How bad is the memory shortage? Finance guy asking those who actually know what they’re talking about
I have a finance background and manage a meaningful amount of my own capital. I like to sanity-check with people who actually understand the underlying technology, rather than rely purely on financial analyst reports (who issue many verdicts with shallow understanding).
Current expectations seem to be for tight DRAM/HBM supply through 2026, with some easing in 2027 as new capacity comes online.
For those closer to HPC, datacenters, procurement, or memory hardware: how severe are the shortages really? and does meaningful easing in 2027 sound realistic?
Or could AI/HPC demand, HBM requirements, packaging constraints, etc. keep supply tighter for longer?
I’m seeing reports of more memory contracts becoming non-cancellable and longer-term as buyers try to secure supply. That doesn’t sound like something you’d normally do if the shortage were expected to last only another 12–18 months.
This is purely for my own learning, I’m not publishing or quoting anyone...