u/Boys4Ever

https://preview.redd.it/x5culigf6d0h1.png?width=932&format=png&auto=webp&s=a3cd1c532c5ce2b7ec262c94d9b39c9cd380b347

Conceptually, there are differences between today’s AI bubble and 1999, but plenty of similarities remain such of buying driven by the belief that the peak is far off and it’s best to jump in before missing out. We’re also seeing big capital spending to build infrastructure in hopes of cashing in later. Now, companies are tacking “AI” onto their names to spark rallies, even when their business such as making shoes which is far removed from AI. Those who lived through 1999 know the pattern. Pundits argue today’s firms have real earnings, but so did many back then, like Cisco, which soared, crashed, stayed profitable for decades, and only recently regained its 1999 highs.

Today we have rising inflation due to energy and fertilizer. Markets tend to stabilize during conflicts, but this one brings with it the expected duration of stress on energy and fertilizer as it might takes months to clear safe passage with no true end in sight.

Main Street is struggling to make ends meet while Wall Street is pouring gas on the fire. As is often the case. Both are not aligned yet eventually the pain on Main Street will drag Wall Street down.

Why being an investor today seems rather risky vs actively trading this wave and the crash most likely to follow. Berkshire has piled cash during prior disconnects between the markets and reality. I wouldn't overlook or discount their current dry powder and prefer to view it as a weathervane for tomorrow.

Hear me out. Since the late 80s the Stoick market has had a constant influx of bids every payroll. This exists because employed contribute to their 401k and company matches. Were this cycle broken because the previous 401k contributors either became unemployed through AI replacement or wages reduces because of AI efficiencies then where would these previously relied on bidders come from?

Markets rely on earnings but also new buyers as it cannot exit purely on higher earnings. Don't see any conversation about this impact from AI.

Hear me out. Since the late 80s the Stoick market has had a constant influx of bids every payroll. This exists because employed contribute to their 401k and company matches. Were this cycle broken because the previous 401k contributors either became unemployed through AI replacement or wages reduces because of AI efficiencies then where would these previously relied on bidders come from?

Markets rely on earnings but also new buyers as it cannot exit purely on higher earnings. Don't see any conversation about this impact from AI.