I tracked over 1,200 watches that sold at auction twice. Half of them lose money even before fees. After fees, 83% did.
I have noticed a lot of subs for watches talk about investments and watches holding value or going up. i wanted to actually check that instead of just reading about it so i spent way too much time this week pulling together all the auction results from a few houses back about 30 years. Then i went looking for the same watch selling more than once, not just two of the same ref, the exact same watch.
After all of it i found over 1,200 of them. This is what happened between the sales:
Median result was about +1% total, not per year, just total, over about two years of owning it. Basically nothing, just under half sold for less than they cost before a single fee.The fees are where it gets even worse, and i have a feeling id get a reply "you forgot the buyer's premium". I didnt, thats the point. These prices are what the buyer actually paid, premium included, on both ends. You pay premium going in and commission coming out so the hammer has to climb about 44% before youre even back to even as the seller. only 16% of these got there. Count the auction house's cut and 83% of them lost money.
I tried hard to disprove these before posting, it isnt survivorship (matched pairs, losers included, and the ones that tanked so hard nobody resold them arent even here). It holds same-house-only and one-pricing-basis-only. Holding periods run from under a year to over five. And its nominal, so after inflation the median lost money in real terms.
What i cant see is private and dealer sales. If that side behaves differently, tell me. And my fee numbers are mid-range (27% premium, 12% commission). If you actually consign, what do you really pay?
Not saying watches are a bad thing to own, buy what you love and wear it. Just that "watches are an investment" doesnt really survive the round trip data for the average one (AT AUCTION!). If you want a specific slice run, drop it in the replies and i will run it.