u/AdministrativeAd334

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Today is Tuesday, May 19th, and I’m looking at the prediction market for what words CAVA will say on its next earnings call at 1:34PM. This is day 2 of Can Me and my LLM Beat the Market. 

My LLM of choice, Julius (1.2 Max model), looked back at the last several CAVA earnings calls and the pattern is pretty clear. CAVA tends to come back to the same handful of themes: menu innovation, loyalty, digital, new restaurant expansion, AUV, consumer value, and operations at scale. 

The obvious contracts are already expensive. Digital and Loyalty are both sitting around 95¢, and AUV is around 93¢. Those probably hit, but they’re priced like near-certainties. I don’t love paying 93–95 cents for something that can still miss if management just happens to phrase things differently.

First, I prompted Julius to consider the past 4 earnings calls, specifically, the events mentioned in the earnings calls and events that transpired near those earning calls, events transpiring now, and instances of the words in recent earnings calls. Julius then constructed a model and gave EV’s for all the words which have a market on them, digital, loyalty, auv, glazed salmon, expansion, headwind, dining, tariff, sweet potato, spice, automation, acceleration, and same store.

Julius says that the EVs are positive for automation, glazed salmon, and same store. For everything else the “no” contract can be bought. The final recommendation for my $100 is …

Buy YES Automation with about $45
Buy YES Glazed Salmon with about $30
Buy YES Same Store with about $15
Buy NO Tariff with about $10

[ Removed by Reddit on account of violating the content policy. ]

I’ll go first.

A few months ago our ops team found a massive inventory mismatch right before a quarterly review. We were off by almost six figures and nobody could figure out why. Finance blamed operations, operations blamed the warehouse, and suddenly half the company was manually digging through old Excel files and exports trying to find the issue.

The problem ended up being incredibly simple. One supplier had changed their SKU formatting from something like “AB-1042” to “AB1042” a few months earlier. Excel didn’t properly match the products anymore, so every VLOOKUP and join downstream started failing silently.

Instead of flagging an error, the spreadsheets just treated the products as entirely different items. Some inventory got double counted, some disappeared completely, and the reporting slowly drifted further off every week without anyone noticing because the totals still looked mostly right.

After almost two days of losing our minds, I gave up and just uploaded everything into Julius AI and asked it to trace where the inventory discrepancy first appeared. It found the exact supplier change and showed which reports started breaking in approximately two minutes. Everyone immediately started asking me what SQL query solved it, but I didn’t have the heart to tell them I literally just typed the problem into a chat box.

I  make $75k a year as a regional retail logistics analyst. For a long time, my entire work week was anchored by my grueling Monday ritual. I was exporting messy CSVs, wrestling with bad data in Excel, building weekly inventory visualizations, and then having to over explain the trends to managers who couldn't be bothered to open a spreadsheet. It was honestly pretty easy work, just mind-numbing and repetitive.

Then, a few months ago, I started quietly outsourcing the grunt work to Julius.

I used it to clean datasets, merge disparate reports, catch anomalies, and generate polished charts and dashboards. Eventually, I stitched everything into a seamless workflow. Now, I just dump the raw files into the AI, and boardroom-ready visualizations spit out minutes later.

The 5 to 6 hours I used to spend grinding every Monday has shrunk to about 30 minutes.

No one even realizes I’ve automated my job. Management just thinks I’ve undergone some massive professional evolution. My boss recently pulled me aside to tell me how much more "strategic" my reporting has become lately. He said a promotion might be in the works.

In reality, I didn't magically get smarter. I just finally have the time to ask the right questions because I'm no longer drowning in formatting hell on Mondays.

"A jury on May 18 ruled against Elon Musk in his lawsuit against OpenAI, finding the artificial intelligence company not liable to the world's richest person for having allegedly strayed from its original mission to benefit humanity.

In a unanimous verdict, the jury in Oakland, California, federal court said Musk had brought his case too late. The jury deliberated less than two hours."

From USA Today...

Does this case have broader implications for AI as a whole? Most likely not, but what does this case mean for Sam Altman?

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Today is Monday, May 18th, and I’m writing this at 9:03AM about the prediction market for how many posts will Trump make on Truth Social this week. This is day 1 of Can Me and Julius Beat the Market. 

Julius 1.2 Max model is my LLM of choice and it tells me that in the last 3 months, the weekly average number of Trump Truth Social posts has been 132.33 posts per week. In the last 4 weeks it’s been 141.25. The graph from Julius shows the distribution and in a follow-up prompt I asked “can you indicate what major world events happened each week?” and the trend becomes clear that as the Iranian war ramped up so did his number of posts (it’s mostly threats against Iran, ceasefire negotiations, and AI memes).

Processing img q36lwne30y1h1...

I initially assumed that on days where Trump was traveling he’d be too tired and occupied to post on Truth Social, but analysis shows the opposite effect. In the last month for domestic travel days, 25.67 average posts per day were made. For international travel days, defined as travels where at least one endpoint isn’t in the US (so this includes China to China), 25 average posts per day were made. Hmm, no significant difference between intl and domestic travels but there is a statistically significant increase from just normal days.

Julius constructed a model using:

• historical posting distributions
• Trump’s public schedule
• current geopolitical conditions
• the 39-post Sunday start

To conduct Monte Carlo simulations (100,000 runs)

Processing img 7wyvxff30y1h1...

And with my $100, Julius advised me to

• Buy NO 120-139 with about $37.57
• Buy NO 140-159 with about $24.46
• Buy NO 160-179 with about $21.19
• Buy NO 200-220 with about $9.23
• Buy YES >220 with about $6.07
• Buy YES 100-119 with about $1.48

EV is +$9.71 per $100 and probability of profitability is .59.

https://preview.redd.it/o2arbgecux1h1.png?width=2048&format=png&auto=webp&s=58e97be06e7c75d4dd093bca9d98a6ff8437c114

Today is Monday, May 18th, and I’m writing this at 9:03AM about the prediction market for how many posts will Trump make on Truth Social this week. This is day 1 of Can Me and my LLM Beat the Market. 

Julius 1.2 Max model is my LLM of choice and it tells me that in the last 3 months, the weekly average has been 132.33 posts per week. In the last 4 weeks it’s been 141.25. The graph from Julius shows the distribution and in a follow-up prompt I asked “can you indicate what major world events happened each week?” and the trend becomes clear that as the Iranian war ramped up so did his number of posts (it’s mostly threats against Iran, ceasefire negotiations, and AI memes).

I initially assumed that on days where Trump was traveling he’d be too tired and occupied to post on Truth Social, but analysis shows the opposite effect. In the last month for domestic travel days, 25.67 average posts per day were made. For international travel days, defined as travels where at least one endpoint isn’t in the US (so this includes China to China), 25 average posts per day were made. Hmm, no significant difference between intl and domestic travels but there is a statistically significant increase from just normal days.

The model used:

• historical posting distributions
• Trump’s public schedule
• current geopolitical conditions
• the 39-post Sunday start
• Monte Carlo simulation (100,000 runs)

Processing img 1rcb7hecux1h1...

And with my $100, it advised me to

• Buy NO 120-139 with about $37.57
• Buy NO 140-159 with about $24.46
• Buy NO 160-179 with about $21.19
• Buy NO 200-220 with about $9.23
• Buy YES >220 with about $6.07
• Buy YES 100-119 with about $1.48

EV is +$9.71 per $100 and probability of profitability is .59.

Today is Monday, May 18th, and I’m writing this at 9:03AM about the prediction market for how many posts will Trump make on Truth Social this week. This is day 1 of Can Me and my LLM Beat the Market. 

https://preview.redd.it/o5q6zi63tx1h1.png?width=2048&format=png&auto=webp&s=a486043e8cf7998a22b9a10406ac98f94b25fbd9

Julius 1.2 Max model is my LLM of choice and it tells me that in the last 3 months, the weekly average number of posts from Trump on Truth Social has been 132.33 posts per week. In the last 4 weeks it’s been 141.25. The graph from Julius shows the distribution and in a follow-up prompt I asked “can you indicate what major world events happened each week?” and the trend becomes clear that as the Iranian war ramped up so did his number of posts (it’s mostly threats against Iran, ceasefire negotiations, and AI memes).

I initially assumed that on days where Trump was traveling he’d be too tired and occupied to post on Truth Social, but analysis shows the opposite effect. In the last month for domestic travel days, 25.67 average posts per day were made. For international travel days, defined as travels where at least one endpoint isn’t in the US (so this includes China to China), 25 average posts per day were made. Hmm, no significant difference between intl and domestic travels but there is a statistically significant increase from just normal days.

Julius constructed a model that used:

• historical posting distributions
• Trump’s public schedule
• current geopolitical conditions
• the 39-post Sunday start

to run Monte Carlo simulations (100,000 runs)

https://preview.redd.it/hta1m010tx1h1.png?width=1979&format=png&auto=webp&s=8d2b78c62b2380809aa5ad2bce9461815a81021a

And with my $100, Julius advised me to

• Buy NO 120-139 with about $37.57
• Buy NO 140-159 with about $24.46
• Buy NO 160-179 with about $21.19
• Buy NO 200-220 with about $9.23
• Buy YES >220 with about $6.07
• Buy YES 100-119 with about $1.48

EV is +$9.71 per $100 and probability of profitability is .59.