
A company selling screws and bolts trades at 39x earnings. That's the actual debate here, not the fasteners.
Fastenal grew revenue 14.7% this quarter with flat sales volumes. That gap is basically the whole debate on this stock.
They distribute fasteners, tools, safety products, industrial supplies to manufacturing and construction customers. Founded 1967, genuinely durable moat built on switching costs, once a customer's got Fastenal's vending machines, inventory management, and procurement systems wired into their operations, ripping that out for a competitor is a real pain.
Q2 2026 revenue came in at $2.39B, up 14.7% YoY, beat the $2.34B estimate. GAAP EPS of $0.33 matched consensus exactly. Growth was broad too, heavy manufacturing up 18.1%, total manufacturing up 14.9%, non-residential construction up 17%.
Here's the part actually worth sitting with though. Sales volumes were flat year over year. All 14.7% of that growth came from contract signings, pricing actions, and taking more share of existing customers' purchasing. Operational execution and pricing power, basically, not the industrial economy actually moving more volume. Free cash flow margin also slipped to 8.4% from 10.1% a year ago, gross margin down about 75bps on tariff and supplier cost pressure. They're putting roughly $320M into 2026 capex on hubs, automation, and vending infrastructure to keep deepening that customer lock-in.
Valuation's really the whole argument here. Trades around 38-39x earnings, and Wall Street's leaning cautious on it, one recent tally showed zero buy ratings against 11 holds and 4 sells. Fair value estimates I've seen range pretty widely, low $30s to around $40, generally at or below the current price. There's also a leadership change happening, longtime CEO Daniel Florness stepped down from both the board and the CEO role in mid-July.
Business quality's not really in question, that moat is real. What I can't square is whether that quality justifies almost 39x earnings when volume growth is flat and margins are getting squeezed by tariffs at the same time.
Anyone hold Fastenal comfortable with the multiple here, or is the flat-volume detail enough to make you wait for a better entry?