u/LetsBeTheBest

Negative -55p/e for Spacex and their stock just went up 15% today, meanwhile under 6p/e for Micron that makes Spacex's yearly revenue in a single quarter is unable break the 900$ wall despite like ten positive catalysts a week. All the cyclical MFs will try to say, "but in the past this happened" even though MU has broken the cyclical pattern with strategic contracts, while spacex thesis is "Future Revenue from Mars or some shit"

Also this poser guy Burry should maybe short spacex, instead of companies bringing in actual revenue to back up their valuations

Which is your preferred platform/Launcher ?

I own games across all the three, and usually get the cheapest. But I do have a slight preference for GOG, because of being DRM free, so I can actually own the games. Steam for good deal deals, and especially if I want to stream to my TV/Phone via steam link.

We all know about the cycical past of Micron. Some new technology shows up (PC, Cloud Datacenters, Smartphones), memory demand goes up. Micron expands manufacturing voraciously to meet that demand, when the demand is peaked, Micron's supply still continues cranking up Memory chips. Then oversupply hits, and eclipses demand, causing Micron's margins to vanish and it ends up holding the bag.

This is how we've diverged from the cycles of the past. Micron has used today's shortage as a leverage to push customers into long term strategic contracts. Even not AI related, automobile manufacturers like Ford of GM estimated to be 20% of microns revenue, got onto these contracts. This is a structural shift.The important thing, is the three memory makers are now following this strategy. Companies like Apple is refusing to accept the new reality, and instead want to squeeze their supply chain for all it's got, to preserve it's own margins. But sooner or later, apple will have to face the new reality, and take a margin hit.

When Citadel bought the book from Situational awareness they inherited a 16B$ levered mess of AI positions, a large part of this is micron. Over the next two weeks atleast, any strength or bounce will be distributed into, if you keep an eye on the volume, you might notice it. Until this 16B$ book is unwound, we stay trapped below 900$, if macros remain the same and no new FUD creeps in. This is the major frustration we saw today, when we were down while most other AI names were going up. This is the unwinding happening at real time.

This is still a solid stock for the long term, but in the short term we have to pay for the greed of Situational awareness and Kospi. There's no way around it. If at all there's a plus side to all this, we know that Citadel is desperate to get this load off their backs, so they might use the media network to pump up some positive catalysts, so they can distribute into that strength. So we will see brief rallies quite often that go nowhere.