Currently training in Florida weather for Philadelphia Marathon, help to estimate pace equivalency.
Agree? Anything to add?
Doing some training with hills as well though mostly flat in FL.
Aware of Philadelphia hills...
Thanks
Philadelphia should feel substantially easier than Tampa in your current August training conditions...."
| Effort | Tampa now | Philly equivalent |
|---|---|---|
| Zone 2 easy | 10:28/mi / 6:30/km | 9:15–9:40/mi / 5:45–6:01/km |
| Steady / Zone 3 | ~9:15/mi / 5:45/km | 8:30–8:55/mi / 5:17–5:33/km |
| Marathon effort | ~9:30–9:45/mi / 5:54–6:04/km | ~8:50–9:15/mi / 5:29–5:44/km |
| Sub-4 target | — | 9:09/mi / 5:41/km |
Tampa now vs. Philadelphia Marathon
The 2026 Philadelphia Marathon is November 22, 2026.
| Factor | Tampa now / August | Philadelphia late November |
|---|---|---|
| Typical temp | ~90°F / 32°C | ~48–56°F / 9–13°C |
| Typical morning | ~76–82°F | ~39–48°F |
| Humidity | Very high | Moderate |
| Dew point | ~75°F / 24°C | ~35°F / 2°C |
| Muggy conditions | Essentially 100% in August | Essentially 0% |
| Altitude | Near sea level | Near sea level |
| Elevation gain | Depends on route | ~651 ft / 198 m |
| Main advantage | — | Cool, dry air |
Tampa's August conditions are particularly brutal for running: daily highs around 90°F, lows around 76°F, with essentially continuous muggy conditions.
Philadelphia in November averages roughly 56°F high / 39°F low, 64% RH and a 35°F dew point. More importantly, November has essentially no muggy conditions.
So you're effectively training in:
90°F / 75°F dew point → racing around 40–50°F / 30–40°F dew point.
That's a massive physiological difference.
How much easier?
For you specifically, I would estimate:
Current Tampa pace → Philadelphia equivalent
If you're running at the same cardiovascular effort:
~5–10% faster is a reasonable expectation.
On a particularly brutal Tampa day, the difference could approach 10–15%, but I wouldn't automatically assume that much.
"Philadelphia should feel substantially easier than Tampa in your current August training conditions...."
| Effort | Tampa now | Philly equivalent |
|---|---|---|
| Zone 2 easy | 10:28/mi / 6:30/km | 9:15–9:40/mi / 5:45–6:01/km |
| Steady / Zone 3 | ~9:15/mi / 5:45/km | 8:30–8:55/mi / 5:17–5:33/km |
| Marathon effort | ~9:30–9:45/mi / 5:54–6:04/km | ~8:50–9:15/mi / 5:29–5:44/km |
| Sub-4 target | — | 9:09/mi / 5:41/km |