r/bostonceltics

I’m seeing *a lot* of posts and comments on the new report about Jaylen going off script in the Philly series this year.

That’s led to a bunch of podcasts talking about his shot creation value in the playoffs. How him going off script is what makes him so valuable. And that to an extent is true. His 24 run was by far his best post season and it resulted in a ring, an ECFMVP (however unearned it was) and an FMVP (which was much more fair).

I decided to go back and look at the last 3 post seasons not including the 2024 run. And i think it’s easy to see why the Celtics question what Jaylen would have brought if you bring him back.

Here are Jaylens stats In each of the last 3 series where the Celtics have been eliminated:

PHI - 25.7 PPG 6.7 RPG 3.3 ASTS 3.5 TOVs 55.1% TS

NYK - 21.1 PPG 5.7 RPG 5.2 ASTS 4.6 TOVS 49.6% TS

MIA - 19.0 PPG 6.1 RPG 3.4 ASTS 3.5 TOVs 46.4% TS

To contrast, here are Tatum’s stats.

PHI - 23.3 PPG 10.7 RPG 6.8 ASTS 2.8 TOVs 60.8% TS

NYK - 25.5 PPG 11.8 RPG 5.5 ASTS 3.7 TOVs 52.2% TS

MIA - 25.3 PPG 10.3 RPG 5.4 ASTS 3.7 TOVs 58.8% TS

I think brads argument is that you can’t have someone who gives you low level efficiency on high volume, no playmaking, a ton of turnovers, and pay him 35% of the cap.

And it’s not just the playoffs.

This season, Jaylen finished 5th in TOs. Only two players in the top 25 of TOs had fewer assist than Jaylen: KD. But KDs finished the season at 64.1% True shooting. Massively outpacing Jaylen at 57.5%

I know that sounds harsh, especially considering that it is hard to score in the postseason. There was massive value in Jaylen’s scoring in that 2024 run.

But I do think there is another part to this:

Do you really think Jaylen wants to go back to second fiddle? He talked at length about his love for this season. He loved taking all those shots. But a guy who doesn’t give you playmaking and is TO machine cannot be your highest usage guy in this NBA. The option to bring him back became less palatable as the season moved on.

That’s not to say I love the return, but I would bet when we hear the execs say what they have about Jaylen, this is what they’re talking about.

Due to the new lottery rules 51-53 wins is about = to 60 wins last season.

There is usually 5-6 tanking teams each year, and by the All-star break there is usually 10 tanking teams, if not more.

The east in particular is very competitive with

• Indy getting Hali back.
• Atlanta took 2 games off the Knicks in the playoffs.
• Charlotte may still be good.
• Washington with Trae/AD/Dybansta may be decent.
• Sixers are better.
• Miami all in with Giannis
• Raptors going all in with Kawhi
• Magic is still all in
• I didnt even list the actual good teams: Knicks/Cavs/Pistons/Celtics

For example, next season people are going to claim things like "Lakers are better with Lebron!" because of the record being worse, and that sort of thing will happen to every team. All sorts of wrong conclusions are going to be drawn without factoring in the dramatic changes in the rules which immediately now so many teams are "going for it".

All the way back to when Gordon Hayward suffered that horrific injury, everyone said our season was over.

Instead, we took LeBron to 7 games in the Eastern Conference Finals without Kyrie Irving or Gordon Hayward. Jayson Tatum announced himself to the world.

The next season fell apart—not because we lacked talent, but because the locker room became toxic. Expectations crushed us, chemistry disappeared, and we were bounced in the second round.

Kyrie left. Al Horford left. We brought in Kemba Walker, and everyone counted us out again.

2020: We made another Eastern Conference Finals. Tatum and Brown proved the future was in good hands.

2021: Injuries, COVID, and inconsistency derailed the season. We were eliminated in the first round, but the foundation was still there.

2022: New coach. Historic second-half turnaround. Swept Brooklyn, beat the defending champion Bucks, survived Miami in seven, and reached the NBA Finals.

2023: Another 50+ win season. Came back from 0-3 against Miami to force Game 7 before falling one game short of the Finals.

2024: Brad Stevens went all in. Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porziņģis arrived. The Celtics dominated from opening night, won 64 games, and brought Banner 18 back to Boston.

2025: Jayson Tatum suffered a devastating Achilles injury in the playoffs. The championship window suddenly looked uncertain, and the roster began to change.

2026: Jaylen Brown traded FOR PG. Another era ended. The media declared the Celtics finished

THIS IS JUST ANOTHER YEAR, AND ANOTHER YEAR TO PROVE THEM WRONG

Bleed GREEN 💚

From Marc Stein on X:

The Celtics have officially announced a Monday afternoon press conference for president of basketball operations Brad Stevens and new majority owner Bill Chisholm to discuss the Jaylen Brown trade after the league's annual moratorium is lifted and the deal is made official.

Brad didn’t trade Jaylen just to make some babyshit move like going after Trey Murphy or whatever. He’s going to go big game hunting.

Paul George and Nikola Jokic have basically the same contract. 1 guaranteed year left and then a player option for ~$60m. Their contracts match up financially and length wise.

Jokic has been eligible to sign his contract extension all offseason but hasn’t. Why? Because he’s waiting to see if the Nuggets can put a decent roster together around him. Instead, they lost Valancunas and Tim Hardaway Jr, and are gonna salary dump Cam Johnson so they can resign Payton Watson. They’re gonna be worse than the team that lost in the first round last season.

Jokic is gonna ask out next summer and we’re gonna be right there with a $60m expiring contract and 6 first rounders to capitalize on it.

TIB

It's certainly not a likely scenario, but a potentially funny one. Maybe Philly immediately becomes "Jaylen's team" and he continues last season's trend of being "the man".

Brown averaged 28.7 points with .477/.347/.795 shooting (.573 TS%)

Obviously, being only behind Luka in usage (35.1%) and shot attempts (21.7 FGA) league wide leads to a lot of scoring opportunities.

Start with looking at Maxey who last season was only a hair behind Brown in shot attempts at #3 in the league 21.4. He averaged just a hair less points (28.3). .462/.367/.892. TS% of .588. Usage was 29.4%.

Bottom line is that Maxey scored about the same amount of points, but with higher shooting efficiency and that should make him the #1 option with Brown slotting in as the Robin to his Batman. Since Brown has reached stardom, we saw his Robin stats fluctuate from 20.3 ppg (2019-20) to 26.6 ppg (2023)

In 2024, when Brown was the 2nd option a team with Tatum (26.9 points - 19.3 FGA), Porzingis (20.1 points - 13.2 FGA), White (15.1 points - 11.5 FGA) and Holiday (12.5 points - 10FGA), he took 17.9 shots and on great efficiency (.499/.354 with .580 TS%) averaged 23 ppg. Usage was 28.3%

Embiid's health and Edgecombe's growth are obviously big factors here as well.

A big reason for Maxey's scoring explosion was that Embiid's last 3 seasons he's played 39, 19, and 38 games. Probably that trend continues. Embiid's usage the last 3 injury prone seasons = (33.6%, 34.2%, 38.7%). Embiid took 18.3 FGA last season. When last healthy, he was taking 19-22 shots per night on .655 TS% (higher than both Maxey and Brown). Is there a chance that Embiid puts together a stretch of healthy games and that actually knocks Brown to the Batgirl to Maxey/Embiid's Batman and Robin? We've never seen what 3rd option Jaylen Brown averages for field goal attempts.

Edgecombe is also one to keep an eye on. Behind Embiid, Maxey and George last season, his usage was only 20.1%. He averaged 16 points on .438/.354/.818 on 13.7 FGA and a.540 TS%. However, keep in mind he was only 20 years old and obviously has huge potential. Consider someone like Jayson Tatum who as a 20 year old averaged very similar stats (15.7 points on 13.1 FGA and .547 TS%). The next season he took a leap and averaged 23.4 points on 18.6 FGA with .567 TS%. Presumably Edgecombe will keep developing. Will he make a leap? At what point in Jaylen's 3 year contract does Edgecombe leapfrog him as a talent? Is there a small chance that Brown actually gets knocked down to the Alfred Pennyworth to Maxey/Embiid/Edgecombe's Batman/Robin/Batgirl?

Then of course the small tiny possibility they also add LeBron on his retirement tour. LeBron averaged 15 FGA last season with .594 TS%.

At some point, there's just too many mouths. Consider when in 2008 Boston formed a big 3. KG went from 17.6 FGA to 13.9 FGA, Pierce went from to 18.1 FGA to 13.7 FGA, and Ray went from to 21 FGA to 13.5 FGA and all of them averaged under 20ppg.

Again, perhaps Brown just takes over that offense, everyone else falls in line, and they flourish with Brown proving he's a legit MVP candidate. Or maybe, just maybe, he sees a big decrease in his offensive output. This could either be a positive thing with him willingly accepting a 3rd-4th banana role, or a source of conflict, but it's still a possibility.

Pritchard, on the other hand, may continue to just come off Boston's bench and continue his trend last season of averaging 17 ppg on 13.8 FGA with .464/.377/.890 and TS% of .584. Pritchard's usage had been behind Brown, White and also Simons and Tatum when they played at 21.5%. When Brown sat (only 10 game sample size where Boston won 8 games), we saw Pritchard's usage jump to 29% and his output increase to 25.2 points, 20 FGA with excellent 485/.444/.957 shooting splits. I think the big questions here is that with Brown out of the mix, does this elevate Pritchard's offensive role? Will he continue coming off the bench? Did Boston just see a similar sized Brunson win a title and gain confidence Payton is ready to take on the challenge of being Boston's 2nd option? If Tatum's recovery proves to be a problem and he misses more games, who is is more likely to get the keys to the offense in his absence - Pritchard or 36 year old George?

Is there a chance here that Payton Pritchard ends up averaging around 24 while Brown averages 22? Maybe not, but it's a fun thought exercise here. It's also fun to think of how the media/fans, who seemingly put more weight into bulk stats like PPG over advanced stats, will start to see these two players. On the extremely unlikely end, is there some hilarious outcome where Pritchard gets more all-nba votes than Brown?

TL;DR: Simple usage and shot attempt distribution could see an unlikely scenario where Philly has too many mouths to feed Brown his usual shot meals while Pritchard is eating well on the new look Boston.

Tbh as time has passed and it's really sunk in, I'm not as upset as I was when the trade first happened. Of course it sucks to lose a 10 year home grown star, but the stats did say that we were better with JB off the court and worse with him on. As long as PP is able to take a step up (avg 25/7/4 without JB), white gets back to his previous years of shooting, and PG is able to knock down 3s since he shoots 6% better than JB from 3, I think they will shock a lot of people and at least secure a top 3-4 seed. Maybe even Tatum takes another step and wins MVP.

High usage Tatum is one of the winningest contributors in the NBA.

On a team with more ball movement and a more versatile offensive and defensive profile, I think Tatum is going to average 30-10-7 on elite efficiency leading the Celtics 1st seed finish.

I also anticipate Pritchard taking the next step this season and becoming a bonafide top 10 offensive pg in the league. Squad has better offensive rebounding now meaning more second chance points + having a more solid frontcourt means a disruptive backcourt defender like Derrick White will have a field day. Expect more pts off to + 2nd chance pts this year.

Coming off the achilles injury (and the JB trade), the narrative is going to be there, too. My prediction is that he has an MVP in the tank to secure himself at the top of the NBA, where he belongs, with Giannis, Jokic and SGA - and this will be the season.

Between PP not retiring a Celtic.

IT being traded after avg 29 per game, suiting up in the playoffs and dropping 53 points after losing his sister.

Marcus being traded after winning dpoy and being the heart and soul of the team.

Letting Horford walk in free agency twice.

Now JB traded for peanuts to a division rival.

Several recent examples of the Celtics front office being ruthless and not honoring or respecting guys who exhibited Celtic pride to the fullest. I feel like all these guys deserved better.

Anyone who sees Brett Siegel’s name on any reporting about the Celtics needs to discredit and not repost. He literally just lies. He has no sources. He is a fraud. Please stop reposting anything with his name on it