Hey all,

Due to the...not very good game yesterday, I wanted to do-my-own-research (lmfao I hate this phrase) and dig what exactly has been going wrong for this team the past few games.

I want to preface that, for a few of these losses, I am not concerned. The first three losses were on the back-end of playing 6 games in less than 10 days, so while I do not like that we lost those games, I am willing to give some grace to the players because that is an extremely rough schedule. Now, the last two losses? Not good, but at the same time, both the Mystics and Valkyries are good teams. I do think they should have won both of them, but at this point, it is what it is.

First, I want to compare the team's overall stats between their wins and losses so we can see how the team has been performing when they are doing well compared to the past 5 games

	The Dream's 12 Wins	The Dream's Last 5 Losses
PPG	93 points	78 points
Opp. PPG	80 points	86 points
FG %	46%	38%
Opp. FG %	45%	50%
3P FG %	35%	26%
Opp. 3P FG %	32%	44%
Rebounds	37 reb	31 reb
Opp. Rebounds	28 reb	33 reb
Assists	21 ast	17 ast
Opp. Assists	18 ast	20 ast
Turnovers	14 tov	14.5 tov
Opp. Turnovers	17 tov	19 tov

The marked decrease in points scored is definitely, in-part, attributed to us playing the Valkyries in this stretch of games, along with the increase in opponent 3pt-shooting (32% -> 44%). However, the 38% shooting from the field, along with the terrible 26% shooting from 3 in this stretch is alarmingly low. This, in conjunction with the decrease in assists, shows, at least to some extent, that they aren't able to convert on the looks that they are getting.

The most glaring red flag is, as noted above, the breakdown in perimeter defense. When the team is winning, they're able to mitigate the opponent getting good looks from three. It's fair, to some extent, to chalk this up to some insane heaters on our opponent's part (Awa Fam is the most notable one), but if the team is to turn this around, they need to make sure that they are on top of their rotations/switches. There were some notable gaffes in yesterday's game from Allisha Gray that were just completely unacceptable for a player of her level. The increase in opponent 3pt %, along with worse rebounding (+9 margins in our wins -> -2 in the past 5 games), shows that we're allowing more second-chance points and more possessions for our opponents, which is not good!

Who's Responsible?

I know everybody is wanting to blame Karl, but I just...don't think it's really his fault? When we get into more player-specific data, I think it's clear that this is far more a player problem than a coaching problem. I know there are more calls for Okot/Angel on the floor, but the On-off numbers don't reflect that they are a beneficial combination...yet. Maybe they need more time to gel properly, but at the moment it just isn't working.

Lineups	Minutes	Off. Rating	Def. Rating	Net Rating
Reese On/Okot Off	584 minutes	112.1 rat.	105.2 rat.	+6.9
Okot On/Reese Off	136 minutes	108.1 rat.	108.0 rat.	+0.1
Reese & Okot On	57 minutes	80.5 rat	100.9 rat.	-20.3
Reese & Okot Off	53 minutes	136.2 rat.	118.7 rat.	+17.5

The main culprit of the current drought, and I truly hate saying this because she is one of my favorite players, is Allisha Gray. She has truly been terrible the past 5 games. I don't know what's going on behind the scenes and I'm not going to speculate, but she has been a net-negative on the team during this losing stretch.

Adjusted for 40 mins, with her on the court, the team has:

• The least amount of points scored (74.7 ppg)
• The worst +/- at -15.3
• The least amount of assists
• The worst 3-point shooting among the starters

While off-the-court, adjusted for 40 minutes, the team has undoubtedly been better during this stretch.

Adj. 40 min, off-court numbers for the Dream

Now, some may point to in this graphic that Rhyne's +/- is even 'better' than AG's during this stretch, but I also need to point to their per-game stats during this stretch because the disparity is jarring.

	Allisha Gray	Rhyne Howard
PPG	15.2 ppg	18.2 ppg
FG %	35%	39%
3P FG %	16% (4/26)	32% (15/47)
FT %	61% (22/36)	93% (14/15)
True Shooting %	43.8%	53.2%
Rebounds	2.8 reb	3.4 reb
Assists	2.0 ast	2.8 ast
Turnovers	2.0 to	1.2 to

The production from AG is simply not good enough for us to win games, especially with our current roster deficiencies in the post. I love Borlase and Paopao, and they are valuable pieces off the bench, but they aren't 1-for-1 substitutes for AG's size and defense.

I should also note, AG's defense over this stretch has been bad. There aren't really any statistics I can point to for this, it's predominantly eye test, but her rotations, switching, etc. have been all over the place. Considering this is somebody who, at their best, could be in the All-Defense conversation, it's been jarring watching her play.

I'm not blaming Allisha Gray solely for these losses, but I think it should be noted that the main benefit of her being on this team is that she is the steady-hand, the player you can reliable expect to put up 15-20 ppg with high-efficiency. Her defense brought a level of stability to this team night-in-night-out. She was in the top 5 for MVP voting last season gosh darnit.

Some may say, "Well Karl should bench her", which is ridiculous and is a high-school basketball team level mentality. She is getting paid the max, and, again, this is all hindsight. A) How would anybody know that Lish's slump would last this long, and B) You can't bench your best player, you have to simply let her play through it (assuming it's not due to health issues). There's no reason to create discontent during the regular season. As a coach, you have to show that you have confidence in your players. They're pros, they know they are not playing up to their expected level.

I could get into what else has been causing this slump: Naz's injuries and minute restrictions, the bench production, but ngl I am weary of the histrionics in Dream circles. Losing isn't fun, but calling for people's jobs is bizarre and short-sighted, especially considering Karl is literally the best coach this team has ever had.

I think the complaints about the starters minutes are fair, but I think are mostly just backseat-coaching that relies on hindsight and ignoring many if the clear issues our bench players have (Paopao has been mid AF, Madina is good, but she's not that good--do any of you watch her play defense?? It's bad!!!!) We could discuss then the job our GM did during the offseason, but then we get into the ways the CBA affected our teambuilding and how we're an extremely top-heavy roster etc.etc. and I doubt many of you could have done better, and again, this all relies on us having hindsight that GM Padover didn't have; I'm sure he'd say he'd do things differently to.

Anyways, cheers, hope some of you found this useful xoxo

Hey all,

Since the Dream are currently in the middle of one of their mini-breaks, I wanted to make a post examining how the team is performing statistically in order to see how much of what we all view on the court actually matches up with what the data is telling us. It's always useful to see if how we feel the team is doing is actually, well, true!

(All data is taken from herhoopstats.com, acrossthetimeline.com, and the official WNBA website)

In this post, I'm just looking at the team in its totality, and if people like this/are interested in more, I'll make another in the near-future where I examine players individually.

~~~

The Dream currently sit at 12-7, which is, funnily enough, exactly where the team sat last year after 19 games.

In the 2026 offseason we lost:

• Brittney Griner (21 mpg, averaged 9/5/1)
• Maya Caldwell (19 mpg, averaged 5/3/2)
• Nia Coffey (10 mpg, averaged 4/2.5/1)
• Shatori Walker-Kimbrough (9 mpg, averaged 2/1/0.5)
• 2025 draft pick Taylor Thierry (2 mpg).

We have also been without Brionna Jones (27 mpg, averaged 13/7/2) to start the season.

We brought in:

• Angel Reese (30 mpg, 15/12/3)
• 2024 draft and stash Isobel Borlase (12 mpg, 4.5/1/1)
• 2026 draft pick Madina Okot (10 mpg, 5.5/4/0)
• 2026 draft pick Indya Nivar (3 mpg)
• Off waivers, Aaliyah Nye (2 mpg)

And currently on developmental contracts:

• Former Dallas Wing - Amy Okonkwo
• Former NY Liberty & MIN Lynx - Jaylyn Sherrod

Statistical Overview

	2026 Dream	2025 Dream (over 44 games)
Points-per-game	88.3 points (7th/15)	84.4 points (5th/13)
Points-allowed-per-game	83.8 points (4th/15)	76.8 points (3rd/13)
Margin of victory	4.5 points (3rd/15)	7.6 points (2nd/13)
Offensive rating (points per 100 possessions)	105.4 (7th/15)	105.9 (2nd/13)
Defensive rating	101.4 (4th/15	96.3 (2nd/13)
Net rating	4.0 (5th/15)	9.6 (2nd/13)

I also want to highlight a few places where the team has changed significantly from 2025 -> 2026

	2026 Dream	2025 Dream
Offensive rebounds	10.7 ORB (1st/15)	8.9 ORB (3rd/13)
Off. Rebound Rate	31% (1st/15)	27% (3rd/13)
Defensive rebounds	23.9 DRB (11th/15)	27.7 DRB (1st/15)
Def. Rebound Rate	79.5% (1st/15)	79.8% (1st/13)
Assists	19.7 AST (10th/15)	21.4 AST (3rd/13)
Turnovers	13.6 TOV (6th/15)	12.5 TOV (2nd/15)
Steals	9.4 STL (1st/15)	6.8 STL (11th/15)
Blocks	2.8 BLK (15th/15)	4.5 BLK (4th/15)

When I was first gathering this data, I was confounded by the Dream being 11th in total defensive rebounds. How could we be such a monster on the O-Boards and then be lacking in defensive rebounds?

Well, it turns out that we are still the best defensive rebounding team in the league. I am not sure why the total number of DRB shakes out to where we are 11th in total, but it is comforting to see that when given the opportunity, we convert them.

We also see the Angel Reese-effect on our offensive-rebounds, with a 4% increase in offensive-rebound-rate and an additional 2 ORB a game. Considering this team was already elite in this category, it's amazing to see how much Angel has improved it further, especially considering this is without Bri Jones (3 ORB per game in 2025) and Brittney Griner (1 ORB per game).

I also wanted to highlight here how our steals and blocks have changed season-over-season. My own personal belief is that I don't care about how many stocks (steals and blocks) we generate as long as our overall defensive metrics are good, and I find this to be represented in how our defense has remained elite year-over-year while our number of steals and blocks has changed dramatically.

Our 2025 defense was interesting because we were elite (1st in opponent points-per-attempt, a 2nd in EFG %) without forcing turnovers (12th in opponent turnover rate). This just means that while opponents were able to take their shots, we were able to force them into bad and inefficient looks.

This year, our defense remains very good, but we're getting there in a different way--forcing turnovers. I would attribute this philosophy shift to different personnel, as losing two of our best rim protectors (and us moving Angel to center) means that we have to play in a different way. The decrease in blocks-per-game can similarly be attributed to losing BG and Bri (combined 2 BPG). I would expect us to combine these two philosophies when Bri returns. Angel is still best when we're forcing turnovers and playing in transition, but pairing her with a true rim-protector will mean that we can go back to our more traditional, 2025 defense.

It's important here to state that the way our defense is structured, we are willing to let teams have more open midrange looks because they are still lower-percentage shots. It is statistically preferable to make A'ja Wilson take a midrange shot that has a 40-50% chance of going in than let her get to the paint where her shooting percentage increases to 65-75%. It's just math.

However, one issue is that our paint-defense and three-point-defense has declined significantly year-over-year.

	2026 Dream	2025 Dream
Opponent Restricted Area FG %	65% (11th/15)	58% (1st/13)
Opponent Midrange FG %	39% (10th/13)	40% (14th/15)
Opponent 3-Point FG %	36.5% (14th/15)	32.1% (5th/13)

It's difficult to tell how much of this is early-season statistical noise and how much is part of a long-term trend. There are going to be some trade-offs with how our scheme has shifted-year-over-year, and the increase in generated turnovers does offset some of the improved opponent-shooting.

Personally, I'm willing to wait-and-see how things change once we have everybody playing in their proper position. I just wanted to make note of it because it is worth monitoring as the season progresses.

Team Shooting

/tangent

Are the Atlanta Dream actually a "live-and-die-by-the-three" team? Everyone says it, but it's actually not entirely true this year. Simplifying Karl's system to "threes-and-layups" is not necessarily true. I would instead characterize it as "take high-quality shots", along with "if you're open, shoot".

This is why Angel Reese has to take threes. If they have to guard Angel at the three-point-line, then they aren't sagging into the paint, and if the defense isn't sagging into the paint, that frees up space for players to either post-up or cut to the basket. It's as simple as that.

"Why don't we take midrange shots?"--because they aren't efficient. Again, it's just math. Shots taken in the restricted area have a 60-70% chance of going in. The best midrange shooters average about 40-45%, but the worst ones average closer to 30-35%.. The scheme seeks to cut out the worst shots (contested midrange pull-ups) in favor of the best (passing to somebody cutting to the basket for a layup). The times Dream players do shoot from midrange, it's often either because our best shooters are taking them (Allisha Gray, Rhyne, Paopao) or a player is left wide open and it becomes a high-percentage look.

/tangent over, onto the data

	2026 Dream	2025 Dream
Restricted Area FGA	549 attempts (1st/15)	932 attempts (4th/13)
Restricted Area FG %	59% (13th/15)	62% (8th/13)
Paint outside Restricted Area FGA	232 attempts (13th/15)	567 attempts (12th/13)
Paint outside Restricted Area FG %	37% (13th/15)	42% (7th/13)
Midrange FGA	52 attempts (15th/15)	237 attempts (12th/13)
Midrange FG %	17% (15th/15)	38% (8th/13)
3-point FGA	501 attempts (7th/15)	1,248 attempts (2nd/13)
3-point FG %	33% (10th/15)	34% (7th/13)

As we can see, the Dream so far have been shooting less efficiently so far this season, along with taking less threes compared to the rest of the league so far. There is a decent decrease in efficiency, which I do think can be attributed to Angel (not shade!) along with, again, no Bri/BG who are more efficient post-players. It's also worth-noting our scheme has shifted away from being post-up focused last year (which were highly efficient shots for us) to including more PnR which better accommodates Angel's skillset. It would be interesting to examine this data without some of the very...bad, inefficient outlier games that both Angel and Rhy have had, which I may do in the future.

The midrange inefficiencies are of note, but I'm not worried about with how low-volume it has been so far this year.

Conclusion

Well...I actually don't have anything to say here. I more-so wanted to gather it all so you can gather whatever takeaways you want to! I don't want to tell you what to believe, that's your job.

So far this season, while it's been a bit of a mixed bag, it's also not anything worth sounding the alarm over. A lot of teams are struggling, so while we have been inconsistent, everyone else has been to (except for the Lynx and the Aces). We're solidly a top 5 team and contending this year, and I'm just having fun because this team has never been this good before 😄 but also we better step it up because I can't take more losing.

And again, I'm totally down to do individual player deep-dives, lineup deep-dives, etc. and really go more in-depth if that's what people want. Cheers!

prefacing before people nitpick: I'm happy all these players are getting paid. However, we can still recognize that paying some players may be a better idea than paying others...

Also, we all know players can (and have) turned it around before the season ends, but at the moment, I want to know what contracts we think are sticking out like a sore thumb, where we go, "Ehhhh, that was not the most optimal way we could have spent our money."

Some I've been side-eyeing*:

For performance reasons

• Mo Billings - 2yr/$800k per
• Jewell Loyd - 3yr/$800k per
• Ariel Atkins - 3yr/$1.15m per
• Kahleah Copper - 2yr/max

Because they're expensive relative to their scoring output

• Lexie Hull - 2yr/$800k per

(Yes, Lexie is a defensive specialist, but she needs to pick up her offensive game, and a lot of guards who play similar roles to her got paid in the $400-600k range, which is where she belongs)

The Connecticut Sun

• Kennedy Burke - 1yr/$1m
• Olivia Nelson-Ododa - 2yr/$725k per

(I know the Sun had to spend their money somewhere but I still laugh whenever I see these contract and then their 5-10 ppg)

For age reasons

• Chelsea Gray - 3yr/max (she will be 37 by the end of her contract)
• Alyssa Thomas - 3yr/max (she will be 37 at the end of her contract)
• Dearica Hamby - 3yr/max-ish (she will be almost 36)
• Erica Wheeler - 2yr/$625k per (36 next year)

*I'm leaving off anybody that's been playing through injury because I just don't think it's fair (Alanna Smith, Temi Fagbenle, Ezi Magbegor)

On the other hand, some contracts that are looking like STEALS

• Natasha Mack - 2yr/$300k per (I assume she'll get a raise in the offseason)
• Nia Coffey - 2yr/$350k per
• Nalyssa Smith - 2yr/$450k per

Just thought it would be fun to do a little exercise before the first pre-season game and see what the final roster of this team may look like. Outside of the top 8-10 spots, there are a lot of possibilities for the direction this team may go in, especially considering they've decided to go with predominantly untested rookies and international players that have not played heavy minutes in the W.

Roster Locks

It's clear that Atlanta has decided for the next 2-3 years, the following players are who they are building around

Core Six

#1 - Jordin Canada (PG)

#2 - Allisha Gray (SG)

#3 - Rhyne Howard (CG/Wing)

#4-6 - Angel Reese, Bri Jones, Naz Hillmon (PF/C)

In terms of bench players that are locks, I feel that with the department of Maya, SWK, and Nia Coffey, we can solidly say that two players are definitely going to make the roster.

Bench Locks

#7 Te-hina Paopao (CG)

#8 Madina-Okot (C)

At this point, we have six spots remaining, including four main roster spots and two development spots.

Signs are pointing to Yes

The following are primarily based on who I've seen CKS (Coach Karl Smesko) speak positively on on social media, and who make sense from a development point of view

Developmental Main Roster

#9 Indya Nivar (PG) - On multiple occasions on the Dream's social media I've seen CKS speak positively about Indya, especially her defense. I would expect her to be a pseudo-Maya Caldwell this year, albeit not playing as many minutes. She'll probably be PG #3 (behind Jordin and a combo of Paopao/Rhy) and if her defense is at a W level, she may get a few minutes a game

#10 Taylor Thierry (Wing) - Taylor played abroad in the off-season in the Czech Republic, and I'm projecting her to give Coffey/SWK minutes this year (5-10 a game). She fills an important role on this team (Wing depth) with her size, and I expect her shooting to progress some. Considering she's on a cost-controlled rookie contract, I expect her to stay.

#11 Isobel Borlase (SG) - Borlase, similarly to Thierry, fills an important depth need by virtue of being a guard with size. I love Paopao, but she is limited not only athletically but also by being 5'9". I have no idea what to expect with Borlase and the quality of defense she brings, but I would expect, with her being on a cost-controlled rookie contract AND with the potential being there (WNBL MVP), that the team will not cut her this season. At worst, I expect her to get a developmental slot, but considering how open the last few roster slots are, I think she makes the main roster.

Who F-ing Knows

Spots 12-14 are completely up in the air, and I expect the pre-season games to give us clarity as to who makes these final three spots. I'm not going to even guess specifically who goes on the developmental roster, I'm just going to name my three favorites.

IDK, Your guess is as good as mine

#12 Sacha Washington (PF) - I may be going crazy but I am 99% sure I saw clips of Sacha shooting (and making) threes posted to the Dream's Instagram stories. If I'm correct, that is a big deal, because she didn't attempt any in college. She would fit an important role while Bri is out with injury by providing post-depth, and IDK, I just like the vibes coming from her.

#13 Sika Kone (PF/C) - They picked her up off waivers last season and I don't think they are going to give up on her yet. She's a Big that can make 3s--I don't really have any further justification for her being on the roster. She played internationally in Spain in the off-season and put up decent enough stats (15PTS/40% from 3 on good volume/9 REB).

#14 I have no idea. Maite Cazorla (PG) would surprise me because I think they have good point guard depth right now. However, if JC gets injured for some reason, it would not surprise me if they brought her back on a hardship contract. Bella Fontleroy (Wing) and Laila Phelia (Wing) are interesting options to me. They're just different flavors of Wing, with Phelia being the better shooter. If I'm to read into the social media tea leaves (which are unproven and inaccurate), I have seen quite a lot of Bella on the Dream's Instagram stories and reels. Stephanie Jones (SF?) would surprise me, and I kind of just think that they brought her in as a favor for Bri, and that she is just a training camp body! Holly Winterburn (PG) similarly seems like she's just here to run drills. I expect them to suspend Kejia Ran's (SG) contract and let her develop overseas for another year or two, and then bring her back once they think she's ready.

Anyways, that's all! I may make an update if we see anything interesting on Wednesday.

Thanks for reading all this xoxo