r/WENInvesting

Hello Everyone,

So anyone following me on here knows I am chasing the Wendy's ($WEN) turnaround thesis. I am not opposed to the occasional squeeze to put the pressure on, but that's not what I am chasing. Until the squeeze can hit the value I think this company will be worth in a few years, I'm not selling. I believe Bob Wright and Steve Cirulis are the right team to turn this company around. They are invested in the company (Bob certainly is) and have a successful track record of turning companies around.

Today's news solidifies my feelings on this position. When I first heard the news, I thought this could be a play to shake shorts out of their position, but that doesn't make any sense, the market is picking up on the play here. Peltz doesn't have any benefit in shaking the shorts loose. He has proposed a bid to taking Wendy's private in the past. Though unsuccessful, he has wanted to do this since 2022. He just heard the same news we all heard at the earnings report - something about that made him say, "now is the time to try again". Something about this asset has hit a point he wants to try again.

Personally, I think the honesty he heard out of Bob and Steve on the earnings call was what he needed. These two have been here a few months now, they have now pulled back the curtain and seen what's in store for them. It's more than they originally expected, but they got this. They know this industry, they know what they are doing and Peltz agrees. He saw a $7.50 a share and said, "that's a discount, let's grab this". I wish I had the money he has, because I agree.

If the market saw this as a short squeeze catalyst, we would have seen the price shed value throughout the day. We didn't see that - we saw the strongest volume profile is north of $8.25 and it should be noted, we are talking extreme volumes. We traded nearly 45 million shares today, recent 3-mo short term averages were hovering around 17.5 million shares a day, (6 month avg is 12M per day). Today's WVAP was $8.44 but yet we still closed at $8.66, this hype didn't lose steam throughout the day.

Going forward, it is going to be important to watch the news. Watch for the reputable news outlets to keep discussing this. Watch for who gets involved in this discussion and what the proposed offer might be. This IS NOT a guaranteed thing, at the moment, this is hype. This is the hype we have been hoping for. Even if this deal doesn't go through, a major investor sees the same value we are seeing. Hold. Hold strong. I would not recommend buying right now, there is too much up in the air at the moment. But even if this deal falls through or fizzles out, this is the news we wanted to see. This is going to get eyes on what is happening here.

I know today might have felt a little rough, but we are still in a good place.

The stock experienced a sharp pre-earnings pull back on elevated volumes, giving back its breakout above the 200-SMA yesterday and returning to the primary value area established throughout the past week. Despite today's reversal, and heavy volume, the stock still closed above its 50-SMA and within the largest recent volume shelf, suggesting the price is returning to an accepted value rather than breaking down entirely. Investor optimism clearly cooled off today ahead of earnings, but the market didn't abandon the stock.

The focus now shifts entirely to management's ability to provide evidence that Project Fresh and the Writght/Cirulis leadership team are making measurable progress.

Yesterday was the market pricing in hope, today it's demanding proof. Tomorrow morning we will find out whether management can provide that proof!

Please remember - Q2 is April, May, and June. Wright didn't start until May, and Cirulis didn't start until June. Throughout most of Q2, the only thing Wendy's had going for it was Project Fresh, that was launched in October 2025. We now have 6+ months of that project - what I want to hear tomorrow is how is that going? Are they seeing improvement? Has there been a reduction in the decline of same-store-sales? If any (and hopefully all) of those things are positive, whatever happens to this stock's price over the next couple of weeks, hold on and hold on tight, because that's the sign this thing is turning around and Q3 is going to be terrific.

thatguybuddy said it earlier and I agree with him - "if tomorrow is a flat line I'm good to stick around for Q3" - but I would go a step further, even if the price falls to $7.00 and I like what I hear around Project Fresh, I am jumping all over more shares