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u/DubsWasASaint

r/Kalshi r/PredictionsMarkets r/Polymarket
I Logged 6,532 15-Minute Bitcoin Markets on Kalshi and Polymarket, the Side Ahead at Halfway Won 75% of the Time, here's how it went:
▲ 13 r/PredictionsMarkets

I Logged 6,532 15-Minute Bitcoin Markets on Kalshi and Polymarket, the Side Ahead at Halfway Won 75% of the Time, here's how it went:

I logged every 15-minute Bitcoin Up or Down market that settled on Kalshi and Polymarket from September 6 to October 10, 2026, with the price at each tenth of the way through, and checked how often the side in front went on to win.

Data TLDR

  • The side ahead at halfway won 2,440 of 3,242 Kalshi markets and 2,449 of 3,260 Polymarket markets. That is 75.2% and 75.1%.
  • The typical leader cost 74.6c on Kalshi and 74.7c on Polymarket at that point, so across the whole board the price is almost exactly right.
  • The edge is in the strong leaders. A side at 70c or more at halfway won 85.2% of the time on Kalshi at an average price of 83.4c, and 85.3% on Polymarket at 83.9c. Buying every one of them returned 2.2% and 1.6% on stake before fees, and about 1.0% on Kalshi after its taker fee.
  • The last result tells you nothing. After three Ups or three Downs in a row, the next Kalshi market went the same way 187 of 399 times.
  • It is never over. 56 markets across the two venues had a side at 90c or more at halfway that still lost, and with 90 seconds left the leader lost 706 of 6,527.

Each of these markets asks one thing: will Bitcoin be higher in 15 minutes than it is now. A new one opens the moment the last one closes. For every market that settled we kept which side won and the Up price at nine points, from a tenth of the way through to nine tenths. The leader at any point is the side priced above 50c. A market sitting at exactly 50c, or with no price yet, has no leader and is left out of that point: 28 on Kalshi and 2 on Polymarket at halfway.

Return on stake is a flat buy of the leader at its recorded price in every market of a group, held to the result. The price is the last traded price at that moment, not the ask you would pay, and the headline figures are before fees. That is why we show the Kalshi result after its taker fee as well.

Everything here is one measurement on one date from a frozen export, 3,270 Kalshi markets and 3,262 Polymarket markets, so every figure can be re-derived. These are modeled results on a historical record, not realized returns.

Three out of four halfway leaders win, on both venues

Pooled, the side ahead at 7 minutes 30 seconds won 4,889 of 6,502 markets, 75.1%. Kalshi and Polymarket are a tenth of a point apart, which they should be, because both are pricing the same 15 minutes of Bitcoin.

Up and Down split evenly. Up won 1,635 of 3,270 on Kalshi, exactly half, and 1,621 of 3,262 on Polymarket. There is no drift to lean on. The information is in who is ahead and by how much.

Where the wins land through the 15 minutes

How often the side ahead at each point went on to win, with the average price of that side at that point.

Time in Kalshi win rate Kalshi price Polymarket win rate Polymarket price
1:30 59.9% 59.8c 60.4% 59.9c
3:00 67.2% 65.6c 64.6% 63.3c
4:30 69.1% 67.7c 68.9% 68.1c
6:00 73.5% 72.4c 71.1% 70.2c
7:30 75.2% 74.6c 75.1% 74.7c
9:00 80.1% 79.3c 78.2% 76.7c
10:30 81.1% 81.8c 81.4% 81.5c
12:00 86.2% 87.1c 83.9% 84.0c
13:30 88.9% 90.1c 89.3% 89.8c

The first nine minutes are where the leader is cheap

Read the table across. From 1:30 to 9:00 the leader wins a little more often than it costs on both venues, by up to 1.6 points. From 10:30 on it flips: the leader costs as much as it wins or slightly more. The late favorite is the crowded trade. The early and middle leader is the one the market is still slow to believe.

Buying the leader costs money, and the strong ones still clear it

Buy every halfway leader at 70c or more and hold it. On Kalshi that is 2,031 markets, 1,731 wins, an average price of 83.4c and a 2.2% return on stake. On Polymarket it is 2,000 markets, 1,706 wins, 83.9c and 1.6%. Pooled it is 3,437 wins from 4,031 markets and 1.9%.

Kalshi's taker fee at that price is 0.97c a contract, 1.2% of the stake. Take it off and the Kalshi result is about 1.0% a trade. Small, but it is there on every one of the eight series we checked, and one of these markets settles every 15 minutes.

The clock is much more important than the streak

People trade these on streaks. Three Ups in a row, so a Down is due, or so the run keeps going. Neither holds. After exactly three of the same result in a row the next Kalshi market repeated it 187 of 399 times, and the next Polymarket market 192 of 396. After exactly two it was 400 of 841 and 397 of 835. After five or more it was 95 of 182 and 95 of 180. All of it is a coin flip.

What does carry information is the price and the minute. A leader at 1:30 wins 59.9% on Kalshi. The same leader at 7:30 wins 75.2%, and at 13:30 wins 88.9%. Large buyers trade it that way too. In the 1,098 Kalshi Bitcoin markets that drew large buys at 85c or less, the side with more of that money won 734, 66.8%.

Kalshi Bitcoin by the leader's price at halfway

Markets grouped by what the side in front cost at 7:30. Return is a flat buy of every leader in the row, before fees.

Leader's price Markets Leader won Win rate Avg price Return on stake
50 to 55c 270 136 50.3% 52.4c -3.9%
55 to 60c 292 169 57.8% 57.0c +1.5%
60 to 70c 649 404 62.2% 64.4c -3.3%
70 to 80c 728 559 76.7% 74.4c +3.2%
80 to 90c 746 646 86.5% 84.6c +2.4%
90c and up 557 526 94.4% 93.5c +1.0%

Polymarket Bitcoin by the leader's price at halfway

Leader's price Markets Leader won Win rate Avg price Return on stake
50 to 55c 313 172 54.9% 52.5c +4.7%
55 to 60c 301 165 54.8% 57.3c -4.4%
60 to 70c 646 406 62.8% 65.1c -3.4%
70 to 80c 712 546 76.6% 75.1c +2.1%
80 to 90c 744 641 86.1% 85.0c +1.3%
90c and up 544 519 95.4% 94.0c +1.5%

The same thing on Ethereum, Solana and XRP

The 15-minute series for the other three coins over the same weeks. Halfway leader's win rate, then the leaders at 70c or more.

Series Markets Halfway leader won Avg price At 70c or more Return on stake
Kalshi Bitcoin 3,270 75.2% 74.6c 85.2% +2.2%
Kalshi Ethereum 3,270 77.0% 75.8c 86.2% +1.8%
Kalshi Solana 3,270 77.0% 76.8c 86.1% +1.3%
Kalshi XRP 3,270 78.2% 76.8c 87.1% +2.6%
Polymarket Bitcoin 3,262 75.1% 74.7c 85.3% +1.6%
Polymarket Ethereum 3,257 76.7% 76.1c 85.9% +1.0%
Polymarket Solana 3,159 77.5% 76.8c 86.5% +1.2%
Polymarket XRP 3,165 78.6% 77.1c 87.1% +1.9%

The ones buying the leader loses on

The weak leader. A side at 60 to 70c at halfway is the one spot that loses on both venues: it won 62.2% on Kalshi at an average 64.4c and 62.8% on Polymarket at 65.1c, a return of -3.3% and -3.4% before fees. A small lead at halfway is priced as if it were a bigger one.

The near coin flip. Under 60c the two venues disagree with each other row by row, which is what noise looks like. A Kalshi leader at 50 to 55c won 136 of 270.

The comeback. A side at 90c or more at halfway lost 31 of 557 times on Kalshi and 25 of 544 on Polymarket. With 90 seconds left the leader still lost 360 of 3,267 Kalshi markets and 346 of 3,260 on Polymarket, about one in nine. Even at 90c or more with 90 seconds left it lost 59 of 2,282 on Kalshi and 47 of 2,221 on Polymarket.

Data: every settled 15-minute Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana and XRP market on Kalshi and Polymarket, September 6 to October 10, 2026, recorded by Rivo. More studies and downloads: rivo.markets/research

u/DubsWasASaint — 5 days ago
▲ 9 r/PredictionsMarkets

I copied 6,005 Polymarket whale bets late. 10 minutes late cost nothing, an hour late turned +7.6% into -2.5%

I took every whale-sized buy on Polymarket from August 23 to 25, 2026, and copied each one at $100 six times: at the whale's own price, then at the next buy on the same side 30 seconds, 2 minutes, 10 minutes, 30 minutes and an hour later. Every copy was held to the market's result.

Data TLDR

  • Copying 10 minutes late made the same money as copying instantly: +7.6% at the whale's price, +7.7% ten minutes later, on 6,005 settled entries.
  • After that the edge fades. 30 minutes late returned +4.1%. An hour late returned -2.5%.
  • The market prices the result in slowly. An hour after the whale bought, the price was up 13.7 cents on the bets that went on to win and down 10.9 cents on the ones that lost.
  • Sports carries it: +10.3% at the whale's price, +10.8% ten minutes late, -2.4% an hour late, on 4,737 settled.
  • 17 of 26 scored traders were profitable to copy at their own price. 15 still were 10 minutes late. 8 were an hour late.

What we measured

We took every whale-sized buy on the Polymarket trade tape from August 23 to 25, deduped on transaction, outcome, price and shares, and grouped fills by the same wallet on the same outcome in the same second into one entry: 15,976 entries. Each copy is $100 at the price in question, held to resolution. Sells are not scored. The late price is the average of the first buys on the same outcome by anyone at or after the delay, searched for 5 minutes. Fees are not modelled, and the delay itself is the slippage being measured.

14,240 entries settled win or loss. An entry is scored only if its outcome traded after every one of the five delays, so every figure in this post is measured on the same 6,005 entries. That leaves out 8,235 settled entries in markets that ended or went quiet within the hour. A trader with fewer than 30 scored entries is not ranked. This is one measurement on one three-day window from a frozen export, modelled on a historical record, not realized returns.

Ten minutes late costs nothing

$100 on each of 6,005 settled entries, $600,500 staked per row. Price worse is the share of entries where the late price was at least half a cent higher.

Copy Average price Return on stake Profit Price worse
At the whale's price 61.2c +7.6% $45,747 0.0%
30 seconds late 61.2c +7.6% $45,830 29.9%
2 minutes late 61.3c +7.7% $46,442 33.3%
10 minutes late 62.1c +7.7% $46,274 41.3%
30 minutes late 64.3c +4.1% $24,650 49.7%
1 hour late 66.5c -2.5% -$14,868 55.5%

Why the first ten minutes are free

The median price did not move at all through 10 minutes. 30 seconds after the whale, 40.6% of entries were within half a cent of the whale's price, 29.9% were worse and 29.5% were better. The moves cancel out, which is why the return stays between +7.6% and +7.7%.

By an hour, 55.5% of entries cost at least half a cent more and the average price paid rose from 61.2 cents to 66.5 cents. Profit on the same entries went from $45,747 to -$14,868.

The price walks toward the result

Average move from the whale's price, in cents. 3,938 entries won and 2,067 lost.

Copy Bets that won Bets that lost
30 seconds late +0.0c -0.1c
2 minutes late +0.2c -0.2c
10 minutes late +1.7c -0.7c
30 minutes late +6.6c -3.5c
1 hour late +13.7c -10.9c

What the late copy is paying for

Winners get more expensive and losers get cheaper, and it happens slowly. After 10 minutes the drift is +1.7 cents on winners and -0.7 on losers. After an hour it is +13.7 and -10.9. A late copier buys the winners dearer and the losers cheaper, and with 65.6% of these bets winning, that trade works against you.

The whales are early. The market comes round to them, just not in the first ten minutes.

Where the delay hurts most

Return on stake at each copy delay.

Cut Settled Whale's price 10 min late 30 min late 1 hour late
Sports 4,737 +10.3% +10.8% +6.4% -2.4%
Culture 1,157 -2.5% -3.8% -4.7% -2.7%
Priced 20c to 50c 1,648 +13.3% +11.4% +8.0% -1.1%
Priced 50c to 80c 3,270 +5.9% +6.9% +1.4% -5.0%
Priced 80c to 95c 620 +5.0% +6.0% +6.2% +2.0%
Priced 95c and up 441 -3.1% -3.2% -3.3% -2.9%
Bets of $10k to $25k 784 -4.3% -3.4% -4.6% -13.4%
Bets of $100k and up 53 +16.7% +16.9% +11.9% +6.6%

The best traders need the fastest copy

The edge that decays is the edge that was there. Culture bets returned -2.5% at the whale's price and -2.7% an hour late, so there was nothing to lose. Sports and bets priced 20c to 50c had the most to give up.

ferrariChampions2026 is the clearest case: 433 scored entries, +20.0% at their price, +18.5% ten minutes late, +10.7% at 30 minutes and -5.5% an hour late. SPCEXBUYER went from +19.1% at their price to +27.3% at 10 minutes and -27.1% an hour late.

The number one trader held up. Djdjdjekekek returned +78.5% at their price and +62.9% an hour late across 66 entries. 0x4f2 went the other way, +16.1% at their price and +68.7% an hour late.

The Polymarket traders with the best copy record

Traders with at least 30 scored entries, ranked by return at their own price. 919 traders had fewer and are not ranked.

Trader Settled Win rate Their price 10 min late 30 min late 1 hour late
Djdjdjekekek 66 84.8% +78.5% +81.7% +64.8% +62.9%
plonker2026 35 62.9% +41.2% +41.3% +37.8% +37.1%
AV23IUa 39 69.2% +33.6% +30.3% +27.3% +28.8%
ferrariChampions2026 433 67.0% +20.0% +18.5% +10.7% -5.5%
danielwolfmorales3pddb6dl6 52 57.7% +19.9% +12.5% -8.4% -25.0%
SPCEXBUYER 102 66.7% +19.1% +27.3% +14.5% -27.1%
fkigedgjdgwbg 32 100.0% +16.1% +6.0% +0.4% +0.1%
0x4f2 72 66.7% +16.1% +24.8% +29.8% +68.7%
0x32b4…8b21 73 69.9% +13.6% +14.2% +2.8% -5.9%
RN1 128 69.5% +11.5% +12.7% +6.4% +3.8%
quavoo 39 71.8% +7.7% +6.8% +8.4% +2.1%
GoalLineGhost 62 79.0% +7.2% +8.8% +7.4% -1.6%

The ones a late copy loses on

9 of the 17 traders who were profitable at their own price were negative an hour late. danielwolfmorales3pddb6dl6 went from +19.9% to -25.0% on 52 entries. swisstony, 174 entries, went from +7.1% to -6.8%.

9 of 26 were losing even at their own price, so no copy speed helps. The worst was 0x3dfb…abaf at -28.7% on 59 entries.

reddit.com
u/DubsWasASaint — 18 days ago
▲ 6 r/Kalshi

Success with copy trading?

Thinking about a strategy copying large buys on markets (with some caveats). Wondering if anyone on here has found success or had any thoughts on it?

reddit.com
u/DubsWasASaint — 5 months ago
▲ 5 r/Polymarket

Success with copy trading large accounts on Polymarket?

Has anyone tried a large scale copy trading effort and found success? Curious how that experience has been. Thank you

reddit.com
u/DubsWasASaint — 5 months ago
▲ 4 r/PredictionsMarkets

I analyzed 13,709 resolved whale trades on Polymarket and Kalshi. Here's whats worth copy-trading.

I run a tracker that logs every meaningful-sized opening whale trade on Polymarket and Kalshi, holds it through resolution, and records the paper PnL. After 13,709 resolved trades, the practical question I wanted to answer was: if you're going to copy-trade whales, where should you actually point your capital?

Most of the feed is not worth copying. The whole-population aggregate is not where the money is. There are two slices where it is, and the boundaries are sharp.

  1. Crypto contracts. 84.3% win rate across 235 resolved trades, and the only category in the dataset with a positive aggregate paper PnL. Sports has 10x the volume and a 60% win rate, and is not net positive. Politics is 81% and roughly flat. Crypto is the only one where the dollars come out ahead, most likely because the same wallets holding the underlying on-chain are placing the bets.
  2. Long shot entries under 25¢. 30.6% win rate across 294 resolved trades, and the only entry-price bucket with a positive aggregate paper PnL. Every other price bucket loses money on net, including the 89% win-rate favorite bucket. Payout asymmetry beats win rate; the trades that pay are the ones that feel uncomfortable at the moment of entry.

Honorable mention: finance contracts are 91% win rate with essentially flat PnL. Doesn't make or lose money, useful as a variance-smoothing supplement, not an engine.

Happy to go deeper on specific categories, wallets, or individual trades in the comments.

reddit.com
u/DubsWasASaint — 5 months ago