r/nrl

▲ 40 r/nrl

Round 12 | Raiders vs Dolphins | Match Thread

Raiders vs Dolphins
GIO Stadium, Canberra
Thursday, May 21, 2026
6:25pm AEST / 8:25pm NZST
Watch on Nine, 9Now, Foxtel, Kayo and Sky Sports NZ
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u/AutoModerator — 19 hours ago
▲ 21 r/nrl

Sledge Thread - ROUND 12 - DO NSW JUST GET REDDIT?

I CANNOT BELIEVE CASEY MAGUIRE IS FINALLY GETTING HIS DUES, AFTER ALL THIS TIME

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u/AutoModerator — 24 hours ago
▲ 55 r/nrl

TBT: South Sydney pull off the joint-second biggest comeback in NRL history (Cowboys v Rabbitohs, Round 16, 2008)

u/The_Saints_Are_Comin — 23 hours ago
▲ 18 r/nrl

Thursday Random Footy Talk Thread

This is the place to discuss anything footy related that is not quite deserving of its own top-level post.

There's a new one of these threads every day, so make sure you're in the most recent one!

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u/AutoModerator — 1 day ago
▲ 17 r/nrl

BS Power Rankings: Round 12 2026

Hi Everyone!

Here's your BS Power Rankings for Round 12:

Ranking Team Offensive Rating Defensive Rating Total Rating Top 8 Top 4 Minor Premiers Premiers Wooden Spoon
1 (-) Panthers 4.94 (3) 7.63 (1) 12.56 (-1.31) 99.98% 99.1% 79.7% 34.6%
2 (+1) Sea Eagles 4.44 (4) 3.16 (2) 7.60 (+1.61) 92.9% 61.9% 3.4% 15.1% 0.0001%
3 (-1) Roosters 5.32 (1) 1.83 (4) 7.15 (-1.50) 91.2% 58.2% 3.8% 13.8%
4 (+1) Warriors 2.69 (7) 2.85 (3) 5.54 (+1.93) 97.0% 76.1% 11.5% 13.3%
5 (-1) Sharks 5.07 (2) -0.34 (8) 4.74 (+1.08) 69.8% 22.3% 0.3% 6.0% 0.007%
6 (+1) Dolphins 2.44 (8) 1.66 (5) 4.09 (+1.84) 64.6% 19.8% 0.3% 5.1% 0.01%
7 (+1) Storm 2.19 (9) 1.12 (6) 3.30 (+1.88) 28.3% 3.2% 0.01% 1.7% 0.05%
8 (+1) Cowboys 2.95 (6) -0.65 (9) 2.30 (+1.41) 72.0% 23.7% 0.6% 4.4% 0.0004%
9 (-3) Broncos 0.48 (11) -0.08 (7) 0.41 (-1.95) 29.4% 3.4% 0.01% 1.1% 0.06%
10 (+1) Knights 3.37 (5) -3.76 (14) -0.39 (+1.77) 67.4% 19.1% 0.2% 2.6% 0.001%
11 (-1) Rabbitohs 1.77 (10) -3.01 (13) -1.24 (-1.83) 48.6% 10.2% 0.2% 1.6% 0.01%
12 (-) Raiders 0.22 (12) -2.55 (10) -2.33 (+0.04) 15.9% 1.3% 0.003% 0.4% 0.3%
13 (-) Tigers -1.83 (14) -4.24 (15) -6.07 (-1.80) 18.0% 1.6% 0.01% 0.2% 0.3%
14 (-) Eels -0.66 (13) -6.31 (17) -6.98 (-1.67) 2.4% 0.1% 0.03% 2.5%
15 (-) Bulldogs -4.67 (15) -2.88 (12) -7.56 (-1.03) 2.3% 0.1% 0.0002% 0.03% 3.4%
16 (-) Titans -6.21 (16) -2.79 (11) -9.00 (-1.67) 0.4% 0.01% 0.01% 12.8%
17 (-) Dragons -7.86 (17) -6.28 (16) -14.14 (+1.20) 0.003% 80.5%

Projected Ladder:

Rank Team Pts (W-L) PD
1 (-) Panthers 46 (20-0-4) 380
2 (+1) Warriors 40 (17-0-7) 220
3 (-1) Roosters 38 (16-0-8) 145
4 (-) Sea Eagles 36 (15-0-9) 234
5 (+3) Cowboys 34 (14-0-10) 35
6 (+3) Knights 34 (14-0-10) 35
7 (-2) Sharks 32 (13-0-11) 108
8 (+2) Dolphins 32 (13-0-11) 97
9 (-3) Rabbitohs 30 (12-0-12) 36
10 (-3) Broncos 30 (12-0-12) -56
11 (+1) Storm 28 (11-0-13) 21
12 (-1) Tigers 28 (11-0-13) -84
13 (-) Raiders 26 (10-0-14) -107
14 (+1) Eels 24 (9-0-15) -244
15 (-1) Bulldogs 22 (8-0-16) -197
16 (-) Titans 18 (6-0-18) -225
17 (-) Dragons 14 (4-0-20) -398

Round 12 - BS Machine Predictions:

GAME 1: Raiders (39.1%) vs Dolphins (60.5%) - Projected Score: 23 - 28

GAME 2: Bulldogs (30.1%) vs Storm (69.5%) - Projected Score: 18 - 28

GAME 3: Dragons (17.5%) vs Warriors (82.3%) - Projected Score: 14 - 32

GAME 4: Sea Eagles (85.1%) vs Titans (14.7%) - Projected Score: 34 - 12

GAME 5: Cowboys (64.8%) vs Rabbitohs (34.9%) - Projected Score: 31 - 24

Round 11 - BS User Model Predictions*:

GAME 1: Raiders (48.2%) vs Dolphins (49.8%) - Projected Score: 22 - 22

GAME 2: Bulldogs (33.3%) vs Storm (65.5%) - Projected Score: 14 - 27

GAME 3: Dragons (5.6%) vs Warriors (93.6%) - Projected Score: 11 - 35

GAME 4: Sea Eagles (84.2%) vs Titans (14.7%) - Projected Score: 34 - 13

GAME 5: Cowboys (77.0%) vs Rabbitohs (20.9%) - Projected Score: 31 - 19

*Based on 11 user predictions per game to time of posting

BS Machine Record (2025-2026)*:

Predicted Win Percentage Number of Predictions Number of Wins Win Percentage Win Percentage (2025 Model)
0 - 10% 2 1 50.0% 0.0%
10 - 20% 4 0 0.0% 28.0%
20 - 30% 25 10 40.0% 33.3%
30 - 40% 26 11 42.3% 46.7%
40 - 50% 31 14 45.2% 50.0%
50 - 60% 32 18 56.3% 48.0%
60 - 70% 25 14 56.0% 55.0%
70 - 80% 25 15 60.0% 66.7%
80 - 90% 4 4 100.0% 70.8%
90 - 100% 2 1 50.0% 100.0%

* First 5 rounds predicted with outdated model calibration

User Model Record (2026)*:

Predicted Win Percentage Number of Predictions Number of Wins Win Percentage
0 - 10% 1 0 0.0%
10 - 20% 5 0 0.0%
20 - 30% 14 5 35.7%
30 - 40% 10 2 20.0%
40 - 50% 12 6 50.0%
50 - 60% 10 6 60.0%
60 - 70% 8 6 75.0%
70 - 80% 14 9 64.3%
80 - 90% 5 5 100.0%
90 - 100% 1 1 100.0%

* No predictions prior to Round 7

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u/BroncosSabres — 1 day ago