r/Kioxia_stock

Kioxia is a sleeping dragon. Once it wakes up, it will be soaring in the sky and onto the moon. Best investment decision ever!! I am finally making some money after a whole month of setbacks. Not a financial advice.

NAND shortages are intensifying as Phison warns that it will take years to catch up to demand, signaling a rise in SSD prices.

According to Phison CEO Pua Khein-Seng, it is said that the NAND production capacity cannot meet demand in the short term. The company is building up a "strategic' inventory to ensure a stable supply of Enterprise SSDs for CSPs and AI firms for the next two years, but the demand is so high that it will take years for production to catch up.

>Phison's CEO states that while the impression in the market is that manufacturers can easily build & expand new production capacity, the reality is that the time required to set up new production is much longer. NAND manufacturers told Cheng that even the two-year timeline was ambitious, and it would actually take around four years to set up new production capacity.

>Pua Khein-Seng stated that the market often believes that after memory prices rise, manufacturers can quickly increase capital expenditures and expand production capacity, but in reality, the time required to add new NAND production capacity is much longer than the market imagines.

>He revealed that during a recent exchange with senior executives of the NAND manufacturer, he asked how long it would take from investment to actual mass production. He originally estimated it would take about two years, but the answer they gave was "four years". - Commercial Times

As such, the current estimation is that NAND shortages will persist for at least four years from now, and during this period, NAND prices will increase substantially as demand continues to grow. Phison will hold back from selling a large amount of its inventory as part of its "strategic" inventory since it will be unable to obtain a sufficient supply in the future, affecting its "long-term" partnerships.

To make matters worse, while AI firms and cloud providers are adjusting their DRAM specs, NAND capacity has not decreased that much, which highlights the importance of storage in the AI era. The rise of Agentic AI and GenAI use cases requires large amounts of data to be stored in the cloud, which means that more storage capacity is required.

For those not already aware, Phison design SSD controllers for Micron and Kioxia as well - Full article

Original source (Chinese)

>Such is the scale of NVIDIA's ongoing production ramp-up for its Vera Rubin platform that it's now manifesting itself in seemingly sparsely related nooks and cranies of the supply chain, such as the spot market for TLC NAND.

>In hindsight though, the rise in spot TLC prices is entirely reasonable, especially given the Context Memory eXtension (CMX) that NVIDIA is bringing onboard with the Vera Rubin platform.

>NVIDIA's production ramp-up of its Vera Rubin platform is squeezing TLC NAND supply by locking in a growing number of NAND cells within the CMX, and as enterprise SSD demand scales up in tandem. The spot price of a 512Gb TLC NAND has now hit $21 after falling below this level in June. And, there are a number of factors contributing to this renewed inflationary impulse.

>First, to handle the KV cache - the notes created by an AI model's attention layers as they form connections between words in a given input prompt - NVIDIA is introducing Context Memory eXtension (CMX) within the Vera Rubin platform.

>The CMX creates an intermediate storage tier between the HBM and the traditional backend network storage, functioning as a massive pool of TLC flash memory that is attached to the Rubin GPU cluster using NVIDIA BlueField-4 DPUs - that act as the 'intelligent brain' for a CMX server to handle KV cache in real-time - over ultra-fast Spectrum-X Ethernet.

>In fact, a single 2U CMX server holds 600TB of TLC flash storage, with each of the four DPUs managing 150TB of context memory, with pod-level capacity hitting a massive 9,600 TB or 9.6 Perabytes!

>Second, data centers require high-density, high-performance Enterprise SSDs (eSSDs) to handle AI workloads. And, as Vera Rubin ramps up, so does the demand for these eSSDs.

>Of course, do note that much of the TLC NAND that NVIDIA is now consuming is likely locked behind long-term contracts. Even so, the sheer scale of the oncoming demand is now tightening the spot market as well, and it remains to be seen how far this trend will go.

More good signs for SK's NAND demand/pricing power.

Full article (no paywall)

Kioxia was added to Nikkei 225 on April 1, 2026. Think of Nikkei 225 similar Dow Jones and TOPIX as S&P 500. So Index Funds and Pension Funds will be buying up Kioxia shares passively.

More stock demand = higher share price & less supply.

My price target is 3-4x from its current price. Not a financial advice.

I probably missed something. Please comment and let me know.

- Added to Three FTSE Russell's leading ESG investment indices: FTSE4Good Index Series, FTSE JPX Blossom Japan Index, and FTSE JPX Blossom Japan Sector Relative Index.

- Shareholders Return Plan: Dividends & Buybacks. ¥800B Share Buyback completed in the first week of August 2026.

- CM9 Series (Support Nvidia CMX Technology) samples begin shipping in 2H 2026.

- CM10 Series announced on July 30, 2026.

- 3-for-1 Stock Split: October 1, 2026.

- TOPIX Weight Rebalancing: More than 3X its current weight. October 2026.

- Q2 FY2026 Earnings: November 11-12 2026.

- Kioxia Moon Mission & Operations on the Lunar Surface: Late 2026.

- Kioxia will become the first company in human history to land SSDs on the Moon via SpaceX. Imagine the public exposure that would be. Kioxia SSDs have been operating on the International Space Station since January 2024.

- BiCS FLASH 10th-Gen Production Ramp: 2H 2026.

- New PCIe 6.0 / CM10 AI SSD Ramp: 2H 2026.

- Nvidia Vera Rubin Production Ramp: Partnership with Kioxia. 2H 2026.

- Q3 FY2026 Earnings: February 2027.

- US ADS Uplisting: Spring 2027.

- FY2026 Earnings & FY2027 Outlook: May 2027.

- 10 Million-IOPS SSDs showcased at FMS 2026. 100 Million-IOPS SSDs on track for 2027.

Every memory stock is going up while Kioxia is collapsing. This is stupid.

Good luck everybody. Kioxia needs to stay green both Thursday and Friday!!

Very happy with this purchase. Buy Two get One FREE on Amazon.

https://www.astrolab.space/flip-rover/

https://www.astrolab.space/2026/05/26/nasa-selects-astrolab-to-provide-lunar-rover-for-artemis-astronauts-return-to-the-moon/

https://blog-us.kioxia.com/post/2026/07/15/kioxia-at-hpe-discover-2026-from-ai-workloads-to-the-moon-and-beyond