u/Chart-trader

The consolidation for tech continued this week. It did not help that the ceasefire was broken just yesterday.

End of June also means major rebalancing of institutional investors. Winners were bought and losers sold.

The rally in IGV today showed me that we might be done with the end of the month rebalancing.

The fact that IWM and DIA continued to rally makes me believe that the underlying macro is still intact.

Short term portfolios added equities this week and I plan on buying more on the way down as I did in March.

Long term portfolios will stay 25% in cash/bonds because as laid out in previous posts valuations are stretched.

July is usually a good month and I don't expect any negative earnings surprises.

Put/Call ratio and other indicators suggest that a continued sell off is unlikely.

Monday we will likely breach the 50 day average in the NDX 100. Let's see how low we will go.

As always: Bottom fishing is the most painful part of investing. As portfolios drop in value adding more and more leverage compounds those losses.

There might be a time again where I tune out like in previous downturns to stay the course.

Let's see how bad next week will be. I am hoping for a resumption of the bull run but am ready for a break down if it happens.

Have a great weekend!

S&P 500: Let's see if the S&P 500 can deliver once again in July.

S&P 500: A close above 20 day average would be great for the bull case. Put/Call ratio albeit coming down still supports a breakout of the bull flag.

I trimmed a little bit to lock in profits

Why does reddit feel repetitive (former repetetive) lately?

EUR/USD weekly: Support for equities could finally also come from a weaker USD.

S&P 500 price/book ratio keeps climbing! Let's go!

Tech is now 50%(!) of the S&P 500

SOXX: And I covered a naked call from last week with a small profit. I love betting against the majority of traders.

S&P 500: Now SPY looks like a bull flag. Together with indicators and crazy high put/call ratio a breakout should be possible.

It's a start: Everything was laid out over the weekend. Let's see if my base case comes to fruition.

Central Bankers on AI risk: I mean they have a point.

Rate cuts coming: I said for weeks that TLT suggests rate cuts.

Investment thesis for 6/29-7/2

S&P 500: SPY is still in consolidation mode. After reaching the 100% extension (1) it was expected. Problem is that we closed below 50 day average (2). Put/Call ratio is similar to March and nobody can tell where we will stabilize. But a bounce will likely be hard again once we stabilize!

Dow Jones: DIA technically continues to be in a bull market.

HYG: Credit spread still below 50 day average. I would feel more comfortable above 50 and 200 day averages for equities.

VIX: No clues from the VIX

Safe Haven Demand almost at March 30th levels!

Put/Call ratio: We are again at extremes and with a ratio like this I will NOT sell. To the contrary: I will embrace losses while adding to my positions.

Fear and Greed index: We are again in extreme fear territory. That always awakens my buy instinct.