Daily ~3-4dB downstream power swing correlates with T3/critical events (rate-of-change, not absolute level) — but SNR & absolute power stay in spec, and 88% of events are T3 not T4. Plant or modem?
I'm hoping the community can help me. Residential DOCSIS 3.1 (Hitron CODA-57), self-hosted monitoring polling the modem's status page every 5 min into a time-series DB, so I've got a week's worth of channel-level data to look at. Mid-Atlantic US, humid subtropical climate and its been HOT if that's relevant. I've had this provider about 2 years and reliability has been mediocre — a couple times a week I have to power-cycle the modem to get throughput back to normal (~1.5 Gbps down / 50 Mbps up on this tier). When I call tech support, they would just have me power cycle, which led me to this effort to determine what was actually happening. Previous provider was rock-solid over several years — don't recall ever needing to power cycle — but cost roughly double for less bandwidth.
The pattern: downstream power drops uniformly across all 32 channels (OFDM + QAM) roughly noon–2PM local every single day, then recovers by evening. Checked against 7 days of hourly temperature data from the nearest airport station — it tracks almost exactly: power bottoms out within an hour of the daily temp peak, recovers as it cools. Swing is about +0.5 dBmV (early morning, coolest part of day) down to about -3.3 dBmV (afternoon peak heat). Reads like textbook coax thermal attenuation to me, and it's uniform across every channel, not isolated to one — so my working assumption is it's an outdoor plant effect, not a bad channel/connector on its own.
Outside Temp (Degree F) vs Cable Modem Downstream Power (dBmW)
Update: Here's a graphic that shows the correlation between temp and power. The blank spots are where the management interface crashed.
What's making me second-guess "just normal thermal drift":
- SNR barely moves during the same window (~39.2dB down to ~38.5dB) — nowhere near a spec floor.
- Downstream power itself never gets remotely close to spec limits even at the daily low point.
- Upstream power rises in the same window (~45.2 to ~46.4 dBmV) — so the modem's own power-control loop is clearly reacting to something real on the whole path, not just a downstream quirk.
This isn't purely academic — some of these T3 clusters have coincided with real throughput/packet-loss degradation, and the management interface has crashed outright a few times, neither recovering without a manual power cycle.
Raw event log examples (MACs redacted):
- T3 timeout — dominant type, 71 of 81 critical entries over 10 days: No Ranging Response received - T3 time-out;CM-MAC=xx:xx:xx:xx:xx:02;CMTS-MAC=xx:xx:xx:xx:xx:22;CM-QOS=1.1;CM-VER=3.1;
- T4 timeout — only 1 occurrence in the whole 10-day window (2026-08-09 02:22:42 UTC): Received Response to Broadcast Maintenance Request, But no Unicast Maintenance opportunities received - T4 time out;CM-MAC=xx:xx:xx:xx:xx:02;CMTS-MAC=xx:xx:xx:xx:xx:22;CM-QOS=1.1;CM-VER=3.1;
- Short-form T3 (no MAC suffix) — 4 occurrences, all clustered ~05:56 local on 2026-08-07, right after that night's reboot — likely a logging artifact from the modem not yet having repopulated CM-MAC/CMTS-MAC post-reboot, not 4 independent events: No Ranging Response received - T3 time-out
So: 88% of critical events are T3 (no ranging response from the CMTS), essentially none are T4. Absolute downstream signal levels look healthy at every snapshot, but something isn't tolerating the transition well. When I pulled 10 days of critical events (72 matched against 5-min power data) and compared them against the modem's rate-of-change in power at that moment vs. a full-dataset baseline: 78% of critical events happened while power was actively changing (either direction) above the median rate-of-change, vs. 50% you'd expect if it were unrelated. That's a moderate, repeatable skew (P≈0.63 that a random event-moment has higher volatility than a random baseline moment) — real, but not absolute; roughly a fifth of events still happen during stable stretches, so I'm treating this as a contributing factor, not a proven mechanism.
My best guess is either (a) a connector/splice/amp somewhere in the drop or upstream return path with slightly degraded contact or reflection behavior that only shows up during temperature-driven mechanical movement, or (b) the modem's own ranging/equalization being sluggish specifically while conditions are actively moving, rather than at any fixed level.
Anyone seen this specific signature before — power/SNR fine in isolation, almost all T3 rather than T4, but fault rate tracking rate-of-change rather than absolute level? What would you check first in the field (F-connectors, ground block, a specific amp stage, the return path specifically given the T3-heavy pattern), and is this worth pushing on with the ISP, or does it sound more like a modem swap is the right first move to rule that variable out?