Which NHL teams actually draft well? I ran a 20+ year model to find out
I recently spent some time analyzing NHL drafts from 2000 to 2023 to try to answer a simple question:
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Which organizations actually maximize their draft picks over the long run?
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Instead of just looking at games played or point totals, I built a model that evaluates each pick in context:
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Each player is compared to the 20 players drafted before and after them
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This creates a “local talent window” around every selection
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The goal is to estimate what was actually available at the time of the pick
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From there, every draft pick receives a score:
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50 = best player available
Above 50 = steal
Below 50 = bust
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Some interesting patterns emerge when you aggregate 20+ years of data across all 32 teams.
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In particular, draft performance appears to vary much more consistently across organizations than I expected.
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If people are interested, I can share the full rankings and methodology breakdown.