u/333Nereus

Holy crap.. someone really has a hate-on for this company.

Taiwanese authorities expanded an investigation into the illegal smuggling of advanced AI chips to China by raiding multiple Super Micro Computer Inc. ($SMCI) office locations in Taiwan. The raids are part of a broader crackdown on document forgery and fraudulent declarations aimed at bypassing strict U.S. and Taiwanese trade restrictions.

The expanded probe and raids trace back to a massive U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) indictment unsealed in March 2026. Federal prosecutors charged three individuals associated with Super Micro—including co-founder Yih-Shyan "Wally" Liaw—with conspiring to illegally route and divert an estimated $2.5 billion in Nvidia-powered AI servers to China.

MULTIPLE sources.

https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/taiwan-authorities-raid-super-micro-offices-in-expanding-chip-exports-probe-4766004

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-29/super-micro-office-raided-as-taiwan-expands-chip-smuggling-probe

https://beincrypto.com/taiwan-raid-super-micro-office-smci-shares/

many more..

EDIT: many claiming these were the raids that actually took place on May 21st this year. That was not how this 'new' news was being framed - they did say the raids were *this morning*. This story crashed the SP about 10% immediately on release. IF no raids actually took place this morning, then whoever released it should be facing jail time imo - deliberate manipulation.

Saw this on Yahoo (of all places) a little while ago. Somewhat persuasive argument. Have a read and pick it apart. Sorry if this has already been posted here somewhere.

p.s. I did NOT write this, so don't shoot the messenger please.

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Why SpaceX/xAI Should Acquire SMCI at 300% Premium

The Strategic Case

• They Built Colossus Together

SMCI's CEO Charles Liang and xAI jointly completed the original Colossus datacenter in 122 days, (Ainvest) setting a world record for GPU cluster deployment. This isn't a cold acquisition of a stranger — it's formalizing a proven operational partnership. The integration risk is dramatically lower than a typical M&A because the engineering teams, deployment methodologies, and supply chain relationships already exist.

• The Scale of Dependency Justifies Ownership

Colossus is expanding to 2 gigawatts with 555,000 NVIDIA GPUs for approximately $18 billion — the world's largest single-site AI training installation, (Introl) with plans to eventually house at least one million GPUs. (Interesting Engineering) At that scale, having a single external vendor as your primary server supplier is a strategic vulnerability. A supply disruption, a competing hyperscaler locking up SMCI capacity, or a pricing dispute could derail a $30B+ capex program. Ownership eliminates all three risks permanently.

• xAI Is Now Inside SpaceX — The Synergy Is Direct

SpaceX acquired xAI in February 2026, bringing with it the Colossus data centers, Grok AI models, and X. (CNBC) This means SPCX now directly owns and operates the infrastructure that SMCI supplies into. Every dollar of server margin currently flowing to SMCI's P&L is margin that SPCX is paying to an outside party on its own capex. Internalizing that is the simplest vertical integration argument in tech M&A.

• Speed-to-Deployment Is xAI's Moat

xAI built in six months what took Oracle, Crusoe, and OpenAI 15 months. (Semianalysis) That velocity is the competitive weapon — Grok 3 was trained on Colossus compute before rivals could match the cluster size. SMCI's modular rack architecture is what enables that speed. Owning SMCI means SPCX controls the full hardware stack from server design to rack deployment, eliminating coordination latency with an external vendor on every future buildout.

• Liquid Cooling IP Is Mission-Critical Going Forward

As GPU power density increases with each NVIDIA generation, liquid cooling transitions from nice-to-have to essential. SMCI is the industry leader in direct liquid cooling for GPU servers. Owning that R&D pipeline means SPCX co-engineers thermal architecture for Colossus 3, 4, and beyond rather than retrofitting off-the-shelf solutions.

• Capex Internalization Math

xAI capex represented 76% of total SpaceX group capex in Q1 2026. (Tradingkey) If SMCI earns 8–10% margin on SPCX-destined server orders on a $30B capex roadmap, that's $2.4–3B annually flowing to an external party. At 300% premium the deal costs $79.3B — pure margin capture alone doesn't justify it, but combined with supply chain control, IP ownership, and competitive denial, the strategic value far exceeds the cost.

The Deal Structure

Metric Value

SMCI offer price $122.36/share

Total deal value ~$79.3B

New SPCX shares issued ~517.5M

SPCX dilution ~3.93%

Exchange ratio 0.7986 SPCX per SMCI share

Under 4% dilution on a $2T market cap to acquire the server manufacturer for your largest business line. The currency mismatch between a $2T conglomerate and a $20B hardware company makes this uniquely executable as all-stock.

Why 300% Specifically

Below 300%: Liang has room to negotiate or wait for a competing bid

At 300% ($122.36): Twice SMCI's 52-week high — board cannot reject it, no cash bidder can match it, shareholder litigation risk is zero

Above 300%: Approaches the $100B headline threshold and near 1:1 exchange ratio optics that attract regulatory and shareholder scrutiny without meaningfully improving deal certainty

300% is the minimum premium that ends the auction on announcement day.

Risks That Remain

Currency risk: SPCX has already traded between $148 and $225 in its first two weeks public. (Investing.com) SMCI shareholders receiving SPCX paper need collar protection — likely a $115–$135 floor/cap structure.

Lockup overhang: 911 million insider SPCX shares unlock in December 2026, (Tradingkey) right around when a deal announced today would close. The overhang creates downward pressure on the very currency being used to pay SMCI holders.

FCF burn: SpaceX is burning -$19.78B in free cash flow annually. (StockAnalysis) Adding $79.3B in stock-based acquisition cost to a loss-making entity requires the market to continue pricing SPCX on optionality rather than fundamentals — which it currently does, but that consensus is fragile.

Charles Liang: Even at $122.36 he may prefer independence or demand board seats and operational autonomy as conditions. The deal needs his genuine buy-in, not just fiduciary acceptance.

Bottom Line

The strategic fit is as tight as it gets in M&A — a proven operational partnership, direct supply chain dependency at unprecedented scale, full vertical integration of the highest-capex segment of a $2T company, and a currency so powerful that even a 300% premium costs under 4% dilution. The 300% premium is not generosity; it's the price of certainty in a situation where SPCX cannot afford supply chain risk on a million-GPU buildout.

Without SMCI to justify the market cap of SPCX without meaningful Revenues, SPCX will lose $80B in market cap anyway when it crashes under $135 per share inevitably.

With SMCI, total SPCX Revenue will reach $100B annually sooner and allow that 1,000,000 GPUs goal of Elon Musk to become reality sooner.

The last few Amazon Fresh orders were missing items but were still charged for, I'm guessing it's the delivery people taking what they want? I have been given refunds every time, but I needed some of those items at the time!

I just had another order due to be delivered today, it was "packed and ready", then I got a text saying there was a delay, and now I find the order has been canceled and refunded with no explanation why, and no option to reschedule, but I have to wait 3-5 days to get my money back!!!

And I had DOUBLED the recommended tip too.

So what happens when someone has no more money in the interim? They just have to not eat for a few days until Amazon processes a refund?

WTF Amazon, this is bs. Most of the time items are 'out of stock' anyway. Get it together or stop offering a crap service.

Friday (22nd May) was interesting. Max pain was $31.50, close was $35.58 - a very bullish sign.

Surprisingly, max pain for 29th May is currently $31.00.

I guess some people just want to be punished.

If a deal finally gets done with Iran (but I have my doubts), the entire market will rise. A rising tide lifts all boats, and that combined with last Friday's close *could* be enough to start some of the shorters into a panic covering this week?

It may take longer though - look at what happened with Intel: Big jump from $20 to around $50, and many thought it was stopping there and took their gains (150% gain - can't blame them), the sp hovered around mid to high 40's for a week or three, then BAM! it shot up again to over $110, where it remains today (closed on Friday at $119.84).

Guess what the short % was on Intel when that started? Under 4%.

Now look at what SMCI short % was when this started; about 18% ...and it's STILL sitting around 16%.

A short squeeze here could make the Intel squeeze look like peanuts.

For f sake, do not set stops - that's exactly what shorts have been using to pull SMCI down over and over (well, one of the things). This is the time to be bold.

Thoughts?

Verizon are sending out emails making it sound like you have to switch from the GizmoHub app to the Verizon app to continue service and tracking for the Gizmo watch.

DO NOT DO IT!

Don't even try it! Turns out if you switch over, even just to try it, you can't go back!

Here's the kicker: If you use geofencing to get alerts if/when your kids leave or enter a certain area (which is primary use for most users, and is included on the GizmoHub app), if you switch to Verizon app, you lose that functionality and have to pay $15/month (+taxes & fees) to get it back. AND YOU CAN'T SWITCH BACK TO GIZMO HUB APP.

I contacted Verizon. First their AI told me there was no fee, then when I posted a link to it, AI actually responded to me, "oops, I made a mistake." I'm not kidding!

I then demanded a HUMAN and eventually got to one who confirmed I would need to pay $14.99/month (+tax & fees) to keep using geofencing for Gizmo watch if I used the Verizon app instead of GizmoHub app.

They also said the email I received was 'just a suggestion' and that you don't have to switch to the Verizon app. Absolute bs - it was NOT worded as a suggestion AT ALL, the inference was that you have to switch asap.

They also admitted AI gets info wrong sometimes.

Absolute scam.

So if you have a Gizmo watch for your kids, DO NOT switch over to the Verizon app! Just trying the app is considered consent to switch, and you can't go back!

Assholes. Scammy assholes.

Don't you DARE mess with my kids safety! Absolute scumbag whoever in Verizon decided to do this. That's enough to make me look into T-mobile after near 25 years with Verizon.