▲ 51 r/spikes

[Standard] Ban winners losers

So we just had quite the shakeup.

Per MTGgoldfish past month, the current T8 most popular decks are (winners ✅; losers 🫠):

  1. Prowess (lost talent 🫠)
  2. Jeskai lessons (gran 🫠gran)
  3. WG Ouro (Lost cub 🫠)
  4. Spellementals ✅
  5. 4CC ✅⬆️👍🏽
  6. mono G LF (cub 🫠)
  7. Dimir x (✅👍🏽)
  8. Izzet lessons (🫠😵💀)

While I didn’t expect all this (noteworthy just one more RCQ season left before talent was rotating out in Jan with many other cards) this is a decent ban upstate. The top 5 standard decks were pretty locked with just minor % changes each week.

This successfully hits each of the t3 decks (including every variation of prowess/spells/self bounce which is like ~19% of the meta), without outright killing any deck (except maybe izzet lessons, im sure you all will figure it out tho Ancestral is still quite the card).

Seems this should also give any decks that had a bad MU against the 3 most popular decks a window of opportunity as well.

What are your thoughts?

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u/Christos_Soter — 10 days ago

Weekend: 2 decks; 2 RCQ finals; my 2 cents on the competitive grind

Hi all,

So I had a pretty strong run this last weekend of RCQ season on two very different decks--Ruby Storm and WU Blink. I was undefeated in Swiss in both and made it to finals in both. Below is a lengthy tourney report, with some tips and then thoughts on life + grinding competitive mtg (esp as a "normal" FT employed 9-5'er with a family etc)

Deck-list for Ruby: https://moxfield.com/decks/xNiDHoTslUK0ZFpOCoS2HA

Deck list for WU Blink (I mess with slots in moxfield too often so just sharing deck reg)

Modern is in an interesting meta right now; I oscillated about which deck to play for this last weekend of RCQ season. I'd been leaving Ruby on the shelf all season (despite over 1K reps on the deck) under the theory that its bad MUs are really bad and at the RCQ level I'd rather lean on a deck with a flatter MU spread and trust my skill level/format knowledge. Notwithstanding I was driving to an RCQ almost two hours away into an unknown meta and thought maybe this weekend could be a nice pocket where people saw ruby did poorly at PT and wouldn't respect it and when ruby is unchecked its a very powerful and fast deck.

Saturday: Ruby Storm

4-0-1 in to t8 (18 players)

R1 Merfolk 2-1(this is not an easy MU For us)
notes: game 1 I figured I lose to FoN regardless but can play through a Hexcatcher (and fail case he'd have to lose 2 fish); g2 lose to FoN + flare + fast clock; g3 I find a SB piece, play slower and he only had sink into stupor as interaction

R2 Affinity 2-1
Game 1 he's clearly representing rebuke; I just play out an impulse on t2 (hand has ruby; Morphose; 2x Hexmagic; 3rd land) he lets it go. t3 he passes with rebuke mana up again; I hard cast a hex magis into it and it eats a rebuke--pass; he does affinity things on untap and passes tapped out with tormod's crypt out. I storm off and have resources to play through one gy exile.
He had t2 kappa both next games (hasted game 2 i lost to that); G3 I had to go for it on t3 with very few resources mull to 5 game 3(and I brain farted forgot to remove gemstone remembering right after i mulled to 6 which was an unkeepable one lander; and sure enough that was my second land on 5, but wasn’t dead bc I used the colorless for hex magic). Hand was ruby 2 lands; hex magic ritual. I had to go for it and get a little lucky...i did.

R3 Prowess 2-0 Just raced with ruby game 1;
g2 I had two reducers opening hand; surveiled left [a second] Ruby on top bc he passed with mana up. Read was correct. Three rubies countered by 2 consigns and a pierce was able to cast Ral win a flip at 3 life said yes (even tho storm count was only like 3) used -2 killed Slickshot pass
#prayer answered he didn’t top deck bolt; I did not fetch bc didn’t want to die to dart. I found the resources to go off and kill him the following turn.

Untapped and found lethal storm.

R4 Boros nrg 2-0. Got paired down had to play.
G1 opponent is holding up 2 mana, an obvious thraben charm. I play around it and storm off. Game 2 he presents a really fast clock guide pride ajani ajani (flip) +2 i'm at like 3-4 life. but he tapped out.... I had no choice, but to go for it, I did and killed him.

R5 ID

top 8 Had the one seed

Quarters *handshake* (friend who already has invite)

Semis 2-0 against trudge; you gotta race this deck and game 1 I out raced him.

G2 he keeps a one lander bc it had Endurance + [[Trinisphere]]l. I tried to go for it with PIF but hedged against Endurance by saying yes to Ral flip on 5 spells when casting PIF with two reducers out.

Next turn + Ral (to 8 loyalty; Ruby also on board); and decided to pass holding up 3 mana instead of impulse in case he had Trinispere; OPP’ finds his second land casts Trinisphere; I wear it EOT untap ult Ral find lethal.

Finals

L 1-2 to WU scepter chant Contol.

This is a nightmare match-up. The plan of dodging it worked all day until finals. I was happy to take game 1 just managed to play through one piece of interaction and find a fast hand . Post board is a nightmare High noons rips etc. G2 I presumed i'd lose just played out to learn what pieces he brought in (High Noon and RIP). Now I will admit; it's NEVER too late to blunder even if you've been playing tight all day. I kept a hand without a reducer game 3 b/c it had chant on the theory that i usually want to impulse t2 and i NEED to high roll against this deck anyways (I was gonna be cold to him slamming high noon, but figured even if he had it; he may not slam it on 3). I did not find a reducer top 5 cards. He cast a Narset. I surveil and leave Hex Magic on top.

I untap and blunder casting Hex into Narset #Draw0 #3mana:DiscardACard. FWIW my muscle memory on this deck took over from hundreds of games casting [[Glimpse the impossible]] in this slot and just straight forgot about the word "draw" and that Narset's text was relevant here. I wouldn't have found a reducer in the next 3 cards either and was going to lose after he untapped and cast high noon + RIP anyways, but I just wanted to mention this to emphasize how important it is to play tight all the way to the end and take your time ESP in t8 when there's no round timer.

Alas. Twas a good run 6-1-1 on the day

Takeaways:

  • [[Hex Magic]] is quite the card (blunder notwithstanding) Ruby players should play 4 IMHO, and all the successful grinders are also on 3-4 copies
  • Third surveil feels correct.
  • I really like [[Lindblum, Industrial Regency]] AND [[Great Hall of the Biblioplex]] as utility lands (Utility being they can kill your opponent in one turn) with VERY low opportunity cost, but one win con on a land is prob enough (I chose lindblum; but if youre splashing 3rd color hall gets better and is always a 3rd color for p. ending).
  • [[Suspend aggression]] main for emotional support was relevant 1 game against Affinity; flex slot but just not being completely cold to main board stax pieces did feel nice. this is obviously optional and you can run any number of things here instead (e.g. Flashback, red March etc)
  • TAKE your time esp on the big turns, double check your mana will be enough *before* you take your game actions* etc; check your triggers on every spell. I gave you an example above of me not doing this and blundering, but worth mentioning I had several opportunities to misplay and fizzle all day, but I didn't. These nuances are hard to break down but one example was when to cast PIF into opposing tormod's crypt (i did so when I could respond to the pop with two rituals and a morphose after GY exile with PIF still on the stack). it would take too many words to explain all the nuances
  • May cut empty or stormacale (poll on ETW with 20 of you responding showed 80% of players cast it one or less times in 10 matches**. Maybe that 10% is enough to increase win rate by 2% and that’s worth it idk)…
  • In the current meta I'd probably run at least two (if not 3) Flusterstorm over 2 chant/silence. Azax (current mtgo trophy leader) is doing this and it makes a lot of sense given how well Fluster wins stacks and hedges against our worst MUs.
  • Ruby, my beloved, I think is a great deck in the right meta, and will perform very poorly in the wrong meta. With the ebbs and flows of modern, combo as an archetype recently up-ticked significantly and that is followed by control showing increase meta % which is currently happening, hard to say but the ripest window may be closing for a month or more. Still a fine choice in leagues and maybe challenges.

I could say A LOT more about Ruby and have. In fact I wrote a ~50 page guide (I may circle back and try to update more in the next few days but have a busy week of "real life" priorities ahead of me). You can find it [for free] here (use the "Document Tabs" function for contents and easy navigation). This will be very useful if you're new to the deck and old hands should also appreciate that I discuss almost every individual, playable, card you could imagine putting in the deck (and probably several that weren't in your radar; if i missed any cards you're curious about let me know)

If you're not in The Epic Storm Discord, we're pretty active.

Sunday: WU Blink

3-0-2 into t4 (16 players)

I was on the fence again about deck choice so packed up 3 options and was VERY close to registering Ruby again until I walked in and saw a known control player and that was enough for me to register blink instead.

R1 Boros Ponza Ctrl 1-1 Game 2 have a fast clock double guide pride, and this is nice to have against this deck (and as soon as i see what he's on i don't over commit to the board). As always with this deck its a bit of a boring slog fest and a lot of shuffling in paper. 4th basic was a hedge and glad i made that decision. g2 unfortunately i have a basic in my opener and top deck another one; unlucky, we have a long game and it's close but he stabilizes and ofc actually successfuly runs me out of basics this time before i get to 5 mana. g3 we go to time and draw.

R2 UW Control 1-1 (not the player mentioned above)
L game 1 despite finding Tef, he has the right answers at the right time and finds scepter lock.
G2
SB out/in:
-1 pride; -3 ephem; -1 shepherd
+Dovin's veto (glad I packed this today); +2 Dispute; +1 [[Legend ot Kuruk]]; +1 Clarion Conquerer
this was quite the battle as I ate a few board wipes. There were several decision points but I managed to land a teferi and eventually a Legend of Kurruk which was big. [[Aang, Swift Savior]] may have also saved this game as i was able to air bend his chant (under scepter) on my upkeep which chocked up his mana, and hold up ephemerate to do the same the following turn and keep pressuring life total. I eventually had guide pride too but was afraid of over extending into a board wipe so instead of dealing 4 more damage i chose to blink Legend of kuruk of phelia instead of a warped riddler. Sure enough he untapped and had verdict. I got this game but it took a while
G3 I had a fantastic opener with tef and some countermagic and early guide pride + Aang, but we ran out of time went to turns, he asked if i wanted to concede i said know showed him my golden hand asked him the same he said no.

R3 (need to win out) Boros energy 2-0
G1 I have P.ending solitude and 2x pride, keep. He had two discharges and removed my creatures but then i did the same and eventually blew him out with a warp ephem riddler + solitdue ephem.
G2 he floods a bit and I just have a fast hand.
SB just bring in your wraths and snares here, if you're afraid of flipped ajani you can bring in Clarion but i don't. Kuruk is also great here (their Roku is the better Saga but ours is still fantastic value).

R4 mill. G1 I have fast pressure despite them having crypt incursion and one main board pierce found was enough to stop one of their 3 mana sorceries.
G2 similar story I evoke solitude on their t1 crab they found an esnaring bridge but i had teferi to bounce it and 'twas gg quickly that lined up well for me.
SB: obviously bring in your countermagic here, I also like RIP as it turns off several of their spells, I'm fine going to ~64 cards but don't get cute and board in all 15 you'll miss your land drops.

R5 Zoo. I pair into a friend (who already has his invite) and he concedes to me. This is a good MU, esp on my current configuration (2 consign main; Aang really shines here; as teferi can bounce a Guildpact etc) tho so I would have been ok to play it out if he wanted to, but the best equity you can have in this game locally is friends.

Top 4, had the 3 seed

Semis Trudge 2-1
Thankfully, after the PT I spent a lot of time staring at Trudge lists, recently watched a few spike videos to familiarize myself with the play patterns, and see what the deck loses too. Spike gave made helpful comments about the few cards the deck is weak against (e.g. Tef, Solitude, prismatic Ending) and well, I was running some of those cards main. Other cards nice to have main were 2x consign 2x Pierce.
My plan here was to attack his mana when possible, keep him off comboing and try to tempo him out before he could hard cast any of his Eldrazi / Ugin. This plan worked well game 1. Game 2 He ramped quickly into a Sire and i unfortunately didn't have consign or solitude, i drew solitude a turn too late (had been smacked down to 7 life b/c I had to bolt myself twice with MDFCs so a little unlucky perhaps).
Game 3 I stuck to the same tempo plan which included bouncing their spawn token with phelia instead of scamming my riddler/getting another etb off white orchid. Dog + orchid + assembled guide pride by ~t4 off ranger captain and was able to pop Ranger captain on his upkeep to not lose to an ugin k command or all is dust etc (opp was dead on board otherwise). I had one mana and ephemerated riddler hoping to find solitude in hindsight i would have left that mana up, still popped ranger on upkeep then ephemerated W Orchid on their upkeep to keep them -1 mana for the turn. He had EXACT mana for emrakul with 6 types in the yard. Thankfully I was so far ahead that even though he did a lot of damage controling my next turn (removed 4 creatures) I still had lethal the following turn.

Finals
Esper Frog (W for Teferi and SB cards)

I expressed interest a redistribution of prizes, he declined, he wanted the invite too. Fair enough, this is a favored MU and in my experience in ~20 matches against Dimir. Last chance this season, let's do this.

Game 1 OTD.
My opener is: 3 lands, Solitude, Ephem, Riddler, Spell Pierce. Not the best (I'd prefer an early guide pride with some interaction, but def better than a random 6) I keep. My opponent draw-go's me first 3 turns; I surveiled away both Consign to memory, oscillated on the 2nd one for a bit but i wanted to prioritize 4th land drop. I of course considered several different lines (warp Riddler t2; Warp t2 pierce if countered; if not countered just take the card OR Ephem) but I passed back with 3 open thinking several possibilities. He makes fourth land drop and passes. I don't top deck 4th land (found prismatic ending; and my previous draw was a redundant solitude).

Alright, I cannot pass again gotta jam. I cast Riddler waiting for the counterspell...SUBTLETY. oof. Ok. Top (maybe this was a mistake but at this point a random card is likely to be worse even if it's known info to my opponent on countermagic). I pass.

Note: hindsight is 20:20, but I should have asked myself on t3 "If i warp a riddler here and he has countermagic how bad is that?" the answer is "not that bad." if it's Subtl then he two for ones himself; if it's counterspell then i can fight on the stack. If he let's riddler resolve, I get to see another card and decide if I want to try to ephemerate or not. It's not clearly correct but perhaps the safer line than what i chose letting him have hard cast sub mana...i got punished hard for my choice.

his t4 I eat 3 damage, he passes again i top deck 4th land now. i dont' have much else to do i solitude ephem targeting subtltety hoping to buy back time not get my life presured too much. he lets it go, but a turn later kills my solitude with the classic bowmwaster trick. I lose.

It's alright this MU gets even better for me post board, we will get this in 3.

GAME 2

In: Dovin's Veto; 2x Dispute; Sanctifier; 2x Snare; 1x Clarion (for Frog; Tef; Kaito) 1x RIP (was on the fence about the last card but in theory keeps Frog Grounded and means he has to hard cast Tasigur and if he left in Cling to Dust it turns that off too).
Out: trimmed on some four ofs and cut pierces under the theory that now that he saw them main he might play around them (and that's to my benefit whether they're in or not) and that i'd rather have the nonconditional counters in and I cannot cut too many threats.

Opening hand: Dovin's Veto; Snare; RIP; p.ending; lands. ok no threats but i'll find some this hand is full of SB cards so this is kind of what i asked for. t2 i hold up snare and surveil. t3 I have a think (he passed with two open mana IIRC) "Do i hold up Dovin's Veto + Snare or take this window to stick the RIP, reduce risk of tempo loss/ before he gets close to Tasigur mana," I ask myself. I cast RIP, he thinks and let's it go. He untaps and casts Teferi. I am punished very hard again for my choice (if i kept Veto up this 3feri cannot resolve), bounce my RIP etc. If he'd untapped and gone for a frog or just passed back maybe i'm rewarded, but again hindsight is 20:20; this felt bad.

I find a Guide of souls on top cast guide hope for the best. Later I try to attack tef down, i smell a bowman but he instant speeds a pest control instead. I find another guide later and sniff a bowman there's nothing much i can do about that as i don't have 3rd color for pending to deal with tef that is blanking both counterspells in my hand. I attack into tef and he gets to eat my 2nd guide with his bowmaster token. I considered solituding his bowmaster on my turn, but at this point was a little tilted tbh and passed instead. he attacked and ninjitsu'd in Kaito. I top deck ocelot pride which would be great if i didn't know he had bowmaster back in hand, but i otherwise have two dead cards in hand. I cast it.... I'm perhaps too traumatized to accurately remember the rest...but i got chonked by kaito a couple times he had 0'd (surveil 2 draw) a few times and had ~5 cards in hand with a commanding board presence and probably plenty of permission. I cast one more spell that met a counterspell. I stared at my hand for a moment, contemplated life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness...then I offered him the handshake.

Two RCQs in Two days; Two finals...and 2nd place twice.

Thoughts on the competitive Grind as a "normal" person

First, my opponents were nice humans, hats off to both who beat me in the finals. The control player seemed to be in a very similar chapter of life as we both have young babies; 2nd finalist opponent great dude, local to my area always happy to play him..

By "normal" I mean

  1. I cannot do this full time like some of the pros etc
  2. I'm married with a kid, have a demanding job and am pretty involved in standing commitments with church and otherwise.
  3. Magic, as you know is a game of variance which is both very fun and can also be very heartbreaking at times. "Every dog has his day," some might say--personally I don't think everyone does--but the reality is if you hope to spike a tourney or have a deep run at an RC/make the PT etc you have to make a large number of attempts. We are not all in a season of life where that's realistic...so you go when you can and hope for the best. I love Modern, maybe you do too ('tis ok if you don't lol). I tried to make most weekend of RCQs that I could this season and I made just over half. I top 8'd several, I lost in another finals match first month of the season; I lost three or four win-and-ins at 43-50 person RCQs (going 4-2 and getting 9th in one of those felt bad too). Like many of you I'm active in discords, follow this /r plenty and do a lot of testing in leagues, scour successful deck lists, and when I can, the occasional challenge. Like anything in life we should focus on what we can control; and we of course cannot control if our opponent gets lucky. I try to consider every match winnable and just focus on whether I could have made a different choice at any point, sometimes will go back to watch replays on MTGO etc. My priority is to focus on improving every tourney I play, but like many others I'm trying to win the tournament and will be happiest if I do.

I am aware, that I should take heart in that my win rate is positive in paper and on MTGO, results are trending and the likelihood I would spike a tourney was good this season--but I did not. All those good results top 8s, t4s and three finals matches, but no conversion. Those are pretty decent results; I know the numbers, and that I should trust the process of the grind, but yesterday, it still felt bad as it hit me immediately after the handshake that another Modern season ended and I didn't get my invite to the RC.

I felt sad.

Speaking to myself too, but if you're in a similar boat, we can trust the process. It can be difficult to know though that your best odds are when you have as many attempts as possible, and yet with real life priorities (and you really SHOULD prioritize those things) it's actually just not possible to make most/all those tourneys for most of us. That's reality.

I hope to have a deep run at the PT one day; this year I got to celebrate a friend who made the PT after we played at RC.D.C. (we worked on the same list together I barely missed day two with a 5-4 finish our other friend placed in the prizing), so the dream is very much real friends. At the end of the day, we play this game for fun...and magic is a lot of fun--I hope you enjoy it along the way win or lose (I know i had some memorable games this season)--but life should take precedent. Whether for you it's school, work, your partner, kids, God etc. those things should take priority and are much more stable and healthy sources of joy.

My family and some pal's already made plans for Baltimore so maybe I'll see some of you in the LCQ trenches. I just know tomorrow morning I'll be back at the office.

May your opening hands be great, your top decks be perfect, your games very good, and your opponents clean and friendly.

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u/Christos_Soter — 17 days ago

RCQs Miami / Ft Lauderdale area Sat 25th?

Hi All,
so i'll be in Northern Miami/Fort Lauderdale area this coming weekend and looking for a Saturday RCQ but Companion isn't showing any (there's exactly one on Sunday at Hey Wanna Play but it starts too late to be realistic for me).

I thought a metro area of over 500k people the game would be more popular. Am I missing something (like do stores fire and just not post on companion?) or are there really none happening in the area?
Any LGS I should call and ask?

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u/Christos_Soter — 1 month ago
▲ 15 r/Pauper

Ban list head cannon story

I would like you all to know that after 9 days of glory developing an addiction to Hawkeye’s bow that [[Seeker of Skybreak]] is actually quite happy to join other banned cards that have [[Fallen from Favor]].

They’ve just been hanging out next to [[Basking Broodscale]] under the July sunshine staring at [[cloudpost]], it it stares back at them with a cloud of Faeries surrounding its pupil. Seeker is sure now that this break from infinitely pinging players to death is in fact better than what they sought their whole life.

In less than 24 hours seeker has gone on a treasure cruise, discovered All That glitters, including a snowy Astroblade, and no longer feels that frantic need to search for anything.

Seeker was lounging at a Mystic sanctuary after the tide went down bragging to about 25 squirrels how quickly he was banned when cranial ram came over and said, “yeah you think you’re special? You were out for years I never saw a day of play.”

Turns out disciple of the Vaults room is just laden with stickers and attractions now and the warrens are empty. In the distance you can hear some critters sneaking in and out of dungeons whispering hymns to torach.

Swiftspear was in a rush and declined any comments.

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u/Christos_Soter — 2 months ago
▲ 37 r/MTGO

Consign to memory is 33 Tix for one copy

Can we get a petition for MTGO team to open/"print" about 1 billion more copies of [[Consign to memory]] so decks aren't ~$100 more than they should be if you want to play 4 copies of this uncommon in your side board?

For reference Quantum riddler is 29 to 38 Tix depending on which treatment.

Half joking, and I understand this is a super staple, but this does feel a little ridiculous I increased my rental sub to 534 tix yesterday only to be told a DAY later i cannot rent the same deck and would need to increase again.

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u/Christos_Soter — 2 months ago

MTGO rent/buy balance?

Coming here bc I’m annoyed that on my premium MT rental sub I’m still ~40 tix shy of renting some decks I’d like to play and this begs a question for the longer run of what is the best EV over time.

Obviously the risk of buying any deck outright online is that things rotate and cards can lose playability, but then renting you’re always paying monthly and never owning. (Eg $40/month x 12 vs the price or the deck you want).

This would be simple if I just wanted to play one deck in one format. But it’s more like I want to play ~4-5 modern decks on rotation (and being able to mess with brews/ideas on occasion before buying in in paper is nice) and when it’s standard season being able to just rent those cards.

Seems the happy medium would be buying some staples and eventually lowering my rental tier to a cheaper amount.

Sorry if any similar question has been posed recently (I couldn’t find any answering my Qs when I searched just now). I’m not looking to flip cards I just want to be most feasible as a an evening/weekend Mtgo/RCQ grinder.

Questions:
Has someone in a similar situation ran the numbers?
Regardless, those of you who buy, do you just use goat bots? Any tips on saving?
-also while I’m here (and I know a version of this has been asked, sorry) what’s your opinion on EV value of tix when trading chests vs cracking them is best?

Would welcome any related discussion/thoughts.

If it’s helpful I mostly play Ruby Storm, WU blink and sometimes other decks in modern eg prowess zoo, Boros, rock decks and brews (never Titan or tron) So some overlap in staples.

In standard I don’t mess around too much usually play a top meta deck.

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u/Christos_Soter — 2 months ago

Today I just realized my foul mh3 flooded stave appears to be a miscut. The top border is balatantly larger than average. You can see it is clearly different next to a normal foil from the same set.

Anyone know anything about this? And ofc the typical question that begs, is it worth more than a normal copy (how much)?

Given this is a multi format highly playable staple somebody tell me this is with way more than a normal flooded strand i would love to find a buyer for this.

I hear warnings all the time on this sub but if I actually want to sell it where is best to do so?

u/Christos_Soter — 4 months ago