Looking at the Kelsey Mitchell/Indiana Fever Free Agency Situation with an NBA Historical Lens
I have a pretty strong opinion that the Fever should do what it takes to keep Kelsey Mitchell. I don't deny that there are players who are more defensive-minded with more of an all-around game that might be a better fit and actually might improve the team.
However, I don't see any of those players as a possibility as they don't exist on the free agency market, and the Fever don't really have any assets to trade outside of draft picks and two young players they'd probably like to keep (Timpson and Raven).
I've come to the conclusion that many Fever fans are of the belief that they are going to be able to replace Kelsey with a really good player. I had a back-and-forth on another platform with a fan who said, "We don't really need someone who scores 25ppg and gives nothing else. We need someone who gives us more like 18/5/4."
I looked. The number of players who averaged at least 18pts, 5rebs, and 4asts was exactly zero. And if there was such a player, they'd already be on a max contract and would certainly not be available in free agency or via a trade based on what Indiana could offer.
Caitlin and Kelsey together are also one of the toughest defensive matchups for almost every opponent in the league. It is their primary competitive advantage.
But what happens if Kelsey leaves? Can the Fever still compete after losing an All-WNBA and MVP candidate who put up one of the greatest scoring seasons in league history?
I decided to take a look at the last few decades of NBA History to see what happened in similar situations. Here are the parallels I was looking for:
- A team with two stars (loosely defined as an All-Star, but All-NBA would be even better) with one deciding to leave. Bonus points for a 3rd star that can represent Boston.
- The player leaves via free agency but a trade is fine so long as it brings back rotation-level players. Or if the player was salary-dumped, the team added another player(s) via free agency.
- The team losing the star player, decides to compete instead of rebuilding. This is the main key.
- I avoided teams with two young stars like Steph/KG or Vince/TMac. I wanted at least one to be more established.
Let's look at some comparisons:
2024-25 Minnesota Timberwolves
The previous season, The Wolves finished 3rd in the West and made it to the conference finals on the backs of their big 3: Anthony Edwards, Karl Anthony-Towns, and Rudy Gobert. The KAT/Gobert fit wasn't perfect and KAT's contract limited their roster flexibility, so they flipped him to the Knicks for players deemed a better fit: Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo.
What happened next? The team dropped from 56 to 49 wins and went from 3rd to 6th place. However, the end result was the same with them losing in the conference championship. The next year, last year, they had the same exact record and finish in the standings only to fall in the second round being hit by the injury bug.
It should be noted that Towns ended up winning a title with the Knicks, of course.
This is probably the best-case scenario for the Fever.
2016-17 Oklahoma City Thunder
Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant came so very close to knocking off the 73-win Warriors in the conference finals the year prior. Kevin Durant then decides to join said Warriors team leaving Russ behind.
The Thunder add a solid player in Victor Oladipo along with Domantas Sabonis by trading Serge Ibaka to the Magic. Oladipo is good but Sabonis isn't ready to contribute.
The Thunder go from 55 to 47 wins and a first round exit.
2004-05 Dallas Mavericks
The previous season, the Mavs big 3 of Nowitzki, Nash, and Finley lead the team to a 52-30 record, 3rd in the West, and 1st round playoff loss. The lead the league in scoring but are 2nd to last in defense.
Owner Mark Cuban decided to let Nash walk in free agency and instead opted to improve his defense with Erick Dampier. Shaq would refer to him as "Ericka" as Cuban made the claim that the signing Dampier would give them a better chance against him.
Along with Dampier, they add Jason Terry, and Josh Howard improves helping the team to a 58-24 record and 2nd place finish. They would lose in the 2nd round to Nash's Suns with Nash winning the first of his back-to-back MVPs that season.
The following year, Dallas would finish with 60 wins, good for 2nd in the West, and lose to Miami in the Finals. And Dwyane Wade just shot another FT as I was writing this.
2015-16 Portland Trailblazers
Rising superstar Damian Lillard paired with LaMarcus Aldridge, by then a 4-time all-star and all-NBA 2nd teamer, to lead Portland to a 51-31 record and 6th place finish in the West the previous season. There was a lot to hope for with this team and pairing.
After the season, Aldridge decides to leave to the Spurs. The Blazers struggle to replace him, going with guys like Al-farouq Aminu and Mason Plumlee. CJ McCollum does take a leap, and while the team drops to 44 wins, they make it to the 2nd round. They wouldn't make it out of the first round again until 2018-19 when they make the conference finals.
1996-97 Orlando Magic
Shaq and Penny, those were the days. After making the finals in 1995, they win 60 games and make it to the conference finals only to be swept by the Bulls. Shaq obviously leaves for the Lakers.
The Magic pick up Rony Seikaly to "replace" him. He's a serviceable big man with a decent offensive game but otherwise pretty forgettable. The Magic end up with 45 wins and a first round exit.
However, it should be noted that injuries bothered Hardaway that year (and really, the rest of his career) and limited him to 59 games. The Magic would go 38-21 with him in the lineup and 7-16 without.
2004-05 Los Angeles Lakers
The previous season, the Lakers lose to Detroit in the Finals and after the season, after deciding they don't want to pay the aging Shaq, decide to trade him to the Miami Heat.
The Lakers get a decent package in return but nowhere near the value of Shaq. Kobe takes the reigns and with Lamar Odom and Caron Butler and finish 34-48 and of course miss the playoffs. They wouldn't make it out of the first round until winning the title in 2008.
I could do Shaq leaving Miami, too, but let's move on...
It's obviously not hopeless if Indiana loses Kelsey Mitchell. Obviously, a lot depends on who they get to replace her in free agency, who they draft, and how well Raven and Timpson develop next season.
There aren't a lot of great options at guard in free agency. They are realistically looking at players like Betnijah Laney-Hamilton, Kennedy Burke, Maya Caldwell, Diamond Miller, etc. Those are solid players, but not the ones I think most Fever fans are hoping for. It is also worth keeping in mind that there are more teams with more cap space now so even landing one of those may be a challenge.
In the end, considering the options, I still think they should keep Kelsey, but I don't think it would be the end of the world if they lost her.