r/ModernaStock

Dear little fish trying to short Moderna and coming to this subreddit without any facts, just repeating the same nonsense about overvaluation, blah, blah... Look, there is a chance that this could be overvalued and make a 20% to 30% pullback, maybe... or it keeps going up because of FOMO.

The market can behave completely irrationally for a long, long time, as we saw over the past 2–3 years with Moderna, and we took full advantage of it.

So, I strongly advise against shorting anything, because timing stocks is extremely complex and you have to pay borrowing fees. Aside from all the literature and information you can gather about this amazing company that backs up its future value and a future target of $1,000...But if you want to do it, please keep coming back and showing us how you've put skin in the game with real screenshots. Thanks!

This might be one of several other factors that's supporting the rally.

I'm excited about being a part of this stock. What is your guys market cap target? Do you think it could reach the same as Eli Lilly ($1T)?

If people want to vent about their Moderna short-position losses, there are plenty of other places for that—Twitter, conservative subs, antivaxx subs, etc.

This subreddit was created to share facts, support each other, and keep things positive.

A lot of people here have leaned on each other all the way from $60 to $23. Some have been holding since $150. The core of this community is made up of people who rode it out together, and the culture here is naturally going to be more supportive of long, unlevered retail holders.

If you’re here to unload your “loss pain” from a short position, this probably just isn’t the right place for it. There are other communities where that kind of discussion will be more welcome.

This sub is for the people who are still here, still holding, and still supporting each other.

My suggestion to the mods is to start moderating overtly toxic, repetitive bearish posting. I’m completely fine with bearish views—they’re useful and can help me gauge whether it might be time to take some profits. But a lot of the short-focused posters here seem less interested in offering a genuine bearish perspective and more interested in using the sub as “loss therapy,” unloading their frustration and negativity from their losses onto the community.

Here I’m sharing a very recent interesting video take just posted 2 hours ago from Dan Costin, MD. What stood out to me is that he sees personalized cancer vaccines as potentially useful across all stages of lung cancer, not just in early-stage disease, and even raises the possibility of eventually de-escalating other treatments if the data become strong enough. That is obviously forward-looking, but it shows how broad the potential could be. Let’s keep sharing useful information like this.

Unrelated to the video above, with the recent increase in negativity from some bearish posters, I think we should use our own judgment about what is worth engaging with. If a bearish post is made in good faith and genuinely challenges or balances our bullish view, we should absolutely read it and consider it.

But if it comes with rabid insults, mockery, unnecessary provocation, or repetitive spam that adds no original angle, I think the best response is simply not to engage. I’m going to make it a rule for myself that when I see that kind of poster with no apparent goodwill, I will just mute them.

I’m not muting them because they are bearish, and I’m not trying to create an echo chamber. I want bearish information. I just want it without the emotional noise. The point is not to shield our bullish view from criticism, but to prevent pointless fights from making us unnecessarily defensive about the stock and emotionally invested in proving someone else wrong.

It’s perfectly fine to like the stock. But we should still try to keep our judgment as objective as possible.

I’ve also noticed, as another user pointed out, that some bearish posters don’t really engage with the specific material being shared. A new article, video, dataset, or argument gets posted, and instead of addressing it, they simply return to the same repetitive talking points. That doesn’t add much to the discussion.

Some also seem more interested in drawing attention to themselves than to the topic at hand. I’d rather we bring the focus back to the substance. Otherwise the discussion eventually descends into noise and chaos.

Ignoring bad-faith behavior is not the same as ignoring the bearish thesis. In fact, it is precisely because I want to hear useful bearish arguments that I would rather separate the information from the hostility and personal drama.

I've been looking at the Twitter/X/reddit bear posts around Moderna today, and I'm noticing a lot of comments along the lines of:

"Repost this" "I believe this guy" "Follow his short recommendation"

…often appearing underneath posts pushing Moderna short "double-downs."

Maybe it's nothing. But the sheer repetition and coordination of this kind of behavior feels sketchy enough that Moderna longs should be paying attention.

If there are organized or paid efforts to manipulate sentiment around Moderna, the longs in this sub need to be vigilant about calling them out rather than blindly amplifying them.

And I'm saying this because these tactics can work. Coordinated social-media campaigns have influenced public opinion and even political outcomes in other countries. Financial markets are obviously not immune to the same basic dynamics.

At the same time, the core members of this sub who have been here since late 2024 (and earlier) know that there are plenty of genuine, unlevered Moderna longs here. Real people with real positions, real conviction, and years of discussion behind them. Not bots or paid sentiment accounts.

So I'll once again put this question to the Moderna PR team, if anyone there is reading:

What is Moderna's strategy for countering potential paid or coordinated sentiment manipulation on social media?

I understand the obvious problem: Moderna can't simply respond by paying for positive sentiment. That could create serious legal, compliance, and reputational issues.

So what can a company like Moderna actually do?

How do you counter coordinated misinformation or artificial sentiment campaigns while staying on the right side of securities laws and corporate communications rules?

I'd genuinely be interested in hearing what the playbook is. Because if these tactics are being used against Moderna, simply ignoring them may not be enough.

Moderna and Arbutus are going head to head in the court of appeals in 4 weeks. If it settles beforehand I could see Moderna stock pop. This is what happened during the original settlement in March. The amount at stake is $1.3B. Any settlement for less than $1B will probably be viewed positively.

The short interest ratio for Moderna has fallen to around 10%. Interestingly, when the ratio stood at roughly 15% previously, the short exposure was about $3.3 billion. Now, the exposure has nearly doubled to $6.2 billion thanks to the sharp rally in its share price. Should the data presented at the end-of-month meeting turn out very strong, another short squeeze cannot be ruled out.