u/Got_Restarted

ONDS is a drone and defense company most people have never heard of, and 44% of its float is sold short. 235 million shares, per the latest FINRA data. Other drone names run 5 to 21%.

Here's what the shorts are betting against: revenue up 13x last quarter to a record $83.8 million, and full-year guidance just raised. The stock ran past $10 on earnings, then faded back to $9. The market clearly hasn't picked a winner yet.

So that's the setup. A business growing that fast with that many shares bet against it means somebody is about to be very wrong. And if it's the shorts, 235 million shares all need to find the exit at once.

Bonus from the options chain since someone will ask: there are 2.4 open calls for every put on this thing. 1.25 million call contracts on a $9 stock, and over 90,000 of them sit at the $10 strike, one dollar overhead. The dealers who sold those calls have to buy stock as the price climbs toward $10. So a move through $10 has two forced buyers behind it at once: shorts covering and dealers hedging. That's how squeezes compound. (CBOE data, OI as of yesterday's close.)

Also the weirdest line in the whole chain: somebody owns 118,000 January 2028 $5 puts. It's the single biggest position in the name, and it is not retail-shaped. Make of that what you will.

Reddit officially joins the S&P 500 before tomorrow's open, but the buying happens today. Index funds track the switch by buying at the last close before it, so roughly $2.9 billion of forced RDDT buying (about 3x its normal daily volume) lands in the 4pm closing auction this afternoon. Zero discretion involved.

It seems the "inclusion pop" trade is mostly gone sadly because the stock is getting clapped today.

However, here's the part that doesn't die: once you're in the index, every 401k contribution in America buys you on autopilot forever. Passive funds pulled in $951 billion last year and they never sell unless the index kicks you out. A chunk of the float basically leaves circulation for good. The chart is also still holding the trendline it's respected since IPO.

The event is priced in. The standing bid mostly isn't. Pretty decent place to be optimistic about the future!

Micron is officially back over $1000/share and Sandisk is up 10% on the day pushing $1800/share.

This is in large part to extreme shorts of semiconductors that are no going belly up… Thanks Burry?

Either way, both of these names are trading well off of their highs. Worth it to keep buying into strength? Don’t fight the Trend right?

Also, planning to do a deep options analysis on both of these names in a new sub focused on market mechanics (r/MarketMechanics). If you want to be an original member there, we would love to have you!

Going to be watching these names throughout the cash session. Would not shock me if they keep rising.

SuperMicroComputer, (SMCI) just smashed earnings:

- Revenue: $11.1 billion, est: $11.56 billion
- EPS: $1.7, est: $0.96

They missed on revenue but the larger worry was EPS. safe to say that absolutely killed there.

What are we thinking on this company guys? Buy or sell? Next few years certainly looks promising!

SNDK data center revenue jumped +103% from last quarter and +1,298% YoY.

"Demand from our customer is growing faster than our supply, and we expect bits to remain on allocation beyond calendar 2027"

The company is posting absolutely absurd numbers while still being over $1000/share off of its ATH's. Elon also went on the record saying the memory bottle neck continues to get worse. It seems like the perfect storm.

You guys averaging in here?

PLTR is up nearly 8% after hours after crushing earnings. Here are the numbers:

Adj. EPS: $0.41 VS $0.35 est

REV: $1.935B VS $1.802B est

They are still a little overvalued in my opinion but I'm thinking about picking up shares because the rate of growth just hasn't stopped. What do you guys think? Buying opportunity here?

Also, I hear M Burry is still short!

Oracle CDS levels have been exploding as their debt piles up. FCF came in at -$23.7B last fiscal year with capex running ~83% of revenue, and they're on the hook for another ~$40B raise this year including a $20B ATM. ~47% of their backlog is comprised of a 300B deal with OpenAI which is making markets extremely nervous. NVDA just stepped in to support OpenAI on financing a new data center (nothing signed yet but trending in the direction of a deal) which should make it a bit easier for them to stay afloat in the future.

The stock is moving like it's pricing in bankruptcy lol.

Is Oracle overblown to the downside? Generational buy at $120/share?

Google just posted a MONSTER earnings report, generating ~119.8 billion in revenue in a single quarter. However, free cash flow is officially negative because the company is betting everything on AI. Anyone who uses frontier models knows how far behind Gemini is, but hey! Google cloud and legacy search will carry right?

Do you think Google is making the right call here? Is this stock a gift below $320?