u/Got_Restarted — 2 days ago

▲ 65 r/JourneyTo10Million+2 crossposts

$2.9 billion is forced to buy Reddit stock at today's 4pm close

Reddit officially joins the S&P 500 before tomorrow's open, but the buying happens today. Index funds track the switch by buying at the last close before it, so roughly $2.9 billion of forced RDDT buying (about 3x its normal daily volume) lands in the 4pm closing auction this afternoon. Zero discretion involved.

It seems the "inclusion pop" trade is mostly gone sadly because the stock is getting clapped today.

However, here's the part that doesn't die: once you're in the index, every 401k contribution in America buys you on autopilot forever. Passive funds pulled in $951 billion last year and they never sell unless the index kicks you out. A chunk of the float basically leaves circulation for good. The chart is also still holding the trendline it's respected since IPO.

The event is priced in. The standing bid mostly isn't. Pretty decent place to be optimistic about the future!

u/Got_Restarted — 3 days ago

▲ 47 r/JourneyTo10Million+2 crossposts

$MU and $SNDK are exploding again as shorts get destroyed. Buying into this strength?

Micron is officially back over $1000/share and Sandisk is up 10% on the day pushing $1800/share.

This is in large part to extreme shorts of semiconductors that are no going belly up… Thanks Burry?

Either way, both of these names are trading well off of their highs. Worth it to keep buying into strength? Don’t fight the Trend right?

Also, planning to do a deep options analysis on both of these names in a new sub focused on market mechanics (r/MarketMechanics). If you want to be an original member there, we would love to have you!

Going to be watching these names throughout the cash session. Would not shock me if they keep rising.

u/Got_Restarted — 3 days ago

▲ 119 r/JourneyTo10Million+3 crossposts

Figma IPO hype is over? it's now trading at around 6x forward sales vs 50 times at the IPO. The dip arrived, but the profitability inflection didn't. Too early, or the entry?

It's time to revisit Figma, I bought during the IPO frenzy after reading the S-1, it was trading around 50x+ sales and today it's ~5.8x forward, tbh it's cheap versus its own history

The business itself is hard to argue with cause Figma has became the operating system teams build inside, each new seat and product lands in the same account at almost no extra cost and because the whole org's work now lives on that shared system, leaving isn't just an easy software swap, it's retraining everyone and rebuilding everything. One account, more products every quarter, each one making the next easier to sell and the whole relationship harder to leave

That lock in is visible in the numbers:

Net dollar retention up four straight quarters: 129% → 131% → 136% → 139%
~70% of customers on three or more products
~690k paid customers (+54% YoY), the $100K+ cohort up 48%

It also answered the bear case that crushed it. The fear during the SaaSpocalypse selloff and Claude Desing launch was that AI eats seat based pricing. Figma's response is to make AI usage credits on top of seats so more AI usage means more revenue, not less. The early data is showing most enterprise users who blew past their included credits kept paying for more, and teams that add credits spend 3x

The dip is real on price but GAAP profitability inflection does not look feasible in the short term: the GAAP loss is entirely stock compensation, but AI-inference costs are compressing margins and could push the GAAP inflection way into 2027 or 2028

If I buy, it's a <1% starter from my portfolio that earns its way up, full detailed analysis on my Substack for free:

https://open.substack.com/pub/equivara/p/figma-now-that-the-ipo-hype-is-gone?r=8g3sj2&utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=post%20viewer

Are you holding Figma, or waiting for a better entry?

Disclosure: I don't own FIG. Personal thesis, not investment advice. Do your own research.

open.substack.com

u/miguel_equivara — 7 days ago

▲ 138 r/JourneyTo10Million+2 crossposts

$SMCI just crushed earnings. Gotta be the most hated AI stock out there. Time to buy?

SuperMicroComputer, (SMCI) just smashed earnings:

- Revenue: $11.1 billion, est: $11.56 billion
- EPS: $1.7, est: $0.96

They missed on revenue but the larger worry was EPS. safe to say that absolutely killed there.

What are we thinking on this company guys? Buy or sell? Next few years certainly looks promising!

u/Got_Restarted — 9 days ago