Hallo an alle,

wir ziehen Ende November nach fast 5 Jahren aus unserer Wohnung aus.

Über Jahre haben wir immer wieder Mängel gemeldet: Schimmel, undichte Fenster, massive Heizungs-/Rohrgeräusche, Probleme mit Küchenboden und Geräten. Vieles war schon beim Einzug vorhanden. Die Vermieterin hat mehrfach angekündigt, Dinge prüfen oder reparieren zu lassen, passiert ist aber kaum etwas. Sie war nie da eigentlich und hat ihre Maklerin/Ansprechpartnerin gefeuert.

Seit September 2025 mindern wir mit Unterstützung des Mietervereins die Miete um 25 %. Die Vermieterin hat die Minderung nie anerkannt und will das jetzt offenbar erst nach unserem Auszug endgültig prüfen.

Gleichzeitig verlangt sie, dass die Wohnung „im vertraglich geschuldeten Zustand“ zurückgegeben wird.

Mein Problem: Wenn wir jetzt alles gründlich reinigen, Schimmel oberflächlich entfernen, Löcher sauber machen usw., sieht die Wohnung wahrscheinlich deutlich besser aus als während der Zeit, in der wir die Miete gemindert haben. Beim Einzug war sie übrigens auch nicht perfekt, Schimmel, schlecht zugespachtelte Löcher und andere Schäden waren schon da. In der Übergabe aber steht nichts, oder keine Ahnung, ehrlich. Weil die Maklerin uns nur das Annahmeprotokoll von den Mietern vor uns zugeschickt hat und nix anderes.

Wie würdet ihr vorgehen?

Vor dem Putzen alles ausführlich fotografieren/filmen? Schimmel sichtbar lassen oder reinigen? Und kann es später problematisch werden, wenn die Wohnung bei der Übergabe deutlich besser aussieht als vorher?

Hat jemand sowas schon erlebt, besonders in Verbindung mit Mietminderung und Kaution? (Ich warte auch auf die Antwort des Mietvereins, aber unser Ansprechpartner da ist natürlich im Urlaub seit 5 Wochen und na ja)

Keep getting "Enable JavaScript to run this website"

Can even open basic stuff.

Everything slow.

Tried downloading previous release. Doesn't fix it.

Brave Beta works fine, but need to migrate everything from base to it. I guess.

Other browsers work as well.

Any ideas?

TL;DR / My Take:
This shit went from ~$25 to sub-$4 in days because Avis yeeted their big contract. The market priced it like bankruptcy. But Government Solutions is a moaty cash printer, valuation is stupid cheap (P/E ~5x, 0.65x sales), and cost cuts + remaining business could stabilise this. Asymmetric upside if they execute – could 2-3x+ on recovery. High risk tho (debt, execution, more churn). Speculative buy at these levels for degens with iron hands. Not financial advice, DYOR, you could lose everything. Position size small.

The Business (Smart Mobility Tech, Not Just Cameras)

Verra Mobility does three things:

• Government Solutions (~44% revenue, the golden child): Red light/speed/school bus cameras, photo enforcement for cities/schools. Recurring contracts, high barriers, "smart cities" tailwinds. Sticky as fuck – cities need this for safety/revenue. NYC DOT is big, but they renewed at lower margins.
• Commercial Services (the one that got fucked): Toll/violation management for rental cars (Avis, Hertz, Enterprise), fleets. Travel-dependent.
• Parking Solutions (smaller): SaaS + hardware for parking garages (T2 acquisition).

Grew via M&A + organic. Solid platform, but customer concentration risk is real (top clients = big chunk).

The Avis Massacre (May 2026)

• Avis terminates major contract effective Sept 2026.
• Hit: ~$135-145M annualised Commercial revenue loss, $120-125M segment profit hit before mitigations.
• 10% of total revenue is gone.
• Revised 2026 guidance: Revenue $985-995M, Adj EBITDA $380-385M, Adj EPS $1.19-1.25, FCF $140-150M.

Stock dropped 70-75%+ in panic. Analysts slashed targets left and right (many to the $4-9 range). The CEO bounced, interim in place. Classic overreaction bloodbath.

Pre-crash context: Was trading higher on growth, but NYC renewal already pressured margins. Q1 2026 was okay-ish (revenue flat ~$224M, Adj EBITDA $86M).

Financial Snapshot (as of recent)

• Market Cap: ~$650M
• Stock ~$4.10-$4.30
• Trailing P/E ~5x, Forward ~10x? Extremely cheap.
• Net debt ~$1B, leverage ~2.5x EBITDA (manageable but watch FCF post-Avis).
• Cash flow strong historically for debt service + buybacks (they were buying back before the drop – oops).

Bull Case – Why This Could Rip

• Oversold AF: Market acting as if the whole company died. Government moat + remaining Commercial (Hertz/Enterprise etc.) + Parking provide floor. Cost cuts/reallocation already planned.
• Valuation Insanity: At current prices, even conservative models scream upside. Some see fair value double digits if they hit mitigation.
• Catalysts:
  • Q2/Q3 beats on cost savings.
  • New gov't contract wins/bookings (they had solid ones in Q1).
  • Margin recovery via tech (MOSAIC platform).
  • PE Takeover Potential: Cash generative business with contracts + depressed valuation = LBO bait. PE owned them before. Leadership change could open door for strategic review/sale.
  • Short interest not crazy high but volume spiked.
  • Travel rebound helping rest of Commercial.

Potential PE Takeover / Strategic Sale Angle

One of the juiciest catalysts here is the private equity takeover or strategic review potential. VRRM was previously owned by Platinum Equity before going public via a 2018 SPAC merger with Gores Holdings. PE firms know this business inside out — recurring government contracts, sticky tech platform, and strong free cash flow generation even after the Avis hit.

At a ~$650M market cap and ~$1.7B enterprise value, with ~$140-150M in projected FCF and stable Government Solutions providing a reliable backbone, this looks like prime LBO bait for sponsors hunting quality assets on the cheap. Depressed valuation + leadership transition (interim CEO and permanent search underway) often signals openness to strategic options, including a full sale or recap. PE could load it up with debt (leverage is already manageable), cut costs aggressively, and relist or hold for synergies in the fragmented smart mobility/tolling space. No active rumours as of now, but the setup is textbook: oversold public comp with durable cash flows that PE previously monetised successfully. An activist push for a strategic review or sale process could ignite this thing fast — watch for 13D filings or board pressure in the coming quarters. If a credible buyer emerges, we’re talking serious premium to these levels (think 50-100%+ pop). 🥤

Risks (Why I'm a degen)

• More customer losses or NYC drama.
• Execution on costs/transition with interim CEO.
• Debt if FCF dips hard.
• Cyclical travel exposure + competition in bids.
• Could languish or test lower if misses continue. Not a quick flip.

Institutional ownership was high pre-crash; some likely capitulated but value guys might rotate back at these levels.

So.....

This is classic "buy the fear" territory. Smart mobility isn't going away – governments love enforcement tech, rentals still need toll shit. Avis loss sucks but not fatal if they deliver on the "mitigation." At $4, you're buying a business with real earnings power for pennies on the dollar.

Position: Small speculative long. Watch earnings, CEO search, any M&A rumors. If they stabilize, this rebounds hard. If not... well, that's why we size properly.

Not advice. Markets are wild. Do your own DD, read the 8-K, earnings calls. Could go to zero or 10x. Diamond hands or stay out.

🤔🤨🎧💸💸💸💸💸💸💸💸 yes