u/BenjaminScott09

What stock today feels like RKLB at $5 or PLTR before everyone suddenly “always believed”?
▲ 31 r/smallstreetbets+1 crossposts

What stock today feels like RKLB at $5 or PLTR before everyone suddenly “always believed”?

Everyone says they saw the winners coming after the chart goes vertical.

PLTR was “too expensive.”
RKLB was “too speculative.”
ASTS was “too risky.”
NVDA was “priced in.”
AMD was “dead money.”

Then they all ran.

So what is the current version of that? Not necessarily the same sector, but the same type of setup: big market, strong narrative, real catalyst path, and still enough doubt that most people are not comfortable buying it.

My current list is something like:

  • NBIS for AI cloud / neocloud exposure
  • LUNR for space infrastructure
  • KTOS for defense drones
  • SOUN for voice AI
  • NRED as a tiny copper exploration lottery ticket
  • NBTX for high-risk biotech upside

Not saying any of these are guaranteed. Most high-upside names are messy. But the best entries usually look uncomfortable before they look obvious.

What is your highest-conviction uncomfortable pick?

u/BenjaminScott09 — 1 day ago
▲ 2 r/MetalsOnReddit+1 crossposts

Defense Demand Is Small, But It Changes The Copper Conversation

The bear case on defense copper demand is obvious.

It is not big enough to drive the whole global copper market by itself.

True.

But that misses the point.

Defense demand does not need to be the largest copper buyer to matter. It only needs to be strategic, less price-sensitive, and hard to substitute in a market that is already tightening.

S&P projects defense copper demand could nearly triple by 2040. It also says equipment and infrastructure are expected to rise from 33% of defense spending in 2025 to 42% by 2040.

That matters because modern defense equipment is more electronic, more connected, and more power-intensive than older systems.

When copper is tied to defense readiness, grid security, AI infrastructure, and industrial policy, governments are less likely to treat it like a normal cyclical commodity.

That is the shift.

reddit.com
u/BenjaminScott09 — 2 days ago

The Copper Gap Behind The AI Buildout

The U.S. is trying to build one of the biggest AI infrastructure waves in history, but the copper supply chain looks much weaker than the demand story.

A copper supply-chain report I read argues that the U.S. has a refining bottleneck. The country mines copper, especially in places like Arizona, but it has very limited domestic smelting capacity.

That creates a weird situation. The U.S. can mine copper concentrate, but still depends heavily on imports of refined copper products.

If AI data centers, grid upgrades, defense systems and electrification all need copper at the same time, that bottleneck becomes more important.

This is where I think the copper exploration space gets more attention. The market may start caring more about future supply, jurisdiction and domestic or allied-source projects.

OTC: NREDF is still early-stage, but its Wilmac copper-gold project in British Columbia fits into that broader future-supply discussion.

reddit.com
u/BenjaminScott09 — 3 days ago

My Top 3 Copper Names To Watch While Copper Is Near Record Highs

Copper trading around record territory has me looking at the sector in layers instead of treating every copper name the same.

My first watch is Freeport-McMoRan, FCX. It is one of the cleanest large-cap copper plays, with major exposure to the U.S., South America, and Grasberg in Indonesia. The upside is scale and leverage to copper prices. The risk is that Grasberg recovery timing still matters a lot, per recent company updates.

Second is Hudbay Minerals, HBM. I like it as a mid-tier producer with assets in the Americas and direct BC exposure through Copper Mountain. Hudbay has guided to stronger average copper production over the next few years, per company guidance, which makes it interesting if copper stays strong.

Third is NovaRed Mining, CSE: NRED and OTCQB: NREDF. This is the high-risk explorer on the list, not a producer. Its Wilmac copper-gold project is near Copper Mountain, and recent updates are more about target generation than cash flow.

NFA. If you were building a copper watchlist, would you rather start with producers or explorers?

reddit.com
u/BenjaminScott09 — 7 days ago

Copper gets most of the attention when people talk about electrification, but silver is starting to look like the more volatile cousin in the same trade.

Copper is the grid metal. It sits inside transmission, substations, transformers, switchgear, EV charging, data center power systems, industrial electrification, and renewable buildout.

Silver is different. It is smaller, more financialized, and more explosive when the physical market tightens. It also touches solar, electronics, investment demand, and industrial use.

That combination is interesting because both metals are tied to the same macro direction: more electricity, more infrastructure, more hardware, more power movement.

But the market structure is different.

Copper has the bigger industrial base and the clearer long-term supply problem. S&P Global sees copper demand rising about 50% by 2040. Silver has a much smaller market and has been dealing with repeated deficits. Reuters recently reported that the silver market is expected to face another deficit in 2026, even with some industrial demand softening.

That is what makes the metals space more interesting than just "AI chips."

If AI, grids, defense, EV charging, and electrification keep scaling, the bottlenecks may show up in physical materials before they show up in software. Copper handles the heavy electrical infrastructure. Silver sits closer to high-value electronics and solar demand.

The risk is obvious: both are cyclical, both can correct hard, and substitution becomes more serious when prices spike.

But I do not think this is just a one-metal story anymore.

Copper may be the slow supply-chain bottleneck. Silver may be the high-beta shortage trade.

Are you treating copper and silver as separate trades, or as two sides of the same electrification cycle?

reddit.com
u/BenjaminScott09 — 13 days ago

Copper is doing something the headlines do not fully explain.

Even with talk about surplus and high inventories, the price is still sitting around $5.93 to $5.95 per lb and holding close to multi week highs.

That matters because price tends to reflect expectations, not just current conditions.

Short term, there are mixed signals. Inventories are elevated and the ICSG is calling for a small surplus. At the same time, copper is still up roughly 27 to 29 percent year over year and not breaking down.

That usually means the market is looking past near term noise.

The bigger drivers are still in place. Electrification, data centers, and grid expansion are long cycle demand sources, while supply remains slow to respond. Even recent pullbacks have held well above prior ranges, which suggests a higher base level for the metal.

That context feeds directly into exploration.

NovaRed Mining (NRED) is not trading spot copper. It is positioned as future supply. The company controls more than 16000 hectares in a proven BC copper belt and is moving toward drill targets with its 2026 geophysics program.

When copper holds near highs despite mixed data, it tends to keep attention on the pipeline of future supply.

NFA.

u/BenjaminScott09 — 16 days ago

The U.S. battery storage market just had a record year: 18.9 GW installed in 2025, up 52% from 2024. That alone is a major signal. But the bigger number is the forecast: around 500 GWh of U.S. storage additions expected from 2026 to 2031.

That is the grid preparing for a different kind of demand curve. AI data centers, electrification, and renewable growth all create load patterns that are harder to manage with old infrastructure. Storage gives the system flexibility. It can shave peaks, provide backup, reduce demand charges, and optimize when power is pulled from solar, the grid, or backup generation.

This is where companies with battery-backed microgrid models become more interesting. They are not just selling power. They are selling control over when and how power is used.

That is the lane NХХT is trying to build into. Its PPAs combine solar, batteries, backup generation, and intelligent energy management. As customers face higher power demand and reliability concerns, that full stack becomes easier to understand.

The battery boom is not just about EVs anymore. It is about keeping the grid stable while demand keeps rising.

Not advice.

u/BenjaminScott09 — 17 days ago
▲ 2 r/MetalsOnReddit+1 crossposts

AI demand is starting to show up in copper numbers

S&P Global projects total copper demand rising from about 28 million tonnes in 2025 to around 42 million tonnes by 2040. That is roughly a 50 percent increase, driven in part by data centers, electrification, and digital infrastructure.

The data center piece is growing fast. Copper demand tied to data centers alone is expected to increase from about 1.1 million tonnes in 2025 to around 2.5 million tonnes by 2040. AI training demand could make up about 58 percent of that segment by 2030.

The constraint is not just demand. Power is becoming a bottleneck. Data centers could reach about 14 percent of total U.S. electricity consumption by 2030, which forces expansion of transmission infrastructure where copper is a core input.

That combination changes how the supply pipeline gets viewed.

Projects that are still early stage today are part of the supply needed a decade from now. Mines take years to develop, so attention shifts earlier in the cycle.

NovaRed Mining (NRED) sits in that early stage. The company controls more than 16000 hectares in the Quesnel porphyry belt, about 10 km from Copper Mountain, and is moving through about 80 line kilometres of geophysics to define drill targets.

They are positioning within a supply chain that is being pulled forward by AI driven demand.

NFA.

Do you think AI driven copper demand changes when you start looking at exploration names, or does it only matter once projects reach production?

reddit.com
u/BenjaminScott09 — 20 days ago
▲ 11 r/stocks

A lot of people are starting to track institutional flows, insider buying, and filings more closely and that’s definitely useful.

But one thing that often gets overlooked is timing. By the time most of that data becomes visible, the decision has already been made, and in some cases, partially acted on.

That doesn’t make the data useless it just changes how you use it. Instead of treating it as a signal to enter immediately, it’s often better as context. It helps you understand why a stock might be behaving a certain way.

Retail tends to react to what institutions already did. The edge comes from interpreting that behavior, not just copying it.

reddit.com
u/BenjaminScott09 — 20 days ago

A lot of updates say "we expanded the project" without changing much.

This one actually changes the scale.

NovaRed Mining (NRЕD) just added about 4573 hectares through the Trojan Condor corridor, bringing the total Wilmac project size to roughly 16077 hectares.

That is not a small addition. It takes the project from a single large block into something closer to a district footprint.

The structure of the deal also matters. NRЕD can earn a 70 percent interest by paying $250000 in stages, issuing 3 million units, and funding about $8.5M in exploration, including $1.5M in 2026.

That tells you two things. First, the company is committing capital to test the ground. Second, the option is structured around exploration progress, not just holding land.

Location still anchors the story. The expanded project sits in the Quesnel porphyry belt about 10 km from Copper Mountain, a producing operation. That keeps the geological model consistent across the entire land package.

What changes with size is optionality.

Instead of one or two targets, the company now controls a corridor where multiple zones can be tested within the same system. In porphyry exploration, that matters because large deposits often show up as clusters of related anomalies.

NRЕD is still pre drill, with about 80 line kilometres of geophysics planned. The difference now is that the same program can test a wider system.

NFA.

At what point does a land package stop being a single project and start being something the market treats as a district?

u/BenjaminScott09 — 20 days ago
▲ 11 r/stocks

Amazon is a good example of something many people misunderstand.

The stock doesn’t move just because the company is strong. It moves when the market’s expectations about that strength change. That’s why you can see periods where fundamentals improve, but the price goes nowhere because the improvement was already expected.

The opposite is also true. Stocks can rally on “less bad” news because expectations were low. That’s where most of the real movement happens not in absolute performance, but in the gap between expectation and reality.

Once you start thinking this way, price action makes more sense. You’re no longer asking “is this company good?” you’re asking “what does the market think is going to happen next, and how wrong could that be?”

reddit.com
u/BenjaminScott09 — 21 days ago

NRЕD just moved about 35 percent in a single session, and that kind of move usually has more behind it than just one headline.

NovaRed Mining (NRЕD) has already been trending higher over the past months, trading between roughly C$0.05 and C$2.05 over the past year. With a market cap near C$58M before today’s move, it was still sitting in the early stage exploration category.

Moves like this tend to happen when a few factors line up at once.

First, the setup has been building. The company outlined about 80 line kilometres of IP and AMT surveys across its 11504 hectare Wilmac project. That is the stage where targets start to become more defined ahead of drilling.

Second, the location keeps coming back into focus. Wilmac sits about 10 km from Copper Mountain, a producing mine with about 345 million tonnes of reserves at 0.256 percent copper and 1.3 million ounces of gold. That gives the project a clear geological reference point.

Third, the broader copper narrative has been strengthening. Policy discussion around supply security and ongoing consolidation among larger miners has been pushing attention toward early stage assets in known belts.

When those elements combine, price can move before new data is released.

The important part is what comes next. A 35 percent move brings attention, but follow through usually depends on new information, especially anything tied to drill targets or timelines.

NFA.

Do you see moves like this as momentum to trade around, or as early positioning ahead of the next set of results?

u/BenjaminScott09 — 22 days ago

There is a shift happening in mining capital, and it is starting to show up in deal flow.

Large institutions have been moving attention from gold and silver into base metals. JPMorgan has pointed to rotation into copper, and you can see it in how major producers are behaving.

Freeport-McMoRan, one of the largest copper miners, has seen strong share performance tied to copper demand expectations. At the same time, consolidation activity is picking up. Hudbay moved to acquire Arizona Sonoran’s Cactus project, and Boliden has been investing in exploration assets in British Columbia.

This matters because large miners constantly need new projects to replace declining reserves. They rarely explore from scratch. Instead, they acquire or partner with smaller companies once projects reach a certain level of definition.

That creates a pipeline effect.

Early stage projects in proven belts become more relevant when capital is looking for the next set of assets.

NovaRed Mining (NRED) sits in that lane. The company controls 11504 hectares in the Quesnel porphyry belt, about 10 km from Copper Mountain. That places it within trucking distance of existing infrastructure and inside a district where copper systems are already proven.

If a discovery is made, proximity matters. Assets within 10 to 50 km of existing operations are easier to evaluate, integrate, and potentially acquire.

Right now, NRED is still at the stage of defining targets through geophysics, with about 80 line kilometres planned for 2026. There is no resource and no drilling results yet.

The interest comes from positioning. When majors start consolidating and rotating capital, they tend to look in known belts first.

NFA.

u/BenjaminScott09 — 23 days ago