u/Clarkey7163

Last year Owen Phillips did a great statistical breakdown of performance in Summer League games vs. the actual outcome of a Rookie's season.

Source is here: https://thef5.substack.com/p/summer-league-stats-you-can-trust

the TLDR is basically stats near the top are more likely to match the players future projections in their rookie season than stats at the bottom.

This is a positive and a negative, as Owen describes:

>if a player shows a willingness to pass the ball at summer league then they’ll likely carry over that same willingness into their rookie season.

in regards to assists as an example, but then negatively:

>if a player is bombing threes in summer league then chances are they’ll do the same at the NBA level.

The main ones that stand out as bad indicators of a players future are obviously the shooting splits, very rarely does a players 2pt and 3pt percentage ever match their rookie season stats. So as we watch today pay more attention to the sticky stats than the scoring is basically what this post is pointing at